The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Week 6 matchup between the Saints and Buccaneers.
Find a breakdown of every Week 6 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.
| Tampa Bay | Rank | @ | New Orleans | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Spread | -2 | ||
| 21.75 | Implied Total | 23.75 | ||
| 25.4 | 9 | Points/Gm | 28 | 4 |
| 22.8 | 17 | Points All./Gm | 19.2 | 8 |
| 57.8 | 28 | Plays/Gm | 58.8 | 26 |
| 68 | 30 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 63.8 | 23 |
| 5.6 | 13 | Off. Yards/Play | 5.5 | 16 |
| 5.6 | 21 | Def. Yards/Play | 5.6 | 22 |
| 41.52% | 20 | Rush% | 52.04% | 5 |
| 58.48% | 13 | Pass% | 47.96% | 28 |
| 36.18% | 4 | Opp. Rush % | 37.62% | 5 |
| 63.82% | 29 | Opp. Pass % | 62.38% | 28 |
- After averaging a league-high 4.33 points per drive in Weeks 1-2, the Saints have averaged 1.75 yards over the past three weeks (22nd).
- Over the first two weeks, only 37.5% of the New Orleans set of downs reached third down (5th). That rate is 50.7% since (27th).
- Just 23.5% of the Tampa Bay drives have failed to gain a new set of downs, 2nd in the league.
- The Saints are 4th (24.5%) and 13th over the past three weeks (28.6%).
- Tampa Bay is 3rd in the NFL with a 50.9% success rate on passing plays.
- 25.2% of the Tampa Bay runs have failed to gain yardage, the highest rate in the league.
- The Saints have allowed a touchdown on 25% (4-of-16) of red zone possessions, the lowest rate in the league.
Trust = spike production for that player
Quarterback
Baker Mayfield: Mayfield has been a top-10 scorer in four of the opening five games this season.
The Bucs ran a season-low 50 plays on Thursday Night, but it was because they were so efficient.
Mayfield completed a season-high 79.2% of his passes with 3 touchdowns.
Atlanta could not impact him, pressuring Mayfield on only 6 out of 30 dropbacks.
That is the story of Mayfield's success in the early season.
Offensive Coordinator Liam Coen has Mayfield getting the ball out quickly.
He has attempted a career-high 29.4% of his passes at or behind the line of scrimmage, paired with a career-low 7.2% rate of throws 20 or more yards downfield.
His 2.43 seconds to release the ball is the quickest of his career.
As a byproduct, Mayfield has only been pressured on 28.7% of his dropbacks, the 7th-lowest percentage in the league.
When kept clean, Mayfield is 3rd in the NFL in rating (117.7), completing 74.6% of his passes (9th) for 8.1 yards per attempt (11th) and a league-high 10 touchdowns.
When pressured, Mayfield has completed 59.3% of his passes for 5.5 Y/A with 1 touchdown.
He has been sacked on a league-high 37.2% of his pressures.
That has been the path to success for this offense.
Tampa Bay is 4th in the NFL in points per drive without a sack (3.11) compared to 22nd when they take a sack (0.86).
The Saints have been good at getting to the quarterback to open the year.
They are 7th in pressure rate (38.1%).
Tampa Bay has faced only one team ahead of New Orleans: Denver in Week 3.
That was also the worst performance, by far, for this offense in a game this season.
Mayfield was QB28 that week (8.5 points).
No quarterback to face New Orleans this season has finished in the top half of weekly scoring.
That is because they have allowed only 1 touchdown pass.
They are giving up a lot of yardage, however.
Dak Prescott (293 yards), Jalen Hurts (311), and Patrick Mahomes (331) have all hit or flirted with 300 yards against them over the past four weeks.
I prefer to use Mayfield as a floor-based QB2, but New Orleans should have a regression in store in giving up more red zone scores and passing touchdowns moving forward.
Mayfield was the QB8 (22.9 points) and QB14 (16.3 points) in this matchup a year ago.
Saints QB Derek Carr suffered an oblique injury late on Monday Night and is expected to miss time.
The current line implies that Carr will play, but we will follow his weekly status.
Carr played through many injuries last year, starting multiple games when we thought he would miss time due to a shoulder sprain (three times) and a concussion in two different games.
Should Carr be unable to play, Jake Haener or Spencer Rattler will be in line to start.
Haener was 2-of-7 in relief of Carr on Monday Night.
This preseason, Haener was 24-of-43 (55.8%) for 6.3 Y/A without a touchdown or interception.
Rattler did not fare much better this preseason, completing 20-of-38 (52.6%) passes for 5.3 Y/A.
New Orleans has skidded the past three weeks as its offensive line has fallen apart.
Erick McCoy remains on injured reserve, Cesar Ruiz has missed the past two weeks, and Lucas Patrick played through a groin injury on Monday Night, going in and out of the lineup.
When pressured the past three games, Carr is 17-of-36 (47.2%) for only 4.4 yards per attempt with 2 touchdowns and 2 interceptions.
No quarterback in this class was pressured at a higher rate than Rattler in 2023.
Pressured on 37.0% of his dropbacks, Rattler was first in this class in on-target rate when pressured (74.5%).
But he took a sack on a class-high 8.7% of his dropbacks and 23.6% of his pressures.
Never giving us a season with front-end mobility, Rattler averaged just 8.5 rushing yards per game for his career.
Whichever option starts on Sunday, Rattler or Haener is best left as a flyer in 2QB formats.
The Bucs have recently been a target for us if you have to play either.
They have allowed a QB1 scorer in four of their five games, including three weeks in a row, which includes Bo Nix and allowing 509 yards through the air to Kirk Cousins last Thursday.
Running Back
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More Week 6 Fantasy Breakdowns From The Worksheet:
| Matchup | Time |
|---|---|
| 49ers @ Seahawks -- FREE | Thursday Night Football |
| Jaguars @ Bears | Sunday -- 9:30 a.m. ET (London) |
| Cardinals @ Packers | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Colts @ Titans | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Texans @ Patriots | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Bucs @ Saints | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Browns @ Eagles | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Commanders @ Ravens | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Chargers @ Broncos | Sunday -- 4:05 p.m. ET |
| Steelers @ Raiders | Sunday -- 4:05 p.m. ET |
| Lions @ Cowboys | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Falcons @ Panthers | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Bengals @ Giants | Sunday Night Football |
| Bills @ Jets -- FREE | Monday Night Football |
