The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Week 8 matchup between the Bucs and Bills on Thursday Night Football.
Find a breakdown of every Week 8 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.
| Tampa Bay | Rank | @ | Buffalo | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.5 | Spread | -8.5 | ||
| 17.0 | Implied Total | 25.5 | ||
| 17.2 | 26 | Points/Gm | 28.3 | 3 |
| 17.3 | 6 | Points All./Gm | 16.9 | 5 |
| 61.0 | 23 | Plays/Gm | 63.1 | 16 |
| 64.3 | 17 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 58.7 | 3 |
| 4.9 | 23 | Off. Yards/Play | 5.9 | 4 |
| 5.3 | 19 | Def. Yards/Play | 5.6 | 26 |
| 41.80% | 17 | Rush% | 42.08% | 16 |
| 58.20% | 16 | Pass% | 57.92% | 17 |
| 39.38% | 10 | Opp. Rush % | 42.09% | 12 |
| 60.62% | 23 | Opp. Pass % | 57.91% | 21 |
- Tampa Bay games are averaging a league-low 34.5 combined points per game.
- Tampa Bay has allowed a touchdown on 14.3% of opponent possessions, fifth in the league.
- 31.5% of the Buffalo possessions have resulted in a touchdown, third in the league.
- Buffalo has not scored a touchdown on 11 first-half possessions the past two weeks after scoring a touchdown on 10-of-28 (35.7%) prior.
- The Buccaneers have forced a turnover on a league-high 20.6% of opponent drives.
- Buffalo has forced a turnover on 19.2% of opponent drives, second in the league.
- Opponents have converted a league-high 50.0% of their third downs against Tampa Bay.
- Buffalo is allowing 5.6 yards per play with all of Matt Milano, DaQuan Jones, and Tre'Davious White off the field, 24th in the league.
- On those snaps, they have a success rate of 54.2% defensively (29th) and have allowed opponents to convert 53.3% of their third downs (32nd).
- Tampa Bay is averaging 4.5 yards per play on first down, 30th in the NFL.
- Buffalo is allowing 6.8 yards per play on first down, 31st in the NFL.
Trust = spike production for that player
Quarterback
Josh Allen: It was not a clean ride again on Sunday, but Allen still once again found his way to fantasy points.
He ended the week as QB4 (24.3 points) in part thanks to his fourth rushing touchdown over the past five weeks to go along with another two touchdowns through the air, the fourth game in a row in which he has thrown multiple touchdowns.
In the first half of games over the past two weeks, Allen is last in the NFL with a 42.0 rating, completing 17-of-34 passes (50.0%) for 186 yards (5.5 Y/A), zero touchdowns, and two interceptions.
After the break in those games, he is second in the NFL with a 130.6 rating, completing 29-of-37 passes (78.4%) for 248 yards (6.7 Y/A) with four touchdowns and zero interceptions.
New England was aggressive once again in this matchup, blitzing Allen on 43.5% of his dropbacks. On those plays, Allen was 10-of-19 (52.6%) for 102 yards (5.4 Y/A).
When Allen was not blitzed on Sunday, he completed 17-of-22 passes (77.3%) for 163 yards (7.4 Y/A).
We could see another blitz-heavy approach here from Tampa Bay, which is fourth in the NFL in blitz rate (37.2%).
Allen is going to remain a front-end fantasy quarterback.
The Bills have gone through a few of these mini-funks over the past few seasons, and Allen has consistently gotten there for fantasy, so any short-term caution as this offense works itself through this latest funk is only reserved for single-game DFS.
Once again, Buffalo has failed to provide a consistent target in this offense to pair with Stefon Diggs.
Allen is averaging 8.7 yards per throw with a first down or touchdown on 42.3% of his passes to Diggs but 7.4 yards per throw with a first down or touchdown on 36.7% of his passes to everyone else in this offense.
Tampa Bay has lived off turnovers defensively, but they are allowing 7.2 Y/A to opposing passers (22nd). Over the past two weeks, they have allowed 8.0 Y/A to Jared Goff and 10.0 Y/A to Desmond Ridder.
Baker Mayfield: It has not been sexy, but Mayfield has been delivering as a floor-based QB2 for fantasy.
He only averaged 6.5 yards per pass attempt with one touchdown pass on Sunday against the Falcons, but Mayfield coaxed that into a QB11 (16.2 points) scoring week by tacking on 32 rushing yards.
Mayfield has now thrown multiple touchdown passes in just two of his six games, but he is tracking to blow away his career rushing total to chip in other ways.
Through six games, Mayfield already has 99 rushing yards. He only had 89 over 12 games played a year ago, and his career-high is 165 yards on the ground, set back in 2020.
We won’t get to Mayfield as a streamer in 1QB leagues in a full week of games, but he does have some runway here to be a solid QB2 again.
The Bills have still only allowed one QB1 scorer on the season, but the injuries this Buffalo defense has sustained have shown up in recent weeks as noted in the bullet points.
Facing Trevor Lawrence, Tyrod Taylor, and Mac Jones over the past three weeks, the Bills have allowed a 71.8% completion rate (28th), 7.6 Y/A (22nd), and a 103.5 rating (27th).
Running Back
James Cook: After back-to-back weeks as RB36 and RB33, Cook was the RB7 on Sunday.
A week after Cook handled a season-low 51.9% of the Buffalo backfield touches and played behind Latavius Murray for the opening three drives, Cook bounced back on Sunday.
He handled 16-of-22 (72.7%) touches, turning them into 102 total yards, and caught his first touchdown of the season in the process.
That was Cook’s highest backfield share since Week 1. He had 76.5% of the running back rushes, his highest rate since Week 1.
Cook still played just 52.1% of the snaps while Murray played 45.1%, but all of the touches this week went through Cook.
Murray still is playing in long down-and-distance situations and the hurry-up offense, so we will surely run into more bouts of volatility here, especially since Cook still does not have a locked-in presence at the goal line.
That makes Cook a boom-or-bust RB2.
Tampa Bay has allowed some spike weeks to Tyler Allgeier (112 total yards) and D’Andre Swift (138 total yards), but they still have not allowed a rushing touchdown to a running back this season.
They are allowing 10.5 receiving points per game to backfields (25th), which is an area Cook can exploit.
Rachaad White: White once again found little to no room on the ground on Sunday as he rushed 13 times for 34 yards.
Out of 36 running backs with 50 or more carries this season, White currently ranks:
- 31st in yards per carry (3.2 YPC)
- 33rd in success rate (26.5%)
- 33rd in rate of runs for 10 or more yards (6.0%)
- 32nd in yards before contact per carry (0.86)
- 31st in yards after contact per carry (2.35)
42.2% of White’s carries this season have come against light boxes, which is seventh among that same group.
While White and this running game struggled again on Sunday, we did finally see White produce in the receiving game, positing season-highs in targets (six), catches (six), and receiving yards (65).
This is the part of White’s collegiate profile we have been waiting for and counting on to salvage his fantasy floor.
Buffalo is 20th in receiving points allowed per game to backs (9.5), so that is something that Tampa Bay can utilize again here.
On the ground, Buffalo has been an all-or-nothing run defense, especially since the loss of DaQuan Jones and Ed Oliver.
The Bills are third in the NFL in rate of runs allowed that do not gain any yards (23.5%) but also 29th in rate of runs allowed that gain 10 or more yards (14.7%).
They are allowing just 0.85 yards before contact on running back rushes (fourth) but have allowed a league-high 4.08 yards per carry after contact per rush to the position.
White is a volume-based RB2 with added floor appeal in full-PPR formats.
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Wide Receiver
Stefon Diggs (TRUST): Catching 6-of-12 targets for 58 yards and a touchdown, Diggs had his four-game streak with 100 yards snapped on Sunday.
While that streak came to an end, Diggs still found the end zone for the sixth time this season. Closing as WR11 this week, he has finished lower than WR13 just once over the opening seven weeks.
Diggs is the WR2 in team target share (33.1%), WR6 in the share of team air yards (44.3%), and has been targeted on 30.8% of his routes (WR3).
If Tampa Bay does get aggressive here, Diggs leads the team with a 37.5% target share when Josh Allen is blitzed and has averaged 3.68 yards per route against the blitz.
Tampa Bay has been beatable through lead wideouts.
They are allowing 17.6 points per game to opposing WR1 targets, 23rd in the league.
