The Worksheet, a fantasy football overview by Rich Hribar, breaking down everything you need to know for the Week 10 Kansas City Chiefs at Las Vegas Raiders Sunday Night Football game.
| Kansas City | Rank | @ | Las Vegas | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -2.5 | Spread | 2.5 | ||
| 27.5 | Implied Total | 25 | ||
| 24.6 | 15 | Points/Gm | 24.5 | 16 |
| 25.2 | 24 | Points All./Gm | 23.6 | 15 |
| 68.2 | 3 | Plays/Gm | 65.4 | 9 |
| 60.8 | 7 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 66.9 | 27 |
| 5.8 | 14 | Off. Yards/Play | 6 | 8 |
| 6.3 | 32 | Def. Yards/Play | 5.1 | 4 |
| 35.67% | 28 | Rush% | 36.90% | 26 |
| 64.33% | 5 | Pass% | 63.10% | 7 |
| 42.96% | 22 | Opp. Rush % | 43.36% | 24 |
| 57.04% | 11 | Opp. Pass % | 56.64% | 9 |
- The Chiefs are 2-7 (22.2%) against the spread this season, 31st in the league.
- The Chiefs are 26th in the league in expected points added per play (-0.076) over the past three weeks after ranking second Weeks 1-6 (.182 per play).
- The Chiefs are 30th in the NFL in points per play (0.168) over the past three weeks.
- Kansas City has converted 37.8% (14-of-37) of their third down plays over that span (19th) after 60.3% prior (first).
- In two games against the Chiefs a year ago, the Raiders scored on 62.3% of their drives and a touchdown on 47.4%. Versus the rest of the league, those marks were 47.9% and 27.1%.
- Kansas City is allowing a league-high 6.9 yards per play on first down.
- The Raiders are allowing 4.8 yards per play on first down, third in the league.
Trust = spike production for that player
Bust = down-week production for that player’s standards
Quarterback
Patrick Mahomes: Last week Mahomes entered the week coming off his first back-to-back weeks outside of QB1 scoring in the same season and he extended that streak to a third game, completing just 54.1% of his passes for 166 yards. Mahomes threw for a season-low 4.5 yards per pass attempt, his fifth game with fewer than 6.0 Y/A over his past seven games played.
The Chiefs are legitimately in a rut offensively that stems further than defensive tactics as Mahomes has thrown two touchdown passes over the past three weeks for 5.4 yards per pass attempt.
We keep waiting for the switch to turn back on and the fantasy points to flow again, but this matchup is tough to see that instantly being the one for it flip. The Raiders already do not blitz, sending extra defenders on just 13.5% of dropbacks, which is 31st in the league. Even without blitzing, they still rank fifth in the league in pressure rate (27.3%).
Facing pressure over the past three weeks, Mahomes is 9-of-32 passing (28.1%) for 2.9 yards per pass attempt. Over the opening six games, Mahomes was completing 47.1% of his passes for 8.6 yards per pass attempt under pressure.
But even kept clean there is a massive difference. Through six weeks, Mahomes was completing 77.9% of his passes for 7.5 Y/A and 14 touchdowns. Over the past three weeks, he is completing 68.2% of his passes for 6.3 Y/A from a clean pocket.
The Raiders are 11th in passing points allowed per attempt (0.41) and ninth in passing points allowed per game (14.3) while they are second in yards allowed per pass attempt (6.3 Y/A) and first in yards allowed per completion (9.6 yards). All of this doesn’t scream that this is the matchup on paper where the Chiefs just break out and start carving things up downfield.
Now, the real question is do you finally sit Mahomes since now his floor is as low as anyone else going? That is harder to diagnose based on what is available, but with a lighter streaming week with weak options, I believe it is hard to go to the top streamers (Roethlisberger, Bridgewater, Ryan) over him, but I am handling him as a lower-end QB1 option in this matchup.
Derek Carr (TRUST): Carr came out of the bye with his second-lowest-scoring game of the season (10.3 points), throwing for just 6.4 yards per attempt and turning the ball over three times against the Giants. The Raiders dealt with another in-house event this past week that surely impacted their performance.
Carr and the offense will look to get on track against a Kansas City defense they put up 40 and 31 points against a year ago. Currently, the Chiefs are 31st in the league in sacks (12), 26th in points allowed per attempt (0.48), 29th in yards allowed per pass attempt (8.1 Y/A), and 26th in yards allowed per completion (12.2).
Running Back
Darrel Williams: Williams has carried the ball 58 times for 201 yards (3.5 YPC) the past four weeks since losing Clyde Edwards-Helaire, but the Chiefs have committed to feeding him touches despite the low leverage results. Williams has 19 or more touches in three of those four games, tacking on three or more receptions in all four games.
The Raiders can be run on, allowing 4.6 yards per carry to backs (26th) and 14.8 rushing points allowed per game (25th) to backfields, making Williams a volume-based RB2.
Josh Jacobs: Jacobs turned 17 touches into 95 yards last week, the most yards from scrimmage he has had in a game this season. After averaging fewer than 4.0 yards per carry in each of his first four games played this year, Jacobs has averaged 4.8 and 5.8 yards per tote the past two games. Jacobs is even getting a sprinkle of use in the passing game, averaging a career-high 3.0 catches per game.
The Chiefs are allowing 4.4 yards per carry (21st) and 0.96 points per touch (26th) to backfields, giving Jacobs runway for a strong performance as an RB2 if the Raiders stay in neutral game script.
Kenyan Drake: Drake has reestablished a role in the offense since the departure of Jon Gruden. After playing a season-low 18% of the snaps in that final game with Gruden, Drake has gone to 21%, 39%, and 45% of the snaps the past three games with three straight RB1 scoring weeks in PPR formats. Drake has run hot on his usage of six, 17 (with Jacobs exiting early), and 10 touches, but he is back to being a viable FLEX play against a Kansas City defense allowing 12.2 receiving points per game (23rd) to backfields.
Wide Receiver
Tyreek Hill: Hill only brought in four passes for 37 yards last week, but he did see another 11 targets (30.6%) come his way. Hill has now seen double-digit targets in four of his past five games with nine or more targets in all of those games. Hill already has 101 targets on the season.
The Raiders are allowing a league-low 26.5% completion rate on targets 15 yards or further downfield and are one of just two teams yet to allow a touchdown pass on those throws to this point in the season. Hill can win over the top against anyone, but even if this is a matchup set up to limit him from getting downfield, he is seeing too many targets per week to move away from as a WR1 option.
Hunter Renfrow: Renfrow has caught five or more passes in every game but one this season with double-digit PPR points in seven of eight games played. Renfrow has just one week finishing outside of the top-48 scorers in PPR formats and is coming off matching a season-high of nine targets. Renfrow has hit 70 yards in just two games with a high of 77 yards in a game but has established himself as a floor-based WR3 in PPR formats.
Mecole Hardman: Every time Hardman appears to take a step forward, he almost immediately takes a step back. Hardman has been a WR3 or better in three games this season, and the following week afterward has then been the WR50 or lower. He has found the end zone just one time. He sits 26 targets below Travis Kelce for third on the team but has a 25-target gap on the next closest player. Hardman is more of a single-game DFS option than a redraft play.
Raiders WRs: The Raiders brought in DeSean Jackson this week to directly take over the vacated vertical role in their offense. It is lofty to expect the 34-year-old Jackson to take over the same vacated target share, but from a tactical stance for the offense, he replaces a proxy of what was lost. Jackson is only a single-game DFS dart throw.
Bryan Edwards was goose-egged last week on four targets and has not caught more than three passes in a game since Week 1, leaving him in the same bucket of single-game DFS options.
Tight End
Travis Kelce (TRUST): Kelce has not provided the same positional leverage as he did in 2020, but he still is pacing the position from a fantasy stance on the year. Kelce is averaging what would be a career-low 11.6 yards per catch and 7.9 yards per target but has still secured five or more receptions in seven of the nine games this season and has been a top-seven scorer in every game but two on the year.
The Raiders have faced 8.8 targets per game to opposing tight ends (fourth most) given their defensive approach this season wanting to funnel targets underneath. They are allowing 7.6 yards per target (20th) and a 7.1% touchdown rate (24th) on those targets.
Darren Waller (TRUST): Waller came back to the lineup last to catch 7-of-11 targets for 92 yards and he had two open end zone targets where he was missed for potential scores. Waller has found the end zone just twice this season so far but has a team-high six end zone targets.
He scored in both matchups with the Chiefs last year while Kansas City has been beaten up by tight ends when teams go to them. The Chiefs have faced just 6.8 targets per game to tight ends (14th), but have allowed a league-high 10.1 yards per target and are 31st in touchdown rate allowed (9.8%) on those targets.
More Week 10 Fantasy breakdowns from The Worksheet:
BAL at MIA | DET at PIT | ATL at DAL | TB at WFT | BUF at NYJ | CLE at NE | NO at TEN | JAX at IND | CAR at ARI | MIN at LAC | PHI at DEN | SEA at GB | KC at LVR | LAR at SF
