The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Week 9 matchup between the Texans and Buccaneers.
Find a breakdown of every Week 9 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.
| Tampa Bay | Rank | @ | Houston | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | Spread | -2.5 | ||
| 18.75 | Implied Total | 21.25 | ||
| 17.3 | 27 | Points/Gm | 21.1 | 20 |
| 18.3 | 6 | Points All./Gm | 18.3 | 6 |
| 61.1 | 23 | Plays/Gm | 64.3 | 14 |
| 64.9 | 21 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 64.6 | 18 |
| 4.9 | 24 | Off. Yards/Play | 5.1 | 17 |
| 5.5 | 23 | Def. Yards/Play | 5.2 | 15 |
| 39.72% | 22 | Rush% | 43.78% | 12 |
| 60.28% | 11 | Pass% | 56.22% | 21 |
| 39.21% | 8 | Opp. Rush % | 42.48% | 13 |
| 60.79% | 25 | Opp. Pass % | 57.52% | 20 |
- Tampa Bay is averaging 9.3 plays per game that gain 10 or more yards, ahead of only the Giants (8.9).
- The Buccaneers are averaging 1.19 points per drive over their past three games (31st in the league) after averaging 1.83 points per drive prior (18th).
- The Buccaneers are 20th in dropback rate on first down play calls (50%).
- Tamp Bay is averaging 3.4 yards per first down rush, 30th in the league.
- Houston is last in the NFL in dropback rate on first down (40.4%) but is averaging 3.4 yards per first down run, 29th in the league.
- Tampa Bay is allowing 2.4 sacks plus turnovers per game, the fewest in the league.
- Houston is second in the league, allowing 2.7 sacks plus turnovers per game.
- Tampa Bay is allowing a league-high 36.8 yards per drive over their past three games.
- Houston is allowing 36.1 yards per drive over their past three games, 31st in the league.
- Tampa Bay is last in the league in the rate of runs to gain a first down or touchdown (16.8%)
- Houston is 31st at 17.9%.
Trust = spike production for that player
Quarterback
C.J. Stroud: Stroud came out of the bye and posted a season-low 5.6 passing points against the Panthers, completing 16-of-24 passes for 140 yards (5.8 Y/A) with no touchdowns or interceptions, adding a rushing touchdown.
Stroud was 22nd in completion rate below expectations (-1.1%). Since Week 4, only P.J. Walker has had a lower completion rate below expectations (-12.0%) than Stroud (-6.0%).
The Texans have not been doing Stroud many favors.
Houston has the lowest dropback rate on first down despite being one of the worst running teams in the league no matter the down and distance.
Houston ran the ball on 16 of 23 first downs on Sunday.
As a byproduct of the play calling, just 30.4% of Stroud’s pass attempts have come on first down, the lowest rate in the league. 34.2% have come on third down, the highest rate in the league. He leads the league in pass attempts (43) coming on third and long (needing seven or more yards).
Stroud is best as a floor-based QB2, but if you have to elevate him in 1QB formats based on the injuries and byes this week, we have a path to upside.
I would love to believe that Dameon Pierce being out and getting Laremy Tunsil back this week forces Bobby Slowik to get aggressive, but that takes a step of faith.
Regardless, the matchup is good.
Tampa Bay has allowed 8.5 yards per pass attempt since their Week 5 bye (29th in the league), allowing Jared Goff (8.5 Y/A), Desmond Ridder (10.0 Y/A), and Josh Allen (8.1 Y/A) efficiency through the air.
Against the blitz, Stroud is third in the NFL with a 119.3 rating, only behind Tua Tagovailoa and Justin Herbert.
He is averaging 9.2 yards per pass attempt against the blitz, which leads the league.
Tampa Bay is blitzing 36.1% of the time, sixth in the league.
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