The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Week 5 matchup between the 49ers and Cardinals.
Find a breakdown of every Week 5 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.
| Arizona | Rank | @ | San Francisco | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.5 | Spread | -7.5 | ||
| 21.5 | Implied Total | 29.0 | ||
| 24.0 | 13 | Points/Gm | 25.8 | 8 |
| 26.5 | 29 | Points All./Gm | 20.5 | 10 |
| 58.3 | 24 | Plays/Gm | 65.5 | 4 |
| 61.3 | 21 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 55.0 | 3 |
| 5.7 | 12 | Off. Yards/Play | 6.3 | 3 |
| 5.8 | 28 | Def. Yards/Play | 5.4 | 19 |
| 49.36% | 8 | Rush% | 49.24% | 9 |
| 50.64% | 25 | Pass% | 50.76% | 24 |
| 54.29% | 31 | Opp. Rush % | 42.27% | 11 |
| 45.71% | 2 | Opp. Pass % | 57.73% | 22 |
- The 49ers have been favored in 24 straight games (including the postseason), the longest ongoing streak in the league. The next closest team is at six games.
- 39.2% of the San Francisco set of downs have reached third down (3rd in the league), while a league-low 13.3% have resulted in a third and long (needing 7 or more yards).
- The 49ers have converted 50.0% of the red zone trips for touchdowns (17th) after a league-high 67.2% in 2023.
- San Francisco is producing a new first down or touchdown on 9.3% more of their early down plays than their opponent, the largest differential in the league.
- Arizona is at -4.1% in the same category, 26th in the league.
- Arizona allows a first down or touchdown on a league-high 41.1% of passing plays.
- Arizona has a 44.6% success rate in defending opponent passing plays, which is the lowest rate in the league.
Trust = spike production for that player
Quarterback
Brock Purdy (TRUST): Purdy only has one QB1 scoring week to open the season, and passing touchdown regression may finally be catching up to him (see above for the 49ers' dip in red zone output).
That said, he has been excellent in every other department.
Purdy leads the NFL in passing yards (1,130) and yards per pass attempt (9.3).
Purdy is 12th in the NFL in completion rate (68.9%), but here is the catch…
He is last in the league in expected completion rate (60.0%).
He has completed 8.9% of his passes over expectations, which is better than Jayden Daniels (8.7%).
That is because Purdy is winging it in this era of gun-shy offenses.
Purdy has a league-high 37 completions on throws 10 or more yards downfield, 11 more than the next-highest passer.
He is completing 66.1% of those throws. The league average is 46.6%.
He has 231 more passing yards on those attempts than the next passer.
As a byproduct, only 27.3% of his yards are after the catch, tied for the lowest rate in the league. That was 47.5% last year (16th).
Purdy is throwing to wide receivers 67.8% of the time this season compared to rates of 53.0% and 54.6% the past two seasons with Christian McCaffrey.
But wait, there’s more.
Because the 49ers have been playing without McCaffrey, defenses have been playing more 2-high than Purdy has ever seen.
52.8% of his dropbacks have come with the middle of the field open compared to rates of 34.8% and 35.8% in his first two seasons.
Purdy and Kyle Shanahan are proving you can still attack shell coverage downfield.
There will be spike weeks for Purdy once the touchdowns come.
This is an excellent place to start.
Arizona is 28th in passing points allowed per attempt (0.517). They are 31st in yards allowed per pass attempt (8.5), last in completion rate (78.6%), and 22nd in touchdown rate (4.9%) allowed to passers.
In two starts against Arizona last season, Purdy completed 36-of-46 (78.3%) of his passes for 11.4 yards per pass attempt and 5 touchdowns.
Kyler Murray: Based on pre-game expectations, Murray may have had the most disappointing game of the fantasy season last Sunday.
At home against a Washington defense that had allowed 17 QB1 scorers over the past 21 games, Murray completed 16-of-22 passes for a season-low 142 yards with a touchdown.
After rushing for 45 or more yards in the first three games, Murray ran one time for 3 yards.
Over the opening month, Murray closed those weeks as QB15, QB1, QB17, and QB24.
The Cardinals are not doing many creative things in the passing game.
I would not stream for Murray in most cases, but I have tempered my expectations based on the results thus far in this spot.
While the 49ers carry a reputation, they have had some vulnerable moments to open the year.
San Francisco is 25th in passing points allowed per attempt (0.468), 25th in yards allowed per attempt (7.7), and 29th in yards allowed per completion (12.1).
That said, they have only allowed one QB1 scoring week.
When Murray faced this defense a year ago, he was QB21 (13.3 points), throwing for 5.4 yards per attempt but adding 49 rushing yards.
Murray’s legs are always a potential out for him in fantasy, and this matchup could end up higher scoring if San Francisco allows big plays like they did in Minnesota and Los Angeles.
Running Back
To continue reading this article
and gain access to The Worksheet and all of Rich's regular content, including positional rankings, DFS picks, and chats, click below to learn more about our fantasy package
Learn MoreMore Week 5 Fantasy Breakdowns From The Worksheet:
| Matchup | Time |
|---|---|
| Bucs @ Falcons -- FREE | Thursday Night Football |
| Jets @ Vikings | Sunday -- 9:30 a.m. ET (London) |
| Panthers @ Bears | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Ravens @ Bengals | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Dolphins @ Patriots | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Browns @ Commanders | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Colts @ Jaguars | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Bills @ Texans | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Raiders @ Broncos | Sunday -- 4:05 p.m. ET |
| Cardinals @ 49ers | Sunday -- 4:05 p.m. ET |
| Packers @ Rams | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Giants @ Seahawks | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Cowboys @ Steelers | Sunday Night Football |
| Saints @ Chiefs -- FREE | Monday Night Football |