As part of the Sharp Football Draft Kit, Raymond Summerlin is posting a fantasy football preview for all 32 NFL teams.
This preview includes advanced stats, the fantasy football outlook for Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, Kadarius Toney, Skyy Moore, Isiah Pacheco, and every other notable Chief, and in-depth analysis of the coaching staff, passing game, and rushing attack.
Find a link to every team preview in our Draft Kit Hub.
Highlights:
- Patrick Mahomes was easily first in EPA per dropback (0.27) and per pass attempt (0.31) and just beat out Josh Allen in success rate (51.6%) in 2022. For fantasy, the was the QB3 in points per game. He has been the QB6 or better in per-game scoring every season since taking over the starting job.
- Kadarius Toney’s rate stats looked amazing after he joined the Chiefs last season. He averaged 2.63 yards per route run and was targeted on 26.2% of his routes. Unfortunately, he only ran 65 total routes in seven games, was inactive for three weeks, and never played more than 44% of the offensive snaps in a single game.
- Isiah Pacheco emerged midway through his rookie season. From his first start in Week 7 on, he handled 139 carries for 681 yards and four touchdowns. Over that span, he was 12th among qualifying running backs in yards per carry (4.9), 14th in success rate (42.4%), and first in the percentage of his runs that resulted in zero or negative yards (8.2%).
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2022 Chiefs Stats (NFL Rank):
- Points: 496 (1st)
- Total Offense: 7,032 (1st)
- Plays: 1,094 (11th)
- Offensive TDs: 59 (1st)
- Points Per Drive: 2.71 (1st)
- EPA+ Per Play: 17.9 (1st)
- Situation Neutral Pace: 29.13 (3rd)
2023 Chiefs Coaching Staff:
- Head Coach: Andy Reid
- Offensive Coordinator: Matt Nagy
Once again unsuccessful in his bid for a head coaching job, Eric Bieniemy decided to bolt for a coordinator spot in Washington where he will get to call plays.
Kansas City will now turn to Matt Nagy as offensive coordinator. He, of course, was the Chiefs’ coordinator for one year before his failed stint as Bears coach.
None of this really matters. One of the best offensive coaches in NFL history, Andy Reid will continue to design the offense and call the plays, and Patrick Mahomes will continue to lead an outstanding attack.
The Chiefs finished first in points, offense, touchdowns, points per drive, and EPA per play last season.
As Warren Sharp pointed out in his preview book, now available for download, the passing game was:
- #1 vs man and #1 vs zone
- #1 vs 2-high and #1 vs non-2-high
- #1 vs the blitz and #1 vs no blitz
- #1 when throwing under 10 air yards and #1 when throwing over 10 air yards
- #2 when throwing in less than 3 seconds and #1 when throwing in more than 3 seconds
- #1 on early downs and #1 on third down
- #1 inside the pocket and #1 outside the pocket
- #1 with play action and #1 without play action
- #1 when clean and #2 when pressured
- #1 when targeting WRs and #1 when targeting everyone else
- #1 in the first half and #1 in the second half
There is nothing really to say. This is a juggernaut and will continue to be one as long as Mahomes is healthy.
2022 Chiefs Passing Stats:
- Dropbacks: 722 (5th)
- Neutral Pass Rate: 64.4% (2nd)
- Pass Rate Over Expected: 10.8% (1st)
- Pressure Rate Allowed: 19.4% (15th)
- ESPN Pass Block Win Rate: 75% (1st)
2023 Chiefs Passing Game Preview:
The Chiefs will face the 11th-toughest passing schedule based on 2022 efficiency numbers.
- QB: Patrick Mahomes, Blaine Gabbert
- WR: Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Justin Watson
- WR: Skyy Moore, Rashee Rice
- WR: Kadarius Toney, Richie James
- TE: Travis Kelce, Noah Gray
As it turns out, Patrick Mahomes is pretty good.
Despite a, to put it kindly, lackluster receiver corps, Mahomes and Travis Kelce marshaled one of the best passing attacks in the league.
Mahomes was easily first in EPA per dropback (0.27) and per pass attempt (0.31) and just beat out Josh Allen in success rate (51.6%).
For fantasy, the was the QB3 in points per game. He has been the QB6 or better in per-game scoring every season since taking over the starting job.
Mahomes topped 23 fantasy points in 10 of his 17 games and only scored fewer than 17 points one time last season.
He has continued to be a reliable fantasy producer despite having to play a different game the last two seasons.
After averaging 8.7 air yards per attempt through his first four seasons in the league, Mahomes has averaged 7.29 air yards per attempt the last two years.
His intermediate plus deep target rate has fallen from 32.8% in those first four seasons to 27.5% over the last two years.
Mahomes does not have the rushing upside of the other Tier 1 fantasy quarterbacks – his 3.52 rushing fantasy points per game ranked 12th last season – but he has proven to be the most reliable fantasy option at the position.
That is a title Travis Kelce also holds at tight end.
With Tyreek Hill gone, Kelce was the unquestioned focal point of the passing attack.
He finished with a 24.8% target share (1st among TEs with at least 100 targets), was targeted on 25.4% of his routes (4th), and posted 2.24 yards per route run (2nd).
Kelce was a top-five scorer in 11 of his 17 games and a top-12 scorer in 14 weeks.
Looking ahead, the receiver situation in Kansas City has not dramatically improved, and it might be worse with JuJu Smith-Schuster no longer on the roster.
Perhaps Kadarius Toney stays healthy, Skyy Moore takes a step forward, or Rashee Rice hits the grounds running, but as it stands, Kelce looks set to once again dominate targets in one of the best passing attacks in the league.
He will turn 34 in the season, which is a concern, and his air yards per target over the last two seasons have been below his career average.
That drop coincides with the Chiefs changing their offensive approach overall, however, and none of his other rate stats show any sign of a falloff.
Kelce was the biggest positional advantage of any fantasy player last season.
He scored FOUR more fantasy points per game than the TE2.
As Rich Hribar notes in his tight end tiers:
“Last season’s TE2 only produced 68.1% of the fantasy points that Kelce did.
That was the lowest rate of production for the TE2 compared to the top scorer over the past 30 years.”
While the rest of the group should catch up – T.J. Hockenson’s final point total was the second-fewest by a TE2 in the last 12 seasons – Kelce should continue to offer a massive weekly advantage at the position.
*Preseason Update: With Kadarius Toney sidelined, Skyy Moore has been the primary first-team receiver behind Marquez Valdes-Scantling and is a good bet to stay there into the regular season even if Toney is able to come back healthy.
As for those receivers, it is impossible to know who will emerge in 2023.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling remains a good bet to lead the team in routes, but that did not amount to much fantasy success in 2022.
Despite running 554 routes, the second-most on the team, MVS finished with a 13.2% target share and was targeted on just 14.6% of his routes. His 1.24 yards per route run was 69th out of 101 qualifying receivers.
21% of his targets were 20 yards or more down the field, but he did not have the spike weeks that usually come with that kind of usage. He did not finish inside the top-20 receivers in any week last season.
Perhaps he just got unlucky, but his numbers look roughly the same as they did in Green Bay with another elite quarterback in Aaron Rodgers.
He is not going to cost anything in fantasy drafts, but there are better bets to make in this receiver room.
The fantasy community’s favorite of those bets in early drafts is Kadarius Toney, who is being drafted inside the top 45 receivers.
Toney’s rate stats looked amazing after he joined the Chiefs last season. He averaged 2.63 yards per route run and was targeted on 26.2% of his routes.
Unfortunately, he only ran 65 total routes in seven games, was inactive for three weeks, and never played more than 44% of the offensive snaps in a single game.
Perhaps that usage will jump up in his second season with the team, but it is a big concern his usage did not increase later in the season. He only played 30 snaps total in three playoff games.
On the other hand, the Chiefs have said all the right things this offseason, and ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler said the team views him as a “No. 1 type receiver.”
If that is the case, Toney’s career per-route efficiency suggests he can be a high-end fantasy option, especially tied to Mahomes.
Of course, it is possible he remains more of a part-time player, he has struggled to stay on the field going all the way back to college, and is already dealing with an injury.
His price does not accurately reflect that downside risk, but Toney’s upside is undeniable.
A second-round pick last year, Skyy Moore‘s fantasy outlook is murky following a rough rookie season.
He never played more than 50% of the offensive snaps during the regular season, caught just 22 passes for 250 yards and zero scores, and fumbled three times.
His 1.51 yards per route run ranked 50th among qualifying receivers last season.
Moore was making the jump from Western Michigan to the NFL, so it is not shocking he struggled as a rookie.
It is also notable Mecole Hardman had a difficult start to his career, so perhaps the Chiefs just take it slow with their rookies. Of course, Hardman also never really hit.
Much like Toney, Moore has massive upside if he steps up as the No. 1 receiver, and he has few obstacles standing in his way. On the other hand, he struggled to earn playing time in a similarly lackluster receiver corps last year.
Moore's ADP has climbed inside the top 50 receivers with Toney's injury, and reports inside Chiefs camp have the sophomore working nearly exclusively with the first team. As it stands, Moore looks like the best bet of this receiving group.
Hadman’s and Moore’s rookie history could be a bad sign for second-round pick Rashee Rice, who played his college ball at SMU.
Rice did not surpass 700 yards during his first three seasons in college, but he posted a 96-1,355-10 line last season on 157 targets.
He also tested well at the Combine, running a 4.51 at 6-foot-1, 204 pounds with a 41-inch vertical.
Rice played primarily on the outside last year, but he was dominant in the slot, averaging 4.99 yards per route run.
He also was used at every level. He had 35 screen targets, which was the most in the rookie class, but also led the class with 40 targets on throws 20 yards or more down the field.
He is the kind of well-rounded receiver the Chiefs need in the No. 1 spot, and he costs about the same as Valdes-Scantling.
Justyn Ross also deserves a mention. A history of foot injuries tanked his draft stock and cost him his rookie season, but he was an elite prospect prior to the injuries and is reportedly healthy heading into training camp.
Ross is not even guaranteed a roster spot, but he is a name to watch in this wide-open receiver corps.
2022 Chiefs Rushing Stats:
- Rushing Attempts – Scrambles: 371 (32nd)
- Yards Before Contact Per Attempt: 3.2 (6th)
- Football Outsiders’ Adjusted Line Yards: 4.82 (3rd)
- ESPN’s Run Block Win Rate: 74% (3rd)
2023 Chiefs Running Game Preview:
The Chiefs will face the seventh-easiest rushing schedule based on 2022 efficiency numbers.
- RB: Isiah Pacheco, Jerick McKinnon, Clyde Edwards-Helaire
- OL: Donovan Smith, Joe Thuney, Creed Humphrey, Trey Smith, Jawaan Taylor
A seventh-round pick last year, Isiah Pacheco emerged midway through his rookie season.
From his first start in Week 7 on, he handled 139 carries for 681 yards and four touchdowns.
Over that span, he was 12th among qualifying running backs in yards per carry (4.9), 14th in success rate (42.4%), and first in the percentage of his runs that resulted in zero or negative yards (8.2%).
Pacheco elevated the Kansas City running game, but he was an afterthought in the passing game.
He was targeted just 14 times all season, although he did catch 13 of those for 130 yards. He ran 127 routes from Week 7 on. That ranked just 36th among all running backs.
He also struggled as a pass protector, allowing pressure on 28% of his snaps in protection, the second-highest rate at running back.
Kansas City did not bring in any new competition, but they did re-sign Jerick McKinnon, who ran 239 routes and was targeted 57 times after Pacheco took over as the starter.
McKinnon’s return suggests Pacheco will be in the same role he occupied late last season when he averaged 13.6 touches over the final 11 games. He was the RB34 per game over that span.
He did undershoot his expected touchdown total a bit last season and dominated goal-to-go carries from Week 7 on – 12 of Kansas City’s 25, the next closest player was Mahomes with four.
If the receiving usage does not improve, Pacheco will be something of a touchdown-dependent fantasy option, but that is not as big of a concern given the Kansas City offense.
Pacheco is a fine pick at the back end of the RB2 tier, and there are some upside outs as he heads into his sophomore season.
As for McKinnon, he ran hot from a touchdown perspective down the stretch last season, scoring nine total touchdowns on 60 touches over the final six games.
McKinnon is a good bet to keep the receiving role that netted him 56 catches and 512 yards on 71 targets a season ago, but he averaged just 6.2 fantasy points in games without a touchdown last season.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire has to be mentioned, but the writing is on the wall for his Chiefs career. He was phased out of the offense almost completely before suffering his injury, and Kansas City left him inactive in the Super Bowl.
It is possible CEH returns fantasy value this season, but he might need a new team to make that happen.
