As part of the Sharp Football Draft Kit, Raymond Summerlin is posting a fantasy football preview for all 32 NFL teams.
This preview includes advanced stats, the fantasy football outlook for Baker Mayfield, Chris Godwin, Mike Evans, Rashaad White, and every other notable Buccaneer, and in-depth analysis of the coaching staff, passing game, and rushing attack.
Find a link to every team preview in our Draft Kit Hub.
Highlights:
- Baker Mayfield finished 33rd out of 33 qualifying quarterbacks in EPA per dropback and 29th in off-target rate last season.
- Chris Godwin finished as the WR19 in points per game last season but was the WR69 in fantasy points per target.
- 39.1% of Mike Evans’ career targets have come at least 15 yards downfield. Over the last two seasons, Mayfield has been inaccurate on 31.2% of his attempts that travel at least 15 yards.
2022 Buccaneers Stats (NFL Rank):
- Points: 313 (25th)
- Total Offense: 5,894 (14th)
- Plays: 1,159 (1st)
- Offensive TDs: 31 (25th)
- Points Per Drive: 1.6 (26th)
- EPA+ Per Play: -3.0 (20th)
- Situation Neutral Pace: 29.76 seconds (6th)
2023 Buccaneers Coaching Staff:
- Head Coach: Todd Bowles
- Offensive Coordinator: Dave Canales
Tampa’s offense will look significantly different in 2023.
The biggest change is obviously the retirement of Tom Brady, but unsurprisingly given how the offense performed in 2022, OC Byron Leftwich is also gone.
Seahawks QBs coach Dave Canales will replace Leftwich moving forward.
Canales had been with the Seahawks since 2010 and also spent a year working for Pete Carroll at USC. As the quarterbacks coach in 2022, Canales probably deserves some credit for Geno Smith’s Comeback Player of the Year Award.
If he can do the same for Baker Mayfield, they should start making his Hall of Fame jacket right then and there.
The new OC did not offer many details on his philosophy during his introductory press conference, but there was an interesting quote about balance:
“It’s not about establishing the run, it’s about establishing an attacking offense that makes you have to defend the run but also defend the pass. Then that’s when you become dangerous.”
Carroll-ball elicits “establish it” nightmares for fantasy players, but the Seahawks were not that team last year.
They were eighth with a 1.5 percent pass rate over expected, and they had the fifth-highest neutral pass rate.
They were 18th and 24th in those metrics in 2021, OC Shane Waldron’s first season with the team.
Of course, Canales has spent a lot more time in a run-heavy Seattle attack than the one we saw last year, and he also talked about “being dogged in your commitment to being able to run the ball in any given situation and any given personnel.”
Even if he wanted to run a more open offense, the quarterback room might force him into a hyper-run attack, à la the Falcons last season.
The Bucs will undoubtedly and rightly throw less than they did last season, and they may become one of the most run-heavy attacks in the league, especially if they do not trust Mayfield.
That said, I think there is at least a chance this is a mid-pack passing volume team, which I did not anticipate when first looking at this hire.
2022 Buccaneers Passing Stats:
- Dropbacks: 774 (1st)
- Neutral Pass Rate: 56.1% (8th)
- Pass Rate Over Expected: 4.2% (5th)
- Pressure Rate Allowed: 13.1% (1st)
- ESPN Pass Block Win Rate: 55% (24th)
2023 Buccaneers Passing Game Preview:
The Buccaneers will face the fifth-easiest passing schedule based on 2022 efficiency numbers.
- QB: Baker Mayfield, Kyle Trask
- WR: Mike Evans
- WR: Chris Godwin, Deven Thompkins
- WR: Trey Palmer, Rakim Jarrett
- TE: Cade Otton, Ko Kieft
Baker Mayfield was bad last season.
He finished 33rd out of 33 qualifying quarterbacks in EPA per dropback and 29th in off-target rate.
In his “better” run with the Rams late in the season, he was 18th out of 30 qualifying quarterbacks in EPA per dropback and dead last in off-target rate.
There was never much doubt about Mayfield winning the starting job in Tampa, but that says more about Kyle Trask than it does him.
The good news is Mayfield will have much better weapons this season in Chris Godwin and Mike Evans, and perhaps that can help him elevate his performance.
With only 1.39 rushing fantasy points per game in his career, however, Mayfield will need elite passing numbers to really be a fantasy factor, and that is tough to see.
As noted above, new OC Dave Canales is coming over from a surprisingly pass-happy Seahawks offense, but it seems unlikely the Bucs will once again lead the league in dropbacks even if they find themselves behind in a lot of games.
That is a concern for Chris Godwin, who finished as the WR19 in points per game last season but the WR69 in fantasy points per target.
His career lows in yards per catch (9.8) and air yards per target (5.5) last season can possibly be explained by the ACL injury that ended his 2021 and the hamstring injury that limited him early in the season.
He also is a strong bet to lead the team in targets again given the way he is used and the rest of the depth chart behind Mike Evans.
Godwin’s WR31 draft cost is fine, but real high-end upside might not be there for him this year.
As for Evans, he notched his ninth straight 1,000-yard season in 2022, but his days of being a front-end elite wideout could be closing.
Evans was targeted on 20.1% of his routes last season, which was 48th among all wide receivers to run 100 or more pass routes. His 1.75 yards per route run ranked 35th among the same group.
39.1% of Evans’ career targets have come at least 15 yards downfield, and Mayfield has struggled to be accurate in those areas over the last couple of seasons.
Over the last two seasons, Mayfield has been inaccurate on 31.2% of his attempts that travel at least 15 yards. That would have been 29th among 33 qualified quarterbacks last season.
Evans did lead the team with 11 end zone targets last season, and he is the favorite to lead the team in receiving touchdowns.
He has also been the best bet for 1,000 receiving yards since entering the league.
That makes him interesting at WR33 on Underdog, but avoiding this passing game altogether might be the right play.
With Russell Gage out for the season, it looks like sixth-round rookie Trey Palmer will get the first crack at the No. 3 job.
As it stands, he is only a name to know in Dynasty or for the waiver wire if Evans or Godwin go down.
Cade Otton caught 42-of-65 targets for 391 yards and two touchdowns in his rookie season.
His 9.3 yards per catch were 48th among tight ends while his 4.1 yards after the catch per reception sat 49th.
Still, Otton looks like the unquestioned TE1 in Tampa, and Mayfield has targeted the position on a solid 22.5% of his career attempts.
That gives Otton some fantasy life in deeper leagues.
2022 Buccaneers Rushing Stats:
- Rushing Attempts – Scrambles: 383 (26th)
- Yards Before Contact Per Attempt: 2.1 (31st)
- Football Outsiders’ Adjusted Line Yards: 4.07 (28th)
- ESPN’s Run Block Win Rate: 69% (30th)
2023 Buccaneers Running Game Preview:
The Buccaneers will face the ninth-easiest rushing schedule based on 2022 efficiency numbers.
- RB: Rachaad White, Chase Edmonds, Sean Tucker, Ke’Shawn Vaughn
- OL: Tristan Wirfs, Matt Feiler, Robert Hainsey, Cody Mauch, Luke Goedeke
Rachaad White is coming off a bad rookie season.
Among 44 backs with 100 or more carries in 2022, White ranked:
- 38th in yards per carry (3.8 YPC)
- 33rd in EPA per rush (-0.11)
- 42nd in the rate of runs for 10 or more yards (6.6%)
- 43rd in yards created after contact per carry (2.29)
He was nearly as bad as teammate Leonard Fournette, who has yet to find a job for 2023.
With Fournette gone, however, White looks like the clear No. 1 back in Tampa, and they have treated him that way in the preseason.
He was held out until the final preseason game, in which he played every snap with the first-team offense.
He finished that game with seven carries for 39 yards and a target on 17 snaps.
It is possible Chase Edmonds will take on a lot of the passing downs, but White left college with an outstanding receiving profile.
That did not translate last season – 1.13 yards per route run (26th) and 5.8 yards per catch – but it opens the opportunity for a three-down role for White.
Even in a bad offense, that kind of usage would make him a value in fantasy drafts if he can take a step forward in his second season.
Given how bad he was as a rookie, that is a big if, but that is why White is available in the seventh round.
Another name to watch in this backfield is Sean Tucker, who likely would have been drafted if not for a medical flag at the Combine.
He easily made the initial 53-man roster and could serve as the No. 2 back as soon as Week 1.
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