Chargers vs Raiders Fantasy Football Worksheet, Week 10

• The Chargers (9.4) and Raiders (9.6) rank last and second-to-last in possessions per game.
• Oaklands ranks 30th in points per drive allowed (2.60) while the Chargers rank 12th (1.85).
• Opponents have scored a touchdown on 34.6% of their drives against the Raiders, the second-highest rate in the league behind Atlanta (35.9%).
• The Chargers are fourth in the league in passing yardage differential per game (72.7 yards) than their opponents while the Raiders are 28th (-52.3 yards).
• The Raiders are the only team in the league to average at least 5.0 yards per offensive play in every game this season. 
• Oakland is second in the league in third-down conversion rate (49.5%) and average the fewest yards to gain (6.1) per third down in the league.
• Derek Carr is averaging 9.8 yards per pass attempt on third downs this season, trailing only Patrick Mahomes (10.5 Y/A) and 52.0% of his attempts have resulted in a first down, trailing only Jimmy Garoppolo (55.4%).
• Josh Jacobs has forced a missed tackle on 26.3% of his rushing attempts, the highest rate for all running backs with 100 or more carries on the season. 

Trust (spike production for that player)

• Philip Rivers: Rivers is seventh in passing yardage per game (289.9), but is 29th in touchdown rate (3.6%). Based on his yardage totals, he should have 3.7 more passing touchdowns this season, which is the fifth-largest discrepancy of any quarterback in the league. That touchdown variance could see a spike this week as the Raiders are 31st in touchdown rate allowed to opposing passers at 7.8%. Oakland also puts next to no heat on opposing passers, ranking 32nd in the league in pressure rate (12.9%).
• Keenan Allen: After a hot start to the season, Allen has been a disappointing fantasy commodity, averaging just 4.2 catches for 42.2 yards on 7.0 targets per game over the past six weeks. That negative trend won’t find a better slump-buster than facing a Raiders secondary that is 31st in yardage allowed per game (198.6) to opposing wideouts. 
• Hunter Henry: Since returning to the lineup in Week 6, Henry leads all tight ends in targets (33), receptions (25), yards (328), air yards (351), and fantasy points (69.8). Oakland is 30th in points per game allowed (15.8) to opposing tight ends.

On the Cusp (proxy of a player’s average)

• Josh Jacobs: Jacobs is fourth in the league with 92.5 rushing yards per game and has reached 120 yards rushing in three of his past four games. The Chargers righted the ship for at least a week against the Packers backfield in Week 9 (17 touches for 78 yards), but still rank 24th in yards from scrimmage allowed per game (143.7) to opposing backs.
• Darren Waller: Waller has managed four receptions over the past two weeks for 63 yards. His two targets last week were his fewest in a game this season after having eight or more targets in six of his previous seven games played. The Chargers have allowed just 3.3 receptions per game to opposing tight ends (sixth), but have faced just one top-12 scorer on the season in Daniel Fells (5-49-1). 
• Mike Williams: Williams finally got over the hump last week with his first career 100-yard receiving game, but he did so on just four targets. That gives Williams just 16 targets over the past three weeks with a game-high of six over that span. Nobody gives up more big plays in the passing game than the Raiders. Oakland is allowing 5.4 completions of 20 or more yards per game, the most in the league. Oakland is an all-hands on deck passing defense, but Williams’s recent volume decline keeps him as a WR2 option. 

Bust (down-week production for that player’s standards)

• Derek Carr: Carr has thrown for 289, 285, and 293 yards over the past three weeks with multiple touchdowns in each of those weeks. Those matchups came against three struggling fantasy secondaries, but the Chargers have allowed just one top-12 scoring week this season and just nuked a hot Aaron Rodgers. Carr has been the QB20 or lower in five consecutive starts against the Chargers. Carr has also been a QB1 in just one of his five starts on Thursday night.
• Tyrell Williams: Touchdown regression finally found Williams, but unfortunately the targets haven’t spiked for him. Williams now has three receptions in four straight games and has yet to receive more than seven targets in a game this season. Williams runs 82% of his routes on the perimeter, where he’ll be shadowed by Casey Hayward.
• Hunter Renfrow: Renfrow has grabbed 10-of-11 targets for 143 yards and two touchdowns the past two weeks after posting 30 or fewer yards in each of his first six games. Renfrow runs 75% of his routes from the slot, where the Chargers rank eighth in points allowed to wideouts. 

If You Must (intriguing bench option or deeper league play) 

• Melvin Gordon: Gordon is coming off his best game since returning from holdout, turning 23 touches into 109 total yards and two touchdowns. He forced five missed tackles on his 23 touches after forcing just five missed tackles over his 55 touches prior. Is he back? Or was last week a perfect intersection of game script and matchup? The offensive plays being called by Shane Steichen after the firing of Ken Whisenhunt? This week, we'll get further clarity. Gordon is trading the league’s worst run defense for an Oakland front that ranks 10th in yards per carry allowed (3.9) to backfields and eighth in rushing points allowed per game (10.3). 
• Austin Ekeler: Ekeler handled 16 touches last week, but has had 23 or fewer receiving yards in three of his past four games. As mentioned, Oakland has been stout against the run so far, but they do rank 29th in receiving points allowed to opposing backfields per game (14.1).