The Worksheet, a fantasy football overview by Rich Hribar, breaking down everything you need to know for the Week 17 Arizona Cardinals at Dallas Cowboys Sunday afternoon game.
| Arizona | Rank | @ | Dallas | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5 | Spread | -5.5 | ||
| 22.8 | Implied Total | 28.3 | ||
| 26.3 | 10 | Points/Gm | 30.5 | 1 |
| 20.4 | 5 | Points All./Gm | 20.5 | 7 |
| 65.5 | 8 | Plays/Gm | 69 | 2 |
| 60.9 | 6 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 62.7 | 13 |
| 5.8 | 11 | Off. Yards/Play | 5.9 | 5 |
| 5.3 | 12 | Def. Yards/Play | 5.6 | 20 |
| 44.40% | 9 | Rush% | 40.97% | 19 |
| 55.60% | 24 | Pass% | 59.03% | 14 |
| 41.47% | 13 | Opp. Rush % | 38.72% | 8 |
| 58.53% | 20 | Opp. Pass % | 61.28% | 25 |
- The Cowboys are league-best 12-3 against the spread this season.
- Arizona is 7-1 against the spread on the road this season, tied for the best mark in the league.
- The Cardinals are 5-0 against the spread (all on the road) as an underdog, winning all five games outright.
- The Cowboys have a league-leading 33 takeaways on defense, their most in a season since 1999.
- 75.0% (24-of-32) of the touchdowns allowed by Arizona have been via passing, 31st in the league.
- Dallas is allowing a league-low 31.2% conversion rate on third downs this season. League average is 40.2%.
Trust = spike production for that player
Quarterback
Dak Prescott: After three straight down weeks, Prescott rebounded and roasted a depleted Washington defense on Sunday night for 322 yards and four touchdowns…in the first half. He then threw just four more passes before taking the rest of the night off.
When Prescott has hit for fantasy, he has hit big. Over his past eight games, he has four weeks as a top-three scorer and the other four as QB20 or lower. The Cardinals have not allowed a week higher than QB6 on the season, but they have allowed three consecutive top-10 scoring weeks to Matthew Stafford (23.5 points), Jared Goff (20.6 points), and Carson Wentz (17.4 points). Arizona has allowed multiple passing touchdowns in four straight games. Arizona has allowed the fewest rushing touchdowns in the league, which has funneled the scores they do allow through the air. Prescott is still a strong QB1 option.
Kyler Murray: Murray has posted his two lowest games of the season in yards per pass attempt with 6.3 Y/A and 5.7 Y/A against the Lions and Colts. The easiest denominator to reach for is the loss of DeAndre Hopkins. While that surely is part of the drag on the passing game, Murray has now averaged 232.6 passing yards per game over his past seven games (with a high game of 274 yards) after averaging 331.2 yards per game (with a low of 268 yards) over the opening five games this season.
We also saw Kliff Kingsbury coax 9.6 Y/A out of Colt McCoy in Week 9 and 328 yards from him Week 11 without Hopkins available. This offense still has scheme and talent they can access for production. Also, as bad as Murray was on Christmas, he still managed to find his way to 21.9 fantasy points since he can still scoot, adding 74 yards on the ground. Murray has now rushed for 136 yards in his three games since returning to the lineup after rushing for 208 yards over the opening nine games this season. Dallas is 23rd in the league in rushing points allowed per game (3.3) to opposing quarterbacks.
Dallas has been on fire defensively. They are up to sixth in the league in pressure rate (26.5%) and fourth in passing points allowed per game (12.6). The last time the Cowboys allowed more than two touchdown passes in a game was in the season opener. That said, Dallas has also had a fortunate run out of opponents, especially of late. The Cowboys have had five games against fantasy QB1 scorers this season, with just two of those games coming over their past 12 games. Over the past month, they have drawn Taylor Heinicke twice, Mike Glennon, and Taysom Hill.
Anticipating a ceiling game from Murray is lofty, especially since the Arizona team total is well below their seasonal average, but it is still hard to objectively find a way to push him out of the QB1 ranks.
Running Back
Ezekiel Elliott: Elliott also got to coast through the second half Sunday night after finding the end zone twice in the first half of the game. Elliott only ended with 42 yards due to the abbreviated snaps for the first-team offense. He still has not cleared 76 yards in a game since Week 6, but he has subjectively looked better these past two weeks over the midseason stretch where he was fighting through multiple ailments.
That said, Elliott’s main appeal right now is scoring equity. Elliott is still a touchdown-dependent RB2 right now. Elliott has 12 touchdowns on the year and is seventh in the NFL in opportunities inside of the five-yard line (13). Arizona can be run on, allowing 4.45 yards per carry to backs (23rd), but they have also allowed the fewest touchdowns in the league to opposing backfields (six).
Cardinals RBs: Chase Edmonds flourished on Christmas with James Conner sidelined. He led all running backs in Week 16 in snap share (92%), handling 24 touches for 127 yards and a touchdown. Edmonds now has three career games in which he has played at least 70% of the team snaps, and in those games has racked up 29, 28, and 24 touches.
We have seen the Arizona backfield is a goldmine for fantasy points when one of these backs has things to themselves. Conner and Edmonds have combined for six RB1 scoring weeks, with just one of them (Conner in Week 4) coming with both backs active. With both backs on the field, Edmonds has handled 49.1% of the backfield touches and Conner 46.9%. If Conner cannot suit up again, Edmonds will once again be in the RB1 discussion, but with both backs playing, they are both RB2 options with Edmonds a floor-based play and Conner a touchdown-dependent play.
Dallas is sixth in rushing points allowed per game (11.3) and eighth in receiving points allowed per game (8.8) while facing 23.9 backfield touches per game, sixth-fewest in the league.
Tony Pollard: Pollard has been an RB2 or better in each of his past five of his past six games played, but he still has had more than 10 touches in just three of his past eight games. The thing that keeps Pollard in FLEX territory and a floor play is the lack of money touches as he has just two offensive touchdowns on the season.
Wide Receiver
CeeDee Lamb (TRUST): Lamb has been a WR2 or better in just one of his five games played and has not reached the end zone since Week 10. Lamb has still had the best floor of the Dallas wideouts, posting double-digit PPR points in each of his past four games and in nine of the past 11 games. The Cardinals have been far more vulnerable to slot receivers this season, once again providing a matchup edge for Lamb among the Dallas wideouts. Arizona is 31st in the league in points allowed per game to opposing slot receivers (14.9 points) while allowing a league-high 15 touchdowns to slot wideouts.
Amari Cooper: Cooper delivered in Week 16, catching 7-of-11 targets for 85 yards and a touchdown. After a 12.2% target share over the previous five games, Cooper received 26.8% of the team targets on Sunday night, just his third game this season seeing 20% or more of the team targets. Cooper now has three top-10 scoring weeks on the season, and nine weeks as a WR3 or lower. Arizona is eighth in the league in points allowed to boundary wideouts compared to being torched through the slot, leaving Cooper as a boom-or-bust WR2.
Michael Gallup: Catching 2-of-5 targets for 53 yards on Sunday, Gallup has now posted two games inside of the top-40 over his eight games played. The first came with both Cooper and Lamb inactive on Thanksgiving and the second came with Cooper playing just 24 snaps (34%) in Week 13. The silver lining is that Gallup is still playing a lot. He has run a route on 87.5% of the team dropbacks since returning, so any given week he could hit if the targets find him. We want attachment to this offense when all things are clicking, but Gallup is an all-or-nothing WR4/FLEX.
Christian Kirk: Kirk has been the Arizona wideout we have come to find the most stability, seeing 23.1%, 27.6%, 11.4%, 25.0%, and 23.1% of the team targets in the games without Hopkins on the field. Kirk has only been a WR2 or better in two of those games since he has found the end zone just once since Week 7 and has not hit 100-yards in a game since Week 3. Dallas is fourth in the league in points allowed per game to opposing WR1 and second in points allowed per game to opposing slot receivers (where Kirk runs 79% of his routes), putting Kirk on the WR2/WR3 line with more appeal in full-PPR formats.
Cardinals WRs: The Arizona wideouts other than Kirk have turned in scattershot performances with or without Hopkins in the lineup.
A.J. Green has five catches the past two weeks and now has one or fewer catches in three of his past six games played.
Antoine Wesley has run a route on 75.1% of the team dropbacks in the games Hopkins has missed but also has had more than four targets in just one of those games.
Rondale Moore has just three weeks inside of the top-48 scorers on the season with just one over his past nine games played.
All of the ancillary Arizona wideouts are only options for deep-league swings. Dallas is allowing a league-low 55.4% catch rate to opposing wide receivers and a 4.1% touchdown rate (10th), but they have given up some big plays when targets do connect, allowing 14.5 yards per catch (31st) to the position.
Tight End
Zach Ertz: Ertz has been the Arizona pass catcher to play outside of Kirk for weekly consistency. In the five games that Ertz has played without Hopkins, he has seen 19.2%, 20.7%, 20.5%, 22.9%, and 33.3% of the team targets.
The past two weeks Ertz has seen 11 and 13 targets in favorable matchups against teams that have struggled versus tight ends all year. Dallas is not as pronounced as the Lions and Colts, but they are in a similar bucket as they rank 25th in yards allowed per target (8.1 yards) to tight ends but are 11th in touchdown rate (4.8%) allowed to the position. Ertz is a TE1 in all formats moving forward but gets a boost in full-PPR formats.
Dalton Schultz: Schultz has gotten reinvolved in the offense the past two weeks, posting lines of 8-67-1 (eight targets) and 8-82-1 (nine targets). That is a reminder that a full-time tight end attached to a good offense should always be in consideration as a TE1 despite the volatility of the position. Schultz will look to stay hot against a stingy Arizona defense, however. The Cardinals have allowed a 64.1% catch rate (seventh), 2.6% touchdown rate (third), and 6.7 yards per target (11th) to opposing tight ends.
More Week 17 Fantasy breakdowns from The Worksheet:
NYG at CHI | ATL at BUF | KC at CIN | MIA at TEN | LVR at IND | JAX at NE | TB at NYJ | PHI at WAS | LAR at BAL | DEN at LAC | HOU at SF | ARI at DAL | CAR at NO | DET at SEA | MIN at GB | CLE at PIT