Cardinals vs Seahawks Fantasy Football Worksheet, Week 11

The Worksheet, a fantasy football overview by Rich Hribar, breaking down everything you need to know for the Week 11 Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks Sunday afternoon game.

Arizona	Rank	@	Seattle	Rank
-2.5		Spread	2.5
26		Implied Total	23.5
28.7	4	Points/Gm	20.1	22
18.9	5	Points All./Gm	20.7	9
64	12	Plays/Gm	55.7	32
61.5	9	Opp. Plays/Gm	72.1	32
5.9	11	Off. Yards/Play	5.4	19
5.3	5	Def. Yards/Play	5.6	16
47.50%	5	Rush%	42.32%	14
52.50%	28	Pass%	57.68%	19
39.84%	12	Opp. Rush %	42.22%	21
60.16%	21	Opp. Pass %	57.78%	12

The Cardinals are a league-best 5-0 against the spread on the road this season.
The Seahawks are averaging a league-low 3.2 yards per passing play on third downs.
Russell Wilson has completed 40.6% (13-of-32) of his third down passes, the lowest rate of any passer with 20 or more third down pass attempts on the season.
The Seahawks have gone for a league-low five fourth down plays and have also converted a league-low 20.0%.
Seattle is second in the league in red zone conversion rate (71.4%), but 30th in the league in red zone attempts (21).

Quarterback

Russell Wilson: Whether he came back too early, was just flat out rusty, the Packers defense is on a heater, or a combination of all of the above, Wilson’s return to the lineup saw him complete just 50% of his passes for 4.0 yards per pass attempt with two interceptions and zero touchdown passes as Seattle was shut out for the first time in his career with Wilson under center.

Prior to injury, Wilson was leading the league in passing points per attempt (0.69), so it is reasonable to give him a hall pass on the performance, but it still does not make it any easier to have complete faith in him being right this weekend against an equally stingy pass defense in Arizona.

The Cardinals defense is fourth in passing DVOA, third in expected points added, and fifth in passing points allowed per attempt (0.39). They have allowed just two QB1 scoring weeks on the season and just one passer to throw more than two touchdown passes against them this season. Wilson is a volatile option that is tough to stream given his weekly upside when right, but with a high-scoring week of QB8 on the season, he is a fringe-QB1 play.

Cardinals QB: Kyler Murray logged some practice time last week and has practiced this week, but with the Cardinals having an upcoming bye next week to potentially rest Murray another week, it appears that Colt McCoy is expected to get his third straight start this Sunday and then have Murray come back 100% in Week 13.

After a QB13 (16.3 points) week in Week 9, McCoy came back down against an aggressive Carlina defense with just 0.2 fantasy points last week before exiting the game banged up himself.

Seattle has been trending upwards against the pass, now up to ninth in passing points allowed per attempt (0.40), 14th in yards allowed per attempt (7.2 Y/A), and 11th in yards allowed per completion (11.1 yards), but they are still allowing 15.9 passing points per game (19th) since they are facing 40.0 pass attempts per game, tied for the most in the league. McCoy is only an option for those filling a spot in 2QB formats.

Running Back

James Conner: With the Cardinals offense flatlining last week, Conner was caught in the wake, totaling 64 yards on 13 touches. He still was able to salvage his day with an 11-yard touchdown run, his league-leading 12th touchdown on the season.

We finally got a glimpse of the floor potential for this offense without Murray after their solid Week 9 performance, but Conner has handled 72.2% and 68.4% of the backfield touches the past two weeks as the feature back to at worst make him a volume based RB2 from a floor perspective while we have already seen the RB1 upside.

Seattle has also struggled against opposing backs, allowing 180.4 total yards per game to backfields, which is 31st in the league. They are facing a league-high 33.4 touches per game to opposing backs while ranking 21st in points allowed per touch (0.92) to backs. If Murray is back, thrust Conner all the way up to trustworthy RB1 status. He is still a fringe RB1 regardless of if Murray is available or not, just with added volatility should Murray not suit up.

Seahawks RBs: Pete Carroll said they will continue to monitor Chris Carson this week after he missed his fifth straight game with a neck injury.

In his absence, the Seattle backfield was once again led by Alex Collins, but he managed just 11 touches for 49 yards. The positive spin is that Collins handled 73.3% of the backfield touches, his highest rate in a game this season.

Arizona is a run defense we want to target weekly while teams are in neutral game script. They are allowing 4.7 yards per carry to backs (28th) and have allowed a league-high 17.5% of the carries against them to gain 10 or more yards. Arizona is also allowing 12.1 receiving points per game (22nd) to backfields. If Carson remains sidelined, Collins is a back-end RB2 who will get a larger boost if Murray sits out again while both Seattle backs would be matchup-based FLEX options should Carson return to the lineup as we should anticipate some sort of timeshare with Carson missing so much time.

Wide Receiver

D.K. Metcalf: Metcalf was able to secure just 3-of-8 targets for 26 yards in Wilson’s return to the lineup as nobody survived the destruction. That was Metcalf’s lowest yardage total on the year, but he did see 21.1% of the targets, giving him more than 20% of the targets in every game but one on the season. Even with the down game, only Cooper Kupp (10) and Mike Evans (nine) have more receiving touchdowns at this stage of the season than Metcalf’s eight.

Metcalf will look to pick up the pieces against an Arizona defense that is third in yards per target (6.9 yards) and seventh in completion rate (58.7%) allowed to opposing wideouts but have allowed a 6.5% touchdown rate to the position, which is 29th in the league.

Tyler Lockett: Lockett matched Metcalf’s eight targets, yielding similar results as he caught two passes for 23 yards. Lockett has lived as a boom-or-bust WR2, posting games of 100, 178, and 142 yards in three contests with 182 yards combined over his other six games played. With just two games with a touchdown grab, Lockett’s weekly floor is lower than Metcalf’s, which is why he has been a much more volatile despite seeing similar target opportunities.

Cardinals WRs: DeAndre Hopkins sat out a second straight game last week and did not practice at all during the week. With the Cardinals’ upcoming bye week, they may rest him to ensure he is 100% for the stretch run, but we will keep tabs on his availability throughout the week.

With Hopkins out, Christian Kirk led the team with eight targets (27.6%) last week, catching seven passes for 58 yards. Kirk has now been a top-30 scorer in four of his past five games. With Hopkins out, Kirk has run a pass route on 96.7% and 91.4% of the dropbacks the past two games, his two highest rates on the season. If Hopkins is out again, Kirk is a WR3 regardless of the quarterback situation, but with more upside obviously playing with Murray.

A.J. Green ran a pass route on just 77.1% of the dropbacks coming back from COVID, his lowest rate on the season. He had run a route on 88.9% of the dropbacks in his games prior. As a result of the reduction in routes and the poor quarterback play, Green grabbed just 1-of-5 targets for four yards. Green’s highest target share of the season was in Week 8 after Hopkins went down, so I would expect him to bounce back in usage should Hopkins remain out as a WR4/FLEX option.

After running a season-high 86.7% of the routes in Week 9, Rondale Moore ran a route on just 34.3% of the dropbacks last week. He was returning from a concussion, but Moore has now been the WR48 or lower in eight of his 10 games this season while having 28 or fewer receiving yards in seven of his past eight games played. He is barely worth a roster spot in leagues outside of the deepest of formats.

Seattle is facing 22.6 targets per game (third-most) to opposing wideouts, but they are 14th in points allowed to the position per game since they rank sixth in completion rate (58.6%), and fifth in yards allowed per target (7.2 yards) to the position to go along with a 3.5% touchdown rate (fifth).

Tight End

Zach Ertz: Ertz is coming off his highest target share (20.7%) since joining the Cardinals, catching 4-of-6 targets for 46 yards. With all the injuries and absences over the past two weeks, Ertz has run a pass route on 86.7% and 82.9% of the team dropbacks in those games, his highest rates on the season. Ertz has not had more than six targets in a game since joining the Cardinals and has been held to single-digit points in each of his past three games. If Murray returns and Hopkins remains out, then Ertz’s recent usage becomes more appealing as a fringe-TE1, but he is a TE2 option without Murray.

Seattle is 25th in receptions allowed per game (5.6) to tight ends on the strength of allowing a 76.9% catch rate on those targets (29th), but they do rank 11th in yards allowed per target (6.8 yards) to the position.

Gerald Everett: The only Seattle pass catcher that came out looking good last week was Everett, who received a season-high eight targets, catching all of them for 63 yards. Everett had just 14 catches on the season coming into Sunday, but he ran a route on a season-high 79.2% of the dropbacks. Hopefully, this is something to build off and not a one-off. Arizona has allowed just one TE1 on the season, but they have also only faced two TE1 options on the season in George Kittle (6-101-1) and Tyler Higbee (4-36-0).