In this college football DFS preview, I'll break down the Saturday main slate into three categories: players to build around, value plays, and players to avoid.
Players to build around carry more expensive salaries, but they are worth prioritizing in your lineup due to their high ceiling. Value plays are lower-salaried options who come with some risk, but adding them to your lineup will help you afford the expensive stars. Players to avoid are fantasy-relevant options you might normally consider but have a tough matchup this week and are unlikely to meet their usual expectations.
All references to fantasy points per game are based on the DraftKings scoring system. All references to spreads and totals are from BetMGM.
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Key Play-Calling Data (2020 season)
| Team | Plays Per Game | Overall Pass Rate | 2nd Half Pass Rate w/ Lead | 2nd Half Pass Rate Trailing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nebraska | 70.4 | 49% | 31% | 53% |
| Illinois | 65.1 | 41% | 25% | 49% |
| UConn | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Fresno State | 77.3 | 63% | 48% | 73% |
| Hawaii | 71.1 | 64% | 42% | 66% |
| UCLA | 74.1 | 48% | 30% | 51% |
PLAYERS TO BUILD AROUND
QB Jake Haener, Fresno State at UConn
DraftKings Salary: $9,700
FanDuel Salary: $11,000
Fresno State carries the highest implied total on the slate (45.8 points), so stacking Bulldogs, starting with quarterback Jake Haener, looks like a winning strategy. UConn will be playing its first game since 2019, when it went 1-10 against FBS opponents surrendering 40.5 points per game.
In five of six games last year, Haener scored more fantasy points than his opponents’ average points surrendered to quarterbacks. And in four games against bottom-tier fantasy defenses (ranked 75th or lower in quarterback points per game allowed), he averaged 31.4 points per game.
If you roster Haener, you can consider stacking him with both running back Ronnie Rivers and receiver Jalen Cropper. In 2020, the trio each posted over 15 fantasy points in three of five full games together, including one game in which they each topped 30 points.
QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson, UCLA vs. Hawaii
DraftKings Salary: $8,500
FanDuel Salary: $12,000
UCLA is a 17.5-point favorite with an implied total of 42.8 points. Dorian Thompson-Robinson ranked 11th in the nation in fantasy points per game last year among quarterbacks who appeared in at least five contests.
DTR is among the safest bets on this slate, but it’s also worth noting quarterbacks consistently underperformed against Hawaii last year. The Warriors held opposing quarterbacks to 13.9 fantasy points per game, the ninth fewest in the nation, and held quarterbacks below their season average in seven of nine games. This is partially due to a terrible run defense, which skewed production in that direction, so DTR’s dual-threat ability still makes him a solid play.
QB Chevan Cordeiro, Hawaii at UCLA
DraftKings Salary: $7,500
FanDuel Salary: $9,500
Excluding games against defenses ranked in the top 30 in quarterback points allowed (Wyoming and San Diego State), Hawaii’s Chevan Cordeiro averaged 29.0 fantasy points per game and reached at least 20 in each contest. UCLA ranked 94th (24.7 points per game allowed) so this looks like a great matchup.
A potential risk in rostering Cordeiro is UCLA’s pass-rush, which ranked eighth in the nation in sacks per game last year. Cordeiro is a dual-threat quarterback who averaged 72.4 rushing yards per game, excluding sacks. However, he took 3.4 sacks per game, dropping his official rushing output to 53.6 yards per game.
RB Ronnie Rivers, Fresno State vs. UConn
DraftKings Salary: $7,800
FanDuel Salary: $10,500
Prior to an injury late last season, Fresno State running back Ronnie Rivers received 77% of the handoffs in the Bulldogs offense and ran routes on 56.3% of the team’s pass plays, according to Sports Info Solutions.
Rivers ranked sixth among running backs averaging 26.4 fantasy points per game, but that number rises 32.8 when we throw out his -0.1 point performance against New Mexico (due to injury).
When UConn last took the field in 2019, it surrendered 6.5 rushing yards per attempt 一 only UMass was worse.
RB Calvin Turner, Hawaii at UCLA
DraftKings Salary: $6,400
FanDuel Salary: $9,200
According to Sports Info Solutions, Calvin Turner ran routes on 61.9% of Hawaii’s pass plays in 2020, so he is definitely not a game-script-dependent fantasy option. He’s also not the typical receiving threat in the backfield, as he saw an average depth of target at 5.0 yards downfield (second in the nation among running backs), and it increased to 7.0 yards when Hawaii was trailing in the second half.
If the game stays close, Turner should have success on the ground too. The Bruins ranked 56th in the nation in fantasy points per game allowed to running backs (27.9) and will be replacing their top interior lineman, Osa Odighizuwa.
RB Brittain Brown, UCLA vs. Hawaii
DraftKings Salary: $5,600
FanDuel Salary: $8,600
UCLA has a crowded backfield this year, so there’s some risk in rostering Brittain Brown, but he’s listed as the starter ahead of Michigan transfer Zach Charbonnet (DK: $5,300 | FD: $6,600). In 2020, Brown accounted for 17% of the opportunity share in Chip Kelly’s offense, with Demetric Felton (NFL) dominating the workload with a 30% share.
Brown ran routes on 16.2% of UCLA’s pass plays, according to Sports Info Solutions, but Felton was involved on 50.6%. If Brown steps into that role, he’ll emerge as a fantasy stud this season.
UCLA running backs coach DeShaun Foster recently described Brown as a “slasher” while calling Charbonnet a “bruiser.” That certainly makes it sound as though Brown is more of the prototypical do-everything running back for Kelly’s offense.
WR Jalen Cropper, Fresno State vs. UConn
DraftKings Salary: $7,300
FanDuel Salary: $9,400
Fresno State slot receiver Jalen Cropper led the team with a 23.9% target share in 2020, and has to be mentioned given his weak opponent, but his massive salary is almost cost-prohibitive.
Cropper ranked 26th in the nation among receivers in fantasy points per game last year (21.6) 一 but if you remove his 51.2-point outburst versus Utah State, his average drops to 15.7.
It’s also worth noting Cropper’s highest volume game (12 receptions, 34.4 fantasy points versus New Mexico) came without Ronnie Rivers on the field.
Chasing that monster game by pairing him with Haener makes sense in a few lineups, but there are many other recievers who offer better value on this slate.
WR Jared Smart, Hawaii vs. UCLA
DraftKings Salary: $6,200
FanDuel Salary: $7,500
Four Hawaii players saw a target share over 15% last season with slot receiver Jared Smart leading the way at 16.2%. Since they spread the ball around, it’s tough to trust Smart too much, but of those four primary weapons, only Smart and Turner are back.
Hawaii throws the ball 66% of the time in the second half when trailing, so there should be plenty of targets to go around in this one.
VALUE PLAYS
QB Adrian Martinez, Nebraska vs. Illinois
DraftKings Salary: $6,800
FanDuel Salary: $8,600
Nebraska quarterback Adrian Martinez averaged 24.0 fantasy points per game in six starts last season, and eclipsed the 30-point mark twice.
Martinez did not start last season against Illinois, but his replacement, Luke McCaffrey, posted 26.8 fantasy points (in large part due to 122 rushing yards) with Martinez adding another 6.5 fantasy points off the bench.
The Illini allowed 5.8 rushing yards per attempt to quarterbacks (excluding sacks, sneaks and kneel downs), the sixth highest rate in the Big Ten. 35% of Martinez’s fantasy points came in the run game, making this an ideal matchup for him.
RB Zach Charbonnet, UCLA vs. Hawaii
DraftKings Salary: $5,300
FanDuel Salary: $6,600
Zach Charbonnet transferred from Michigan this offseason and lost out on the competition for the starting job to Brown. However, Charbonnet will still be involved and UCLA ran the ball at a 70% rate when holding a second-half lead last season.
RB Jordan Mims, Fresno State vs. UConn
DraftKings Salary: $4,700
FanDuel Salary: $6,800
Jordan Mims is listed as the backup to Rivers on the Fresno State depth chart. As heavy favorites versus Connecticut, he should get some touches. The Bulldogs won three games by double digits last season and Mims saw seven, eight and three touches 一 so treat him as a tournament dart throw only.
WR Samori Toure, Nebraska vs. Illinois
DraftKings Salary: $4,900
FanDuel Salary: $7,000
Nebraska wide receiver Samori Toure transferred from Montana this offseason and is expected to emerge as the Huskers’ primary weapon in the slot.
In each of the last two seasons, Nebraska’s leading receiver has primarily operated from the slot (JD Spielman and WanDale Robinson) so there should immediately be a strong workload for the 6’3” Toure.
According to Sports Info Solutions, Illinois allowed 8.9 yards per target to slot receivers last year, ranked 13th in the Big Ten.
WR Nick Mardner, Hawaii vs. UCLA
DraftKings Salary: $4,900
FanDuel Salary: $6,500
Hawaii receiver Nick Mardner saw significant action early in the 2020 season but struggled and was relegated to a reserve role. He finished with a 6.6% target share but is listed as a starter on the depth chart for this game.
With Hawaii likely playing from behind, the 6’6” Mardner should get some opportunities and is a potential weapon near the goal line.
WR Chase Cota, UCLA vs. Hawaii
DraftKings Salary: $4,600
FanDuel Salary: $6,200
Chase Cota was targeted on just 10.7% of his routes last year, according to Sports Info Solutions. However, he was consistently on the field, running just 12 fewer routes than leading receiver Kyle Phillips. Perhaps his experience has earned him a few extra targets, especially in this potential blowout.
WR Donny Navarro III, Illinois vs. Nebraska
DraftKings Salary: $4,500
FanDuel Salary: $6,600
Illinois starting quarterback Brandon Peters had the highest average depth of throw in the Big Ten last season (11.4 yards downfield), according to Sports Info Solutions. Donny Navarro saw 68% of his targets at 10+ yards downfield and was third on the team in such targets behind wide receiver Josh Imatorbhebhe (NFL) and tight end Daniel Barker (returns). He has a low floor, but is worth throwing a dart at in hopes for some big plays downfield.
WR Josh Kelly, Fresno State vs. UConn
DraftKings Salary: $4,400
FanDuel Salary: $7,100
Josh Kelly is enticing on DraftKings, where he carries only the fourth-highest salary among Fresno State receivers. With the seventh most expensive salary among receivers on FanDuel, he’s probably too risky to roster.
In 2020, Kelly was the primary deep threat in the Fresno offense, commanding a 29% target share on throws 15+ yards downfield, according to Sports Info Solutions.
WR Kam Brown, UCLA vs. Hawaii
DraftKings Salary: $3,400
FanDuel Salary: $6,100
Kam Brown is a former four-star recruit who transferred this offseason after two seasons at Texas A&M. In 2020, Brown saw just seven targets on 65 routes for the Aggies. He’s a zero-floor option because we aren’t sure how he’ll be used, but the suspension of receiver Delon Hurt opens the door for him to have a significant immediate role.
PLAYERS TO AVOID
QB Brandon Peters, Illinois vs. Nebraska
DraftKings Salary: $4,200
FanDuel Salary: $7,600
This matchup carries the lowest total on the slate (55 points) and doesn’t offer the rushing upside as his counterpart Martinez.
Peters did score a season-high 21.8 fantasy points against Nebraska last season, but it came on the strength of his lone rushing touchdown. Since that was Peters’s only rush attempt inside the opponent’s five-yard line, we should probably consider that an outlier and expect his peak to be somewhere in the 15-17 point range.
RB Dae Dae Hunter, Hawaii vs. UCLA
DraftKings Salary: $4,400
FanDuel Salary: $6,200
Dae Dae Hunter will likely play a significant role in Hawaii’s run game, but he doesn’t have the same pass-game upside as Turner. He likely steps into a role more similar to Miles Reed (transferred), who ran routes on 32 percent of Hawaii’s pass plays in 2020.
RB Kevin Mensah, UConn vs. Fresno State
DraftKings Salary: $4,200
FanDuel Salary: $7,600
Kevin Mensah is appropriately valued on DraftKings, so he’s still in play there. On FanDuel, however, he carries the fifth-highest salary among running backs. Since we haven’t seen Connecticut on the field since 2019, it’s tough to trust Mensah as a heavy underdog on a high salary.
In 2019, Mensah averaged just 10.2 fantasy points per game, excluding his 46-point outburst against lowly UMass.
WR Kyle Phillips, UCLA, vs. Hawaii
DraftKings Salary: $7,000
FanDuel Salary: $8,300
Kyle Phillips commanded a strong 27.9% target share last year, but his fantasy production is heavily game-script-dependent. In UCLA wins, Phillips averaged just 8.8 fantasy points, compared to 18.3 points per game in losses.
When holding a lead in the second half, UCLA ran the ball at a 70% rate last season, so Phillips is extremely unlikely to see a full four-quarter workload.
Based on this same logic, tight end Greg Dulcich (DK: $6,000) | FD: $8,600) is also less attractive, though his DraftKings salary is more palatable.