The Worksheet, a fantasy football overview by Rich Hribar, breaking down everything you need to know for the Week 11 Kansas City Chiefs vs Los Angeles Chargers Monday Night Football game in Mexico City on November 18, 2019 at 8:15 pm ET.
| Kansas City | Rank | @ | LA Chargers | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -3.5 | Spread | 3.5 | ||
| 28 | Implied Total | 24.5 | ||
| 28.4 | 5 | Points/Gm | 20.7 | 21 |
| 23.9 | 19 | Points All./Gm | 19.4 | 8 |
| 61.4 | 21 | Plays/Gm | 61.4 | 22 |
| 66.1 | 24 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 57.5 | 3 |
| 34.7% | 29 | Rush% | 37.1% | 26 |
| 65.3% | 4 | Pass% | 62.9% | 7 |
| 43.6% | 24 | Opp. Rush % | 46.1% | 28 |
| 56.4% | 9 | Opp. Pass % | 53.9% | 5 |
- Since 2015, the Chiefs are a league-best 23-2 against divisional opponents.
- Under Andy Reid, the Chiefs are 9-3 against the Chargers and 8-4 against the spread.
- Running backs have scored 42.6% of the fantasy points scored against the Chiefs, the highest rate in the league.
- Running backs have scored 41.2% of the fantasy points scored against the Chargers, the third-highest rate in the league.
- Opposing wide receivers have scored 37.8% of the fantasy points allowed by the Chiefs, the lowest rate in the league.
- The Chiefs are allowing 4.0 red zone possessions per game, the most in the league.
- The Chiefs lead the league in touchdowns scored from outside of the red zone this season (16).
- Patrick Mahomes averages 36.0 passing yards per possession, the most in the league. League average is 22.7 passing yards per drive.
- Kansas City games have averaged a combined 57.4 points in the seven full games that Mahomes has played, with five of those games reaching 55 or more points.
- These two teams combined to score 66 and 57 points last season, combining to score 15 touchdowns in those games.
Trust (spike production for that player)
- Patrick Mahomes: Mahomes came back in a big way last week, throwing for a season-high 446 yards on his way to a QB3 (29.8) scoring week. In two meetings with the Chargers last season, Mahomes was the QB4 (28.3 points) and QB8 (18.0).
- Tyreek Hill: Since returning to the lineup in Week 6, Hill has averaged 23.0 points per game and has been the highest-scoring wideout overall over that span. In his lone two full games played with Mahomes, he’s now been the WR4 (5-80-2) and the WR3 (11-157-1). Hill has caught a touchdown in four of his six career games against the Chargers.
- Damien Williams: Williams has been the RB8 and the RB15 the past two games with 128 and 109 yards from scrimmage in those games. He’s handled 38-of-48 backfield touches those weeks and with LeSean McCoy a healthy scratch last week, Williams had 24-of-29 touches despite losing a fumble. It’s doubtful we’ve seen the last of McCoy this season, but this is a matchup to target the starting back of a high-powered offense. The Chargers are allowing 146.8 yards from scrimmage to opposing backfields, 26th in the league.
- Melvin Gordon: What a turn of the tides for Gordon and this running game. After four consecutive weeks of failing to reach 40 yards rushing as a team, the Chargers have rushed for 159 and 146 yards the past two weeks. Gordon has posted 109 and 133 yards in those games and has been the RB3 and RB6 those weeks. Gordon has gotten back to form himself, forcing 10 missed tackles on carries over the past two weeks, third in the league. The Chiefs have allowed a league-high 181.6 yards from scrimmage to opposing backs and have allowed five 100-yard rushers this season, tied with Miami for the most in the league.
- Hunter Henry: Henry leads all tight ends in scoring since returning to the lineup in Week 6, pacing the position in targets (40), receptions (29), and yardage (358) with three touchdowns. Opposing teams have targeted their tight ends 29.4% of the time against the Chiefs while 30.4% of the receptions against the Chiefs have been by tight ends. Both of those rates are the highest in the league.
- Philip Rivers: Rivers was arguably the most disappointing fantasy quarterback last week based on his own play and then the Chargers’ offensive line breaking down against an Oakland pass rush that was non-existence prior to Week 10. Rivers was sacked five times last week after being sacked just six times over his previous six games. Despite the letdown, there’s reason to go back to the well here with high-scoring game potential. The Chiefs have allowed a top-10 quarterback in six of their past eight games with the exceptions being Joe Flacco and Jacoby Brissett. In his two matchups with Mahomes and the Chiefs last year, Rivers was the QB3 (28.9 points) and the QB7 (18.5 points).
On the Cusp (proxy of a player’s average)
- Travis Kelce: Kelce has been a top-12 tight end in each of the past nine games. He’s started to make good on his expected touchdown regression as he’s scored in two of the past three games. For whatever reason, the Chargers have regularly had Kelce’s number. In 10 career games facing the Chargers, Kelce has never caught a touchdown pass and has averaged 37.7 yards receiving. Even with Mahomes under center last year, Kelce had games of 1-6-0 and 7-61-0 against the Chargers.
- Sammy Watkins: With the Chiefs pass-catching corps now fully intact, Watkins has had 19 targets — which trails only Hill (28) — but has been used in a possession role. Watkins has just a 7.5-yard average depth of target since returning to the lineup and is behind Kelce (137) in air yards (102).
- Austin Ekeler: Ekeler’s usage has fallen since Gordon returned to the lineup, but he has still been a top-30 scorer in five of six games sharing the backfield. The concern with Ekeler is that he’s living off touchdowns a bit, catching a touchdown pass in three of the past four weeks despite catching just eight passes in those games. The Chiefs are an equal opportunity target for backs, ranking 29th in rushing points allowed per game (17.3) and 29th in receiving points allowed per game (14.1) to backfields.
- Keenan Allen: Allen has 28.3% of the team targets over the past four games, but the results are still lagging for fantasy. He hasn’t reached 70 yards receiving in a game since Week 3. The Chiefs haven’t allowed a 100-yard receiver since Week 1 and just one receiver has reached 80 yards against them over their past nine games since.
If You Must (intriguing bench option or deeper league play)
- Mike Williams: Everyone is in play here with the highest game total of the week and Mahomes’s return lifting all tides for potential shootouts. We’ve been chasing his first touchdown of the season, but Williams has had his usage severely tail off of late. He’s had just 19 targets (15.1%) over his past four games with no more than six targets in any of those games.
- Chiefs WRs: With Mahomes back, Demarcus Robinson reappeared with a WR39 (4-56) week. Robinson ran 38 pass routes last week, third behind Watkins (39) and Hill (44). Mecole Hardman ran just 16 routes, but once again continued to make a splash play, catching a 63-yard touchdown. Hardman now has four touchdown receptions of 30 yards or longer, which is tied for the lead league with Kenny Golladay.
More Week 11 Fantasy breakdowns from The Worksheet:
PIT at CLE | HOU at BAL | NO at TB | ATL at CAR | DAL at DET | JAX at IND | BUF at MIA | NYJ at WAS | DEN at MIN | ARI at SF | CIN at OAK | NE at PHI | CHI at LAR | KAN at LAC