The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Week 15 matchup between the Chargers and Bucs.
Find a breakdown of every Week 15 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.
| Tampa Bay | Rank | @ | LA Chargers | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Spread | -3.0 | ||
| 21.75 | Implied Total | 24.75 | ||
| 27.9 | 5 | Points/Gm | 21.3 | 20 |
| 23.8 | 22 | Points All./Gm | 15.9 | 1 |
| 63.0 | 13 | Plays/Gm | 58.4 | 30 |
| 65.5 | 29 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 62.4 | 20 |
| 6 | 5 | Off. Yards/Play | 5.3 | 17 |
| 5.6 | 22 | Def. Yards/Play | 5.2 | 7 |
| 42.74% | 17 | Rush% | 46.38% | 9 |
| 57.26% | 16 | Pass% | 53.62% | 24 |
| 38.26% | 5 | Opp. Rush % | 41.18% | 10 |
| 61.74% | 28 | Opp. Pass % | 58.82% | 23 |
- The Chargers have allowed 58.8 fewer points than Vegas implied totals entering the matchup, the best differential in the league.
- The Buccaneers are 7-1 when they score first compared to 0-5 when the opponent scores first.
- Tampa Bay has scored on 47.8% of their possessions on the road, second in the league.
- The Chargers have turned the ball over on a league-low 3.5% of their possessions.
- Tampa Bay has turned the ball over on 12.9% of their possessions, 25th in the league.
- 41.1% of the Chargers possessions fail to gain a first down, ahead of only the Jaguars (41.8%).
- 27.1% of the Tampa Bay possessions fail to gain a first down, 7th in the league. The league average is 31.6%.
- The Chargers have had 14 goal-to-go possessions, tied with New England for the fewest in the league.
- Tampa Bay has had 33 goal-to-go possessions, second in the league behind Detroit (39).
Trust = spike production for that player
Quarterback
Baker Mayfield: Mayfield bounced back last week (19.0 points) after a letdown against Carolina.
He threw for a season-high 10.2 yards per pass attempt and 3 touchdowns, his first game with multiple passing scores since Week 9.
Mayfield also threw another 2 interceptions.
He has thrown a league-high 11 interceptions over his past eight games.
Last week’s rebound came in a clean spot as a home favorite against another soft pass defense.
Things are different this week, so I want to push Mayfield down as a QB2.
If we run into a strong week, that’s great, but I don’t see this as a spot to chase it.
He goes from being at home with a 26-point team total against the Raiders to being a road underdog against the Chargers with an implied team total of under 22 points.
The Chargers' top-down defensive metrics have certainly been impacted by the offenses they have faced, but the bottom line is that they have not allowed many spike weeks to passers.
They have allowed over 8.0 yards per pass attempt twice in a game all season.
They are third in passing points allowed per game (11.4).
Mayfield has faced the top two teams in that department in Detroit and San Francisco.
He did get over for fantasy against Detroit (18.3 points) but only had 9.4 passing points in that game.
He had only 8.6 passing points against the 49ers.
Justin Herbert: After a five-game streak as a QB1 scoring, Herbert has posted QB31 (8.0 points) and QB19 (13.7 points) scoring weeks the past two weeks.
I mentioned last week that I believe we overvalued the consistency of Herbert’s rushing spike over his hot stretch since he is not primarily a runner by nature, just a better athlete capable of running.
We also have the impact of his surrounding pass catchers, which remains an ongoing issue.
Herbert has thrown 1 or fewer touchdown passes in 9-of-13 games and has not thrown more than 2 touchdowns in any game.
While all of those issues make Herbert a better floor-based QB2 capable of running hot, the surrounding elements are here to provide a path to an upside outcome.
The Chargers are home favorites with a solid team total as a starting point.
Tampa Bay has had its share of issues defensively, allowing 16.4 passing points per game (29th).
They have been better in recent weeks with the return of Jamel Dean and Zyon McCollum, but they also have faced Tommy DeVito, Bryce Young, and Aidan O’Connell over their past three games.
The Bucs just lost Antoine Winfield to injury as well.
Tampa Bay is still blitzing heavily under Todd Bowles, but they are playing much more zone coverage than previous versions of this defense.
They are third in the NFL in blitz rate (33.7% of dropbacks) but 25th in man coverage rate (20.7% of passing plays).
Herbert has been lukewarm against the blitz, completing 63.0% of his passes (13th) for 7.6 Y/A (17th) and a 4.0% touchdown rate (26th).
He has much stronger splits against zone coverage than man coverage, likely due to the state of his pass catchers this season outside of Ladd McConkey.
We are hoping McConkey is back this week.
Herbert has only completed 47.5% of his passes against man coverage (31st) for 6.1 Y/A (25th), but has a 71.8% completion rate (15th) and 8.3 Y/A (10th) against zone coverage.
If Herbert is going to use his legs again, this would be a good week.
Tampa Bay is 29th in rushing yardage allowed (26.1 yards per game) to passers.
Running Back
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More Week 15 Fantasy Breakdowns From The Worksheet:
| Matchup | Time |
|---|---|
| Rams @ 49ers -- FREE | Thursday Night Football |
| Chiefs @ Browns | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Bengals @ Titans | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Commanders @ Saints | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Ravens @ Giants | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Cowboys @ Panthers | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Jets @ Jaguars | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Dolphins @ Texans | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Colts @ Broncos | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Bills @ Lions | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Steelers @ Eagles | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Patriots @ Cardinals | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Bucs @ Chargers | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Packers @ Seahawks | Sunday Night Football |
| Bears @ Vikings -- FREE | Monday Night Football |
| Falcons @ Raiders -- FREE | Monday Night Football |
