The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Week 16 matchup between the Cowboys and Buccaneers.
Find a breakdown of every Week 16 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.
| Tampa Bay | Rank | @ | Dallas | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -4 | Spread | 4 | ||
| 26.25 | Implied Total | 22.25 | ||
| 28.8 | 4 | Points/Gm | 21.3 | 19 |
| 23.3 | 19 | Points All./Gm | 27.1 | 30 |
| 63.3 | 12 | Plays/Gm | 65.2 | 5 |
| 64.3 | 26 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 61.4 | 14 |
| 6.1 | 6 | Off. Yards/Play | 5 | 25 |
| 5.6 | 21 | Def. Yards/Play | 5.8 | 31 |
| 43.91% | 15 | Rush% | 37.24% | 27 |
| 56.09% | 18 | Pass% | 62.76% | 6 |
| 37.44% | 3 | Opp. Rush % | 46.40% | 22 |
| 62.56% | 30 | Opp. Pass % | 53.60% | 11 |
- Tampa Bay is 8-1 this season when scoring first, compared to 0-5 when its opponent scores first.
- Tampa Bay is 5-2 against the spread on the road.
- Dallas is 1-6 against the spread at home this season.
- Dallas has allowed 2.84 points per drive at home this season, 31st in the league.
- Tampa Bay has allowed 1.51 points per drive over their past five games, 3rd in the league.
- Dallas has scored a touchdown on 11.5% of their possessions at home this season, 31st in the league.
- The Buccaneers have scored 24 or more points 11 times this season, tied for the most in the league.
- The Cowboys have turned the ball over on a league-high 20.5% of their possessions at home.
Trust = spike production for that player
Quarterback
Baker Mayfield: Mayfield had his highest-scoring week (28.0 points) since Week 4 on Sunday, completing 22-of-27 passes for 288 yards with 4 touchdowns.
He did throw an interception (his 12th over his past 9 games), but he kept up his high output since returning from their bye.
Since the Bucs returned in Week 12, Mayfield has completed 71.4% of his passes (7th) for 9.3 yards per pass attempt (2nd) and a 6.7% touchdown rate (7th).
He has delivered three QB1 scoring weeks over that run.
He runs into another solid spot as a QB1 against a Dallas team that is 22nd in passing points allowed per attempt (0.463).
Mayfield is 7th among quarterbacks in passing points per attempt (0.528).
If there is one potential hiccup, it will be if Dallas can get to Mayfield.
The Cowboys are 3rd in the NFL in pressure rate (38.2%)
Mayfield is 2nd in the NFL with a 56.9% completion rate when pressured, but his 6.3 Y/A dips to 16th while his 1.4% touchdown rate is ahead of Deshaun Watson (1.4%) and Will Levis (1.3%).
When kept clean, Mayfield has 8.1 Y/A (11th) and a 7.9% touchdown rate (2nd).
Cooper Rush: Rush had a strong week in Carolina, ending the week as QB8 (19.1 points).
He threw 3 touchdown passes, the 3rd time he has thrown multiple touchdowns in four weeks.
Rush has provided usable lines for 2QB gamers, finishing QB18 or higher in four of his past five games.
On paper, this is not a tough matchup for gamers going back to Rush as a QB2, but there is some push and pull here.
The Bucs have allowed 16.2 passing points per game (29th).
But they have been better over this lighter run of opponents.
Since their bye, the Bucs have allowed only 5.9 yards per pass attempt and a 2.6% touchdown rate.
They have faced Tommy DeVito, Bryce Young, Aidan O’Connell, and Justin Herbert over that stretch.
Rush is in the same company as those first three passers.
He has been good against the blitz, something we know the Bucs will do.
Tampa Bay is 2nd in the NFL in blitz rate (35.1% of dropbacks).
When blitzed, Rush has averaged 8.4 Y/A (12th) with an 8.7% touchdown rate (8th).
Running Back
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Learn MoreMore Week 16 Fantasy Breakdowns From The Worksheet:
| Matchup | Time |
|---|---|
| Broncos @ Chargers -- FREE | Thursday Night Football |
| Texans @ Chiefs -- FREE | Saturday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Steelers @ Ravens -- FREE | Saturday -- 4:30 p.m. ET |
| Giants @ Falcons | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Lions @ Bears | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Browns @ Bengals | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Titans @ Colts | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Rams @ Jets | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Eagles @ Commanders | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Cardinals @ Panthers | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Vikings @ Seahawks | Sunday -- 4:05 p.m. ET |
| Patriots @ Bills | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Jaguars @ Raiders | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| 49ers @ Dolphins | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Bucs @ Cowboys | Sunday Night Football |
| Saints @ Packers -- FREE | Monday Night Football |