The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Week 9 matchup between the Chiefs and Dolphins in Germany.
Find a breakdown of every Week 9 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.
| Miami | Rank | @ | Kansas City | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | Spread | -2.5 | ||
| 24.0 | Implied Total | 26.5 | ||
| 33.9 | 1 | Points/Gm | 23.4 | 12 |
| 25.5 | 25 | Points All./Gm | 16.1 | 2 |
| 61.9 | 21 | Plays/Gm | 65.3 | 10 |
| 64.6 | 19 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 60.6 | 7 |
| 7.3 | 1 | Off. Yards/Play | 5.8 | 4 |
| 5.1 | 14 | Def. Yards/Play | 4.7 | 3 |
| 41.62% | 17 | Rush% | 38.70% | 28 |
| 58.38% | 16 | Pass% | 61.30% | 5 |
| 42.75% | 15 | Opp. Rush % | 41.44% | 12 |
| 57.25% | 18 | Opp. Pass % | 58.56% | 21 |
- The Dolphins are averaging a league-high 39.9 yards per possession.
- Kansas City is averaging 36.0 yards per drive, fourth in the league.
- Miami is averaging a league-high 16.6 plays per game that gain 10 or more yards.
- Kansas City is averaging 14.3 per game, third in the league.
- 23.8% of the Kansas City drives have not gained a first down or touchdown, the lowest rate in the league. The league average is 33.8%.
- 78.8% of the Miami set of downs result in a new set of downs or a touchdown, the highest rate in the league.
- Just 35.9% of the Miami set of downs have reached third down, the lowest rate in the league. The league average is 47.6%.
- The Dolphins have converted a league-high 39.1% of their third and long (needing seven or more yards) plays.
- The Chiefs have converted 38.6% of their third and long plays, second in the league.
- The Chiefs are averaging 1.36 points per drive in the second half this season, ahead of only the Giants and Cardinals.
- Kansas City has scored a touchdown on 12.8% (5-of-39) of their drives in the second half (30th) as opposed to 31.1% (14-of-45) of their drives in the first half (fourth).
- Miami is averaging a league-high 8.3 yards per passing play.
- The Chiefs are allowing 5.0 yards per passing play, second in the league.
Trust = spike production for that player
Quarterback
Tua Tagovailoa: Tua completed a season-high 30 passes on Sunday, matching a season-high 45 pass attempts. He turned those completions and attempts into 324 yards and three touchdowns.
Tua leads the NFL in passing yardage (2,416 yards) and is tied for the league lead with 18 touchdown passes.
Somehow despite that, Tua has not yet posted back-to-back weeks as a QB1 scorer for fantasy.
He will look to break that trend against a Kansas City defense that has allowed just one QB1 scoring week this season, which was to Kirk Cousins.
The Chiefs are coming off allowing three touchdown passes to Russell Wilson, but they only allowed 6.0 yards per pass attempt. Kansas City is allowing 12.1 passing points per game (11th).
They also have a solid resume, facing Cousins, Jared Goff, Justin Fields, Russell Wilson twice, and Justin Herbert.
That said, this will be their largest test of the season.
The only thing that has impacted Tua this season has been disruption.
Under pressure, Tagovailoa's completion rate is 37.4% below his completion rate when kept clean, a rate only ahead of Jimmy Garoppolo. He is averaging 3.7 fewer yards per attempt when pressured compared to a clean pocket, 29th in the league.
But teams have not gotten home often.
Tagovailoa has been pressured on just 21.3% of his dropbacks, the lowest rate in the league.
He has held the ball on average 2.24 seconds per throw, the quickest time in the league.
Just 3.8% of his throws have come after holding the ball over 4.0 seconds, the lowest rate in the league (the league average is 14.0%).
Despite his lack of consistent front-end weeks in succession and the Kansas City defense playing well in bulk, there is no way we are running away from Tua as a QB1 in a potential shootout.
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