The Worksheet, a fantasy football overview by Rich Hribar, breaking down everything you need to know for the Week 1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Dallas Cowboys Sunday Night Football game.
| Tampa Bay | Rank | @ | Dallas | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | Spread | 1.5 | ||
| 26 | Implied Total | 24.5 | ||
| 29.9 | 2 | Points/Gm | 30.4 | 1 |
| 20.9 | 7 | Points All./Gm | 21.2 | 8 |
| 67.5 | 3 | Plays/Gm | 67.9 | 2 |
| 64.5 | 22 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 63.6 | 19 |
| 5.9 | 3 | Off. Yards/Play | 5.9 | 4 |
| 5.2 | 9 | Def. Yards/Play | 5.5 | 19 |
| 33.54% | 32 | Rush% | 40.39% | 22 |
| 66.46% | 1 | Pass% | 59.61% | 11 |
| 33.71% | 1 | Opp. Rush % | 40.79% | 12 |
| 66.29% | 32 | Opp. Pass % | 59.21% | 21 |
- The Buccaneers ranked third in the NFL in points per drive (2.59) while Dallas ranked eighth (2.46).
- Tampa Bay (92.0) and Dallas (87.2) were the top two teams in non-passing fantasy points per game for offenses in 2021.
- 75.9% of the yardage gained by the Buccaneers in 2021 came via passing, the highest rate in the league.
- 72.8% of the yardage allowed by the Buccaneers in 2021 came via passing, the third highest rate in the league.
- The Cowboys were a league's best 13-5 (72.2%) against the spread in 2021, including going 3-1 as an underdog.
- The Cowboys averaged 6.2 yards per play with Tyron Smith on the field in 2021 (which would have led the league over a full season) compared to 5.7 yards year play with him off the field (11th).
- Dallas averaged 5.5 yards per play with both Smith and La'El Collins off the field (16th).
Quarterback
Tom Brady: Even at age 44, Brady showed no signs of slowing down for fantasy, throwing for 5,316 yards and 43 touchdowns while attempting a league-high 42.3 passes per game.
The Tampa Bay offseason has been a mixed bag. The Bucs lost Rob Gronkowski and Ali Marpet to retirement. Center Ryan Jensen suffered a potentially season-long injury. Aaron Stinnie was then lost for the season as Jensen’s backup, leaving Robert Hainsey to start at center.
To compound things, Tristan Wirfs is also dealing with an oblique injury, but he has a shot to play on Sunday.
This is a far cry from the fortune this team had up front in 2021 when the Buccaneers had the same five offensive linemen on the field for a league-high 88% of their offensive snaps.
Brady was pressured on just 20% of his dropbacks in 2021, the lowest rate in the league. When he did face pressure, Brady completed just 44.8% of his passes (29th in the league) for 5.6 yards per pass attempt (25th).
On the other side of the coin, the Bucs have added Shaq Mason and Julio Jones, Russell Gage has been an ascending player, they drafted one of the best receiving backs in this class in Rachaad White, and Chris Godwin has avoided the PUP list in training camp, which could signal an earlier return than expected.
There is more fragility with this offense than a year ago, but Brady also has had just 183 dropbacks (including the postseason) in Tampa Bay with all of Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Rob Gronkowski, and Antonio Brown on the field. There has always been a lot of moving bodies in the lineup and Brady has delivered with what has been available.
Brady put up 27.2 points against Dallas at home to kick off the 2021 season, completing 32-of-50 passes for 379 yards with four touchdown passes and a pair of interceptions. The Cowboys thrived on takeaways, leading the NFL with a league-high 26 interceptions a year ago, but they were a boom or bust defense, allowing 7.1 yards per pass attempt (18th) and 11.9 yards per completion (29th).
The moving parts in this offense do provide some foundation for doubt in showcasing a high ceiling, but Brady kicks off the season as a QB1 option.