In this college football DFS preview, I’ll break down the DraftKings Saturday main slate into three categories: players to build around, value plays, and players to avoid.
Players to build around carry more expensive salaries, but they are worth prioritizing in your lineup due to their high ceiling. Value plays are lower-salaried options that come with some risk, but adding them to your lineup will help you afford the expensive stars. Players to avoid are fantasy-relevant options you might normally consider but have a tough matchup this week and are unlikely to meet their usual expectations.
All references to fantasy points per game are based on the DraftKings scoring system. All references to spreads and totals are from BetMGM.
Key Play-Calling Data
Team Seconds per Play Overall Pass Rate 2nd Half Pass Rate w/ Lead 2nd Half Pass Rate Trailing Wake Forest 22.1 53.4% 45.5% 66.7% Clemson 24.6 52.3% 42.2% 54.8% Florida State 26.1 51.2% 38.6% 57.8% Boston College 27.0 45.2% 32.2% 58.6% Iowa State 28.3 55.1% 43.0% 62.4% Oklahoma 27.3 54.6% 43.5% 61.3% Texas 25.0 49.1% 32.6% 61.8% West Virginia 27.7 56.3% 41.9% 65.0% Purdue 25.7 62.3% 52.0% 72.3% Northwestern 24.4 50.7% 26.3% 59.4% Michigan State 25.1 46.4% 40.1% 62.3% Ohio State 25.1 53.9% 44.9% 67.8% Rutgers 26.3 46.3% 29.3% 50.0% Penn State 23.3 58.7% 50.2% 65.7% Illinois 26.9 43.5% 26.0% 56.7% Iowa 27.8 48.1% 39.4% 58.5% Georgia Tech 22.4 51.4% 36.2% 60.4% Notre Dame 25.8 51.7% 38.2% 58.6% Arkansas 24.8 40.6% 31.7% 46.7% Alabama 27.1 53.9% 45.0% 63.0% SMU 23.9 56.6% 44.3% 66.7% Cincinnati 26.0 51.3% 43.7% 54.2% Virginia 24.8 67.5% 52.0% 75.6% Pittsburgh 23.8 58.4% 40.6% 74.5% Michigan 27.7 39.8% 33.1% 48.6% Maryland 24.0 58.2% 40.3% 63.8% Nebraska 24.6 47.9% 30.8% 62.9% Wisconsin 29.8 35.0% 23.5% 56.7%
Color Code: Blue: Top 20th Percentile | Green: 60-79th | Yellow: 40-59th | Orange: 20-39th | Red: 0-19th
PLAYERS TO BUILD AROUND
QB Brennan Armstrong, Virginia at Pittsburgh
Salary: $10,000
Due to a rib injury, Brennan Armstrong missed last week’s game against Notre Dame, but he’s hopeful to return against Pittsburgh.
Pitt and Virginia rank 19th and 36th respectively in pace of play, so expect a shootout in this matchup if Armstrong is able to suit up.
The salary is intimidating, but Armstrong has topped 40 points three times, including two games over 50, so we know the necessary ceiling is there.
QB C.J. Stroud, Ohio State vs. Michigan State
Salary: $9,500
Five quarterbacks have scored at least 25 fantasy points against Michigan State, tied for the fifth-most in FBS.
According to Sports Info Solutions, Michigan State has allowed a 51.1% completion rate on throws 10 or more yards downfield, ranked 101st. 45% of Stroud’s attempts have been at least 10 yards downfield, so there’s good reason to believe he’ll pick apart the Spartan’s secondary.
The Spartans also struggle to get pressure on the quarterback 一 they rank 85th in pressure rate, per Sports Info Solutions 一 and Stroud averages 10.0 yards per attempt in a clean pocket.
QB Kenny Pickett, Pittsburgh vs. Virginia
Salary: $9,100
Pittsburgh is, somewhat surprisingly, favored by 14.5 points in this matchup (likely due to Armstrong’s questionable status). As a result, Kenny Pickett is most attractive in game stacks, based on the possibility this turns into a wild shootout, rather than as a standalone play.
If Pitt wins easily, however, the Panthers will likely lean more heavily on the run game, taking advantage of the Cavaliers’ porous run defense. In that scenario, Pickett’s salary is likely too high for him to have much value in tournaments.
Quarterbacks have produced the high score against Virginia’s defense in only three games this season.
QB Desmond Ridder, Cincinnati vs. SMU
Salary: $8,900
In recent weeks Desmond Ridder has finally started to live up to high fantasy expectations, mostly because he’s running the ball again. In three straight weeks he’s carried the ball at least 12 times, while posting three of his four highest fantasy scores of the season.
Cincinnati might need style points to have a shot at the playoff now, and a big win over SMU would help. So we should assume Ridder has an elite ceiling in this matchup.
RB Hassan Haskins, Michigan at Maryland
Salary: $7,600
With Blake Corum injured, Hassan Haskins carried the load against Penn State last week (36 touches). There’s no reason for Michigan to rush Corum back with Ohio State waiting ahead next week, so expect another big workload for Haskins.
Maryland has surrendered 34.2 fantasy points per game to running backs, ranked 111th in the country.
RB Will Shipley, Clemson vs. Wake Forest
Salary: $6,700
Clemson’s offense can’t keep up with Wake Forest, so its game plan will undoubtedly be to control the ball on the ground with Will Shipley. This strategy worked a few weeks ago against Florida State when Shipley had 29 touches leading to 34.2 fantasy points.
The risk, of course, is that Wake’s offense could start rolling and Shipley will be phased out. Shipley averages just two targets per game, so if Clemson abandons the run game, Shipley’s value dries up.
In other words, don’t use Shipley in a stack with Wake’s weapons. He probably only has value in a close, lower-scoring game.
RB Leddie Brown, West Virginia vs. Texas
Salary: $6,200
In Big 12 play, the high fantasy score against Texas has belonged to a running back in six of seven games, with a low score of 24.3 points and a high of 45.9. Leddie Brown has topped 30 points four times, so we know that's an achievable ceiling against a poor defense.
The Longhorns can make a bowl game if they win out, so they still have something to play for, but if West Virginia gains an early lead (favored by 2.5 points), it would not be shocking if they start to quit and Brown runs all over this defense.
WR Dontayvion Wicks, Virginia at Pittsburgh
Salary: $8,000
Considering the salary, Dontayvion Wicks is only appealing if Brennan Armstrong is able to play. With Jay Woolfolk at quarterback last week, Wicks hauled in just two catches on six targets 一 though Pitt’s defense is not as strong as Notre Dame’s.
Prior to last week, Wicks had reached at least 25 fantasy points in six of his last eight games. So he clearly has an elite ceiling if Armstrong can suit up.
WR Xavier Worthy, Texas vs. West Virginia
Salary: $7,200
I’ll keep my exposure to Xavier Worthy low because this salary seems high given his inconsistency, but he’s worth taking a chance on, due to an elite ceiling (three games over 35 points).
With Bijan Robinson done for the year, it’s possible Texas is forced to lean more heavily on the passing game. Worthy leads the team with a 29.4% target share and a strong average depth of target (aDOT) at 13.5 yards downfield.
WR Jordan Addison, Pittsburgh vs. Virginia
Salary: $7,100
The Virginia defense has struggled all season and has been especially vulnerable lately, allowing at least 20 fantasy points to a receiver in four of its last five games 一 only the inept Duke offense failed to reach that threshold.
In eight of 10 games, Jordan Addison has finished as Pittsburgh’s WR1, so it’s a safe bet he’ll be the receiver to capitalize on the Cavaliers’ defensive issues.
WR Keytaon Thompson, Virginia at Pittsburgh
Salary: $6,800
With Woolfolk at quarterback last week, Keytaon Thompson was Virginia’s only receiver able to maintain production (24.1 fantasy points on nine receptions).
13 of Woolfolk’s 18 completions came on throws within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage, so slot receivers Thompson and Billy Kemp IV ($6,100) were slightly more productive in their roles.
Kemp left last week’s game with a leg injury and is questionable for Saturday’s action. Given his role and Kemp’s potential absence, Thompson might be the only Virginia receiver worth rostering regardless of the quarterback situation.
WR Zay Flowers, Boston College vs. Florida State
Salary: $6,700
Over the last two seasons with Phil Jurkovec at quarterback, Zay Flowers has averaged 20.7 fantasy points per game.
He struggled during Jurkovec’s absence, but has topped 24 points in two of three full games with his starting quarterback this year.
WR1s average 19.3 fantasy points per game against Florida State (ranked 78th). Flowers has been the Eagles’ WR1 in all three of Jurkovec’s full games.
WR Jayden Reed, Michigan State at Ohio State
Salary: $6,500
If Jalen Nailor is unable to go (missed two straight games with a hand injury), Jayden Reed is appealing on this reasonable salary. In Nailor’s asbense, Reed has 21 targets over the last two weeks (36% target share) with a 13.8 aDOT.
Pass-catchers have produced the top fantasy score against Ohio State in seven of 10 games this season.
WR Chris Olave, Ohio State vs. Michigan State
Salary: $6,400
As previously mentioned, Ohio State should have no issues throwing downfield against the Spartans (see C.J. Stroud), and Chris Olave is the Buckeyes’ primary downfield weapon. According to Sports Info Solutions, 55% of Olave’s targets have come at least 10 yards downfield.
Higher salaries for Jaxon Smith-Njigba ($7,900) and Garrett Wilson ($6,800) make Olave the preferred target, though any of those three can be rostered. All three have finished as Ohio State’s WR1 in fantasy scoring three times, with tight end Jeremy Ruckert ($3,700) leading the way in the other game.
For cash games, Wilson is the safest option 一 he’s been the Buckeyes WR1 or WR2 in nine of 10 games.
CFB DFS VALUE PLAYS
QB Cade McNamara, Michigan at Maryland
Salary: $5,500
In six of its last seven games, Maryland has allowed at least 20 fantasy points to quarterbacks. Cade McNamara has reached that threshold only once (versus Michigan State) but he should have an elevated ceiling against the Terps.
This is also Michigan’s final tune-up before a critical showdown against Ohio State. For the Wolverines to have a shot against the Buckeyes, McNamara has to shoulder more of the load. So it would make sense if Michigan comes out throwing against Maryland to work out some kinks in an inconsistent passing game.
QB Phil Jurkovec, Boston College vs. Florida State
Salary: $4,500
You can’t afford to not roster Phil Jurkovec this week. Unfortunately, for that reason, his rostership will be through the roof.
Jukovec, who returned from injury two weeks ago, is coming off a 48.5-point outburst against Georgia Tech and faces a Florida State defense that ranks 115th in fantasy points per game allowed to quarterbacks (25.8 points).
Dating back to last season, Jurkovec has reached at least 20 fantasy points in nine of 13 full games, so he’s a virtual lock to exceed expectations on this comical salary.
RB Pat Garwo III, Boston College vs. Florida State
Salary: $5,800
So long as the game script cooperates, Boston College’s plan is to lean heavily on Pat Garwo 一 he’s averaged 26.3 carries in the Eagles three victories over Power 5 opponents.
Florida State’s run defense is respectable 一 only Notre Dame’s Kyren Williams has topped 20 fantasy points against them 一 but with BC favored by 1.5 points, Garwo could see a volume that allows him to post a big number.
RB Israel Abanikanda, Pittsburgh vs. Virginia
Salary: $5,300
Keep an eye on the health of Virginia quarterback Brennan Armstrong before rostering Israel Abanikanda. If Armstrong can’t go, Virginia probably won’t be competitive with Pitt, potentially leading to a more run-heavy game plan for the Panthers.
Opponents are averaging 58.9 rushing yards per game above their season average against the Virginia defense, the 18th highest rate in the nation.
RB King Doerue, Purdue at Northwestern
Salary: $4,500
Opponents are averaging 75.4 rushing yards per game above their season average when playing Northwestern, the eighth highest rate in the nation, so we should expect a significant boost in production from King Doerue and Zander Horvath ($3,400).
Since Horvath returned from injury three weeks ago, Doerue has remained the lead back, but Horvath has double-digit touches in two of those three games as well.
Against the Big Ten’s worst defense, both ball carriers should get enough opportunities to provide value on their modest salaries.
RB Roschon Johnson, Texas vs. West Virginia
Salary: $3,800
With Bijan Robinson done for the year, Roschon Johnson is expected to take over as the lead back at Texas. Johnson has been in the backfield rotation for three years now, so we know what to expect 一 he’s a quality downhill runner but not nearly the home run threat Robinson has become for the Longhorns.
Johnson is worth taking a flier on this week due to the reasonable salary and the support from a decent offensive line. Texas running backs have gained 2.5 yards before contact per attempt, ranked 37th according to Sports Info Solutions.
Head coach Steve Sarkisian has typically leaned on a single feature back, so we could see a significant role for Johnson if the game script allows.
RB Dominique Johnson, Arkansas at Alabama
Salary: $3,000
Arkansas has benched Trelon Smith ($4,700) and given Dominique Johnson the overwhelming majority of snaps at running back the last two weeks.
Alabama is a tough matchup 一 the Tide rank 22nd in fantasy points allowed to running backs 一 but any feature back at the salary floor is obviously worth a dart throw.
Johnson posted 29.4 fantasy points against a good Mississippi State defense two weeks ago 一 ranked 10th in fantasy points allowed to running backs 一 so there’s reason to believe he’s capable of posting a massive score relative to his salary.
RB Charles McClelland, Cincinnati vs. SMU
Salary: $3,000
With starting running back Jerome Ford ($8,400) out last week, Charles McClelland drew the start and had eight touches against South Florida. If Ford can’t go this week, McClelland could see a larger role in what should be a more competitive game.
Backup Ethan Wright ($3,800) also had 10 carries last game and could also be worthy of a dart throw if Ford is unable to play.
WR Kyric McGowan, Georgia Tech vs. Notre Dame
Salary: $5,300
Notre Dame is allowing 21.6 fantasy points per game to WR1s, ranked 108th. Kyric McGowan leads Georgia Tech with a 20.4% target share and has a strong 10.3 aDOT. McGowan also has a team-high 11 end zone targets, per Sports Info Solutions.
Due to Notre Dame’s inconsistent pass defense, Malachi Carter ($4,700) is also worth considering due to his target share (17.2%) and aDOT (11.0). Carter has finished as Georgia Tech’s WR1 three times this season.
WR Beaux Collins, Clemson vs. Wake Forest
Salary: $4,500
Clemson will be without wide receiver Justyn Ross and potentially Joseph Ngata as well, which could further increase Beaux Collins’s role in the offense. Over the last two weeks, Collins leads Clemson with 18 targets while reaching at least 15 fantasy points in each game.
Assuming Ngata is out, E.J. Williams ($3,000) will also likely see increased action. Williams saw four targets last week and five the week prior.
Last week against UConn, Dacari Collins ($3,500) saw a substantial role (12 targets) but entered the week with just eight targets on the year, having played exclusively in garbage time. It’s probably best to assume Clemson was taking advantage of an overmatched opponent to get some reps for a young prospect and the more experienced Williams will see the larger role against Wake.
It’s also worth mentioning Ajou Ajou ($3,200) who was briefly fantasy relevant in two starts earlier this year. He’s barely seen the field in recent weeks and Dabo Swinney has confirmed he’s no longer in the mix for meaningful playing time.
WR Mike Woods, Oklahoma
Salary: $3,800
Iowa State’s pass defense has been tough this season, holding opponents 44.4 yards per game below their season average (ranked 11th). As a result, fading Oklahoma seems like a good strategy with the expectation of Mike Woods, who has to be considered on this low salary.
In his return to the field last week, Woods led Oklahoma with six targets at an aDOT of 15.7 yards.
Five different Oklahoma receivers have led the team in fantasy scoring this season, so it’s a risk to roster any of them. If you do want a part of the Oklahoma offense, it’s probably best to gamble on the cheaper salaries like Woods or Jeremiah Hall ($3,800).
WR Shocky Jacques-Louis, Pittsburgh vs. Virginia
Salary: $3,100
The value of Shocky Jacques-Louis depends on the health of Taysir Mack, who has missed Pitt’s last two games, so monitor Mack’s situation before rostering his backup.
In two games without Mack, Jacques-Louis has been Pitt’s third option at receiver, running 57 routes 一 33 more than Pitt’s next most-used receiver.
Unfortunately he finished with zero catches on two targets last week, so the floor is low, but his salary appropriately reflects that reality. The previous week, Jacques-Louis had six catches for 66 yards and even had two rushing attempts, en route 13.5 fantasy points.
This game has shootout potential, so rostering a starting receiver at a near-floor salary is certainly appealing.
CFB DFS PLAYERS TO FADE
Wake Forest’s Offense
Louisville’s Malik Cunningham (on the strength of his rushing numbers) is the only quarterback to top 25 fantasy points against Clemson’s defense. Sam Hartman’s salary ($10,300) would be excessive in almost any matchup, but certainly against a defense holding quarterbacks to 13.3 fantasy points per game.
Only two receivers have topped 20 fantasy points against Clemson, so it’s also difficult to justify Jaquarii Roberson ($8,300) or A.T. Perry ($8,200).
With Christian Beal-Smith likely out for this game, backup running back Justice Ellison ($4,300) is tempting, but only Syracuse’s Sean Tucker has reached 15 fantasy points against the Tigers’ defense.
RB Breece Hall, Iowa State vs. Oklahoma
Salary: $9,300
I trust Breece Hall for cash games, but I’ll fade him in tournaments this week based on the salary (highest among running backs) and this matchup with Oklahoma.
The Oklahoma defense is holding opponents 44 rushing yards per game below their season average, ranked 23rd in the country.
Additionally, only two running backs have reached 25 fantasy points against Oklahoma 一 a threshold Hall absolutely must hit to have any value on this salary.