As part of the Sharp Football Draft Kit, Raymond Summerlin is posting a fantasy football preview for all 32 NFL teams.
This preview includes advanced stats, the fantasy football outlook for Justin Herbert, Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, Quentin Johnston, Austin Ekeler, and every other notable Charger, and in-depth analysis of the coaching staff, passing game, and rushing attack.
Find a link to every team preview in our Draft Kit Hub.
Highlights:
- On throws that travel at least 15 yards, Justin Herbert has averaged 0.62 expected points added per play with a 47.7% success rate, 13 yards per attempt, and an 8.6% touchdown rate in his career. Those numbers would have ranked 4th, 12th, 9th, and 9th among qualifying quarterbacks last season.
- Healthy from Week 11 on, Keenan Allen caught 60 passes for 675 yards and four touchdowns in eight games. He was the WR7 in per-game scoring over that span despite going well under his expected touchdown total.
- Austin Ekeler followed up his 20-touchdown performance in 2021 with an 18-score campaign last season. Over the last two years, Ekeler has scored 12 more scrimmage touchdowns than the next closest player.
2022 Chargers Stats (NFL Rank):
- Points: 391 (13th)
- Total Offense: 6,108 (8th)
- Plays: 1,154 (2nd)
- Offensive TDs: 41 (11th)
- Points Per Drive: 2.01 (13th)
- EPA+ Per Play: 0.7 (16th)
- Situation Neutral Pace: 29.34 (4th)
2023 Chargers Coaching Staff:
- Head Coach: Brandon Staley
- Offensive Coordinator: Kellen Moore
The Chargers offense was not dreadful last year, but it never appeared to run on all cylinders.
A slew of receiver injuries almost certainly played a role in those issues, but the fact is you cannot have a bang-average offense with Justin Herbert at quarterback, even when he is dealing with injuries and especially when it appears you are limiting his playmaking ability down the field.
As expected, former OC Joe Lombardi took the fall for that offense shortly after the season.
Replacing him will be Kellen Moore, who the Chargers pounced on after the Cowboys let him go in late January.
Moore’s four years of coordinating experience came under The Clapper™ and Mike McCarthy in Dallas’ top-down organization, so it is tough to know what parts of his philosophy shined through.
For instance, Dallas had the seventh-highest early down run rate last year despite being no better than average at running on those downs.
You could say that was McCarthy pulling Moore back – the Cowboys were more midpack under Moore before last year – especially since McCarthy said this offseason, “I just want to run the damn ball.”
Of course, Moore talked about running the damn ball at his introductory press conference with the Chargers or more accurately marrying the running game to the passing game, something coach Brandon Staley has also brought up this offseason.
That suggests we will see a more even run-pass distribution moving forward – the Chargers had the fourth-highest early down pass rate last year – but Moore’s and Staley’s rhetoric is not as strong as the “run the damn ball” philosophy of his former boss.
More importantly, it appears Moore plans to correct Lombardi’s wrongs by setting up Herbert to pass down the field.
He both brought up the Air Coryell system and talked about play action setting up downfield throws.
That would be a welcome sight after Herbert finished tied for second last among qualifying quarterbacks in air yards per throw last year (6.4).
Assuming they don’t go crazy with the running game on early downs, allowing Herbert to throw downfield should by itself improve the offense and be a fantasy positive for the entire passing game, especially Mike Williams.
2022 Chargers Passing Stats:
- Dropbacks: 771 (2nd)
- Neutral Pass Rate: 60.9% (4th)
- Pass Rate Over Expected: 4.3% (4th)
- Pressure Rate Allowed: 21.0% (19th)
- ESPN Pass Block Win Rate: 57% (21st)
2023 Chargers Passing Game Preview:
The Chargers will face the 16th-easiest passing schedule based on 2022 efficiency numbers.
- QB: Justin Herbert, Easton Stick
- WR: Keenan Allen, Derius Davis
- WR: Quentin Johnston, Josh Palmer
- WR: Mike Williams, Jalen Guyton
- TE: Gerald Everett, Donald Parham
As detailed above, Justin Herbert had a comically low average depth of target in 2022.
His 6.42 air yards per attempt ranked below names like Jimmy Garoppolo and Baker Mayfield. Matt Ryan was the only qualifying quarterback with a lower aDOT.
It is worth noting Joe Burrow and Patrick Mahomes also found themselves near the bottom of the air yards per attempt rankings, and as Rich Hribar noted in his look at the 2022 NFL quarterback landscape, the league in general threw down the field less last season.
The changing defensive meta does encourage more throws near the line of scrimmage, but Kellen Moore is almost certain to get Herbert pushing the ball more this year.
Dak Prescott averaged 8.4 air yards per throw under Moore including a 9.3 mark in the only season the pair had together in Dallas before Mike McCarthy showed up.
Herbert has also excelled at throwing the ball down the field.
On throws that travel at least 15 yards, Herbert has averaged 0.62 expected points added per play with a 47.7% success rate, 13 yards per attempt, and an 8.6% touchdown rate in his career.
Those numbers would have ranked 4th, 12th, 9th, and 9th among qualifying quarterbacks last season.
There is no reason for Herbert to have the second lower average depth of throw in the league.
Moore should get that moving in the correct direction, and better health luck will get Herbert more help along the offensive line and at receiver.
He also set career lows in several important stats for fantasy including touchdown rate, rushing attempts per game, and rushing yards per game.
Herbert has a lot of bounceback factors going in his favor following his QB15 per-game finish from a year ago.
Keenan Allen was limited to 10 games last season, and he played just a third of the snaps in two other games.
Healthy from Week 11 on, though, he caught 60 passes for 675 yards and four touchdowns in eight games.
He was the WR7 in per-game scoring over that span despite going well under his expected touchdown total.
Allen is heading into his age-31 season, but he did not show signs of decline when healthy last year. He was targeted on 25.3% of his routes and posted a 2.14 yards per route run, both right at his career averages.
The Chargers pushing the ball downfield more would be better for someone like Mike Williams than Allen, who has a career aDOT of 8.7, but Allen is a target earner attached to one of the best quarterbacks in the league.
As for Williams, he played in just 13 games last season, catching 63 passes for 895 yards and four touchdowns.
He finished as the WR23 in per-game scoring, but Williams was mostly boom or bust. He had six weekly finishes inside the top 16, but he was the WR34 or worse in his other seven games.
For his career, he has 29 weekly finishes inside the top 30 and 31 outside the top 60.
The likely shift to deeper passing should be good for Williams, but there is a long enough track record of him being a volatile fantasy option to suggest that is just who he is.
Both Allen and Williams missed time last season, and it is possible they are both entering their final year with the team given their 2024 cap hits.
*Preseason Update: Quentin Johnston was played extensively during the preseason while the rest of the starting offense was rested. That simply could be because he is a rookie, but it at least raises some concern about his position on the depth chart heading into Week 1.
The Chargers addressed both concerns by drafting Quentin Johnston with the 21st overall pick. He has an interesting profile.
A big receiver in a class that had few, the 6-foot-2, 208-pound Johnston averaged 8.9 yards after the catch with 49.9% of his yardage coming from YAC.
He caught just 8-of-23 contested targets last season, however, converted 2-of-18 career red zone targets for touchdowns, and had an 11.8% drop rate.
He has the profile of a receiver that did not play up to his size in college.
Johnston also had the Williams volatility problem in college, going for 50 or fewer yards in half of his career games.
Johnston’s ability to create yards on his own gives him a high ceiling, but his range of career outcomes is wide.
For this season, Johnston could open the year in three-wide sets if he can beat out Josh Palmer, but it will be difficult for him to earn a fantasy-viable target share as long as Williams and Allen are healthy.
Given the receiver injuries around him, Palmer got a shot to prove he can be a major factor in a passing game. It did not go great.
Palmer turned his 107 targets into 72 catches for 769 yards and three touchdowns. He earned 1.25 yards per route run and was targeted on 17.4% of his routes. Those numbers ranked 61st and 58th among qualifying receivers.
The Chargers bringing in a first-round receiver is not a great sign for Palmer, but he may hold off the rookie for the No. 3 job.
Gerald Everett was another beneficiary of the injuries at receiver, finishing with 58 catches for 555 yards and four touchdowns.
With Allen mostly inactive through the first 10 weeks, Everett was targeted on 21.4% of his routes, had a 14.7% target share, and averaged 40 yards per game.
From Week 11 on, Everett was targeted on 17.2% of his routes, had a 10.3% target share, and averaged 27 yards per game.
At no point was Everett efficient, averaging 1.25 yards per route run (20th among 29 qualifying TEs) and 6.4 yards per target (21st).
Kellen Moore did use Dalton Schultz a lot in Dallas, but Everett has not flashed any kind of real fantasy upside throughout his six seasons in the league.
The Chargers also made additions at receiver that will likely prevent a bigger role for the tight end even if Allen or Williams goes down.
There are better upside TE2 bets to make.
2022 Chargers Rushing Stats:
- Rushing Attempts – Scrambles: 381 (27th)
- Yards Before Contact Per Attempt: 2.2 (30th)
- Football Outsiders’ Adjusted Line Yards: 4.23 (26th)
- ESPN’s Run Block Win Rate: 70% (26th)
2023 Chargers Running Game Preview:
The Chargers will face the 12th-toughest rushing schedule based on 2022 efficiency numbers.
- RB: Austin Ekeler, Joshua Kelley, Isaiah Spiller
- OL: Rashawn Slater, Zion Johnson, Corey Linsley, Jamaree Salyer, Trey Pipkins
Austin Ekeler followed up his 20-touchdown performance in 2021 with an 18-score campaign last season.
Over the last two years, Ekeler has scored 12 more scrimmage touchdowns than the next closest player.
While he has gotten some touchdown luck over that run, his expected touchdown total is still better than No. 2 ranked James Conner’s actual touchdown total.
Ekeler has added 177 catches and 3,195 yards from scrimmage for good measure over the last two seasons. He is the RB2 in points per game over that span, but he has played nine more games than Derrick Henry in first place.
Ekeler did not get the long-term contract he wanted this offseason, but the Chargers also did not add anyone of note to alleviate his workload, seemingly relying on Joshua Kelley or Isaiah Spiller taking a step forward.
Ekeler's target share should take a step back after jumping to 18.5% with all the receiver injuries last year, but that actually could help his efficiency.
He averaged -0.8 air yards per target last season and 5.7 yards per target. The latter was easily a career low.
A workhorse with few viable candidates to steal his touches, Ekeler is a Tier 1 fantasy running back worthy of a first-round pick.
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