The Worksheet, a fantasy football overview by Rich Hribar, breaking down everything you need to know for the Week 7 Indianapolis Colts at San Francisco 49ers Sunday Night Football game.
| Indianapolis | Rank | @ | San Francisco | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3.5 | Spread | -3.5 | ||
| 20.8 | Implied Total | 24.3 | ||
| 23.2 | 19 | Points/Gm | 23.4 | 17 |
| 21.8 | 11 | Points All./Gm | 23.8 | 15 |
| 61.8 | 19 | Plays/Gm | 63.8 | 17 |
| 61.8 | 14 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 62.4 | 15 |
| 5.9 | 9 | Off. Yards/Play | 5.8 | 16 |
| 5.9 | 22 | Def. Yards/Play | 5.3 | 8 |
| 42.86% | 13 | Rush% | 45.14% | 9 |
| 57.14% | 20 | Pass% | 54.86% | 24 |
| 43.94% | 23 | Opp. Rush % | 42.63% | 21 |
| 56.06% | 10 | Opp. Pass % | 57.37% | 12 |
- Under Kyle Shanahan, the 49ers are 13-20-1 (39.4%) against the spread at home, 31st in the league. That includes a 5-13-1 record ATS as a home favorite, 30th in the league over that span.
- The Colts are second in the NFL in yards per play on first down (6.6 yards).
- The Colts are allowing a league-low 3.7 yards per passing play on third downs.
- Indianapolis is first in the league in expected points added via their run defense (20.7 points), but 25th in expected points added via their pass defense (-63.4).
- 93.8% (15-of-16) of the touchdowns allowed by the Colts have come via passing, the highest rate in the league. League average is 64.0%.
Trust = spike production for that player
Bust = down-week production for that player’s standards
Quarterback
Carson Wentz: Wentz only threw 20 passes last week since the Texans didn’t fight back, but he still made the most of things, averaging 11.2 yards per pass attempt and scoring 17.0 fantasy points. It was the fifth time he hit 17 points in a game. Wentz only has one QB1 scoring week but has shown a high floor as a reliable 2QB option.
Wentz is averaging 11.8 yards per pass attempt with the use of play-action as opposed to 6.4 Y/A without. That 5.4 Y/A difference is the second-largest gap in the league behind Russell Wilson (5.7 Y/A). The key to rattling Wentz is generating pressure as he is completing 52.9% of his passes for 6.4 Y/A under pressure versus 70.7% for 8.9 Y/A when kept clean.
San Francisco is 24th in the league in pressure rate (21.7%) and they are 15th in sack rate (6.2%), but they have been solid against the pass to date, allowing 7.1 Y/A (12th) and 10.6 yards per completion (10th).
Jimmy Garoppolo: Garoppolo is expected to be the starter coming out of the bye after missing Week 5 with a calf injury. In his four starts this season, Garoppolo has been the QB24, QB13, QB22, and the QB31 in weekly scoring, only playing a half in that Week 4 start versus Seattle.
He is 19th in passing points per attempt (0.44) while the Colts are 31st in points allowed per attempt (0.60) to opposing passers, even factoring in shutting down Davis Mills last week. The Colts are allowing a 71.9% completion rate (30th) and 19.8 passing points per game (30th). They also are 32nd in the league in pressure rate (16.1%) on the year. Garoppolo has a 48.1% completion rate under pressure this season (although with four touchdown passes) compared to a 71.4% completion rate when kept clean. Garoppolo has not given us reason to trust him as a locked-in streamer, but the matchup lines up to put him on the board as having a solid fantasy line out of the bye.
Running Back
Jonathan Taylor: Taylor only had two carries at the half last week which was causing a lot of panic in fantasy circles, but Frank Reich came to grips with things in the second half as Taylor was able to turn 15 touches into 158 yards and two touchdowns against Houston. Taylor now has posted 114, 169, and 158 yards over his past three games. He also ran a pass route on a season-high 60.9% of the team dropbacks, besting his previous high of 42.1% by a wide margin. While that is continued bad news for Nyheim Hines hopefuls, we will take any steps forward with Taylor we can since this staff has not given him 20 touches in a game since Week 1.
San Francisco has been solid against the run, allowing 3.7 YPC to running backs (seventh), but they are 16th in rushing points allowed per game (12.5 points) due to allowing four rushing scores and they are 20th in receiving points allowed per game (11.7) to the position. Taylor is one of the better backs left on the board in Week 7, even if the Colts have not given the workload he deserves and he is a road underdog.
Elijah Mitchell: Mitchell only managed 43 yards on 11 touches in Week 5 prior to the bye, but he played 44 snaps (68%) compared to just two for Trey Sermon. In the three games that Mitchell has played, Sermon has played just three total snaps. We will see if the 49ers shuffle things around with JaMycal Hasty eligible to return off injured reserve, but Mitchell has been the favorite in the backfield whenever he has been active.
We won’t have to worry about all the quarterback runs this week with Garoppolo under center, but there are two elements in play here to cast some shade. One is that the 49ers may have settled on Kyle Juszczyk as their receiving back. Juszczyk led the backfield in pass routes and targets in all three games prior to the bye. Second, the Colts have only really done one thing well defensively all year, and it is stopping the run. They have allowed just 9.2 rushing points per game to backs (third) and are 12th in receiving points allowed to the position (8.9 per game). They even “held” Derrick Henry to 113 yards rushing on 28 carries (4.0 YPC). Mitchell is in a scheme we believe in and is attached to a home favorite for bonus but is more of an RB3/FLEX option due to the matchup and lack of receiving role.
Wide Receiver
Deebo Samuel (TRUST): Samuel is one of just two wideouts (Cooper Kupp) to have at least 25% of this team targets in every game this season. Samuel has 33.6% of the San Francisco targets (third among wide receivers). He does have the fifth most points over expectation (22.4) but is still the WR8 in expected points per game to show the foundation he sits on even with scoring regression.
The Colts are 31st in points allowed per game to opposing WR1 (21.6), allowing 6.3 receptions (24th) for 93.5 yards (29th) per game to those wideouts to go along with six touchdowns (31st).
T.Y. Hilton: Hilton came off injured reserve to lead the Colts in receiving last week, catching all four of his targets (22.2%) for 80 yards. Hilton ran a route on 69.6% of the pass routes while he was targeted on 25% of his routes run. The 49ers have faced 20.0 targets per game to opposing wideouts (13th), ranking 10th in yards allowed per target (7.9 yards), 12th in catch rate (63.0%) on those targets, but they have allowed a 6.0% touchdown rate to the position (19th). Hilton should be expected to get more run moving on if he checks from his quad issue, but he did run hot on his opportunities in his debut as the WR32 in scoring. He is a WR4/FLEX.
Michael Pittman: Pittman received just three targets last week, which was a season-low, while his 16.7% target share was his lowest in a game since Week 1. Pittman still ran a route on 95.7% of the team dropbacks, so he is still the best bet between the Colts wideouts despite the low-target game. That said, Hilton’s addition to the lineup does add another viable target to the team when Pittman received 25.1% of the team targets through five weeks. That knocks Pittman down a bit until we see how things settle in, but Pittman’s high usage per team dropback keeps him in play as a WR3 in lineups.
Zack Pascal: Pascal also ran more routes than Hilton (82.6%) but we have already established that he is a touchdown or bust fantasy option. Pascal leads the teams with five end zone targets if touchdown hunting in single-game DFS.
Brandon Aiyuk: It will be interesting to see where Aiyuk comes out exiting the bye since his playing time was all over the place over the opening five weeks of the year. Prior to the bye, Aiyuk played 71% of the snaps and ran a route on 77.1% of the team dropbacks, his second-highest rates in a game for the year behind Week 3 against Green Bay. Without George Kittle available, Aiyuk is needed in this passing game outside of Samuel, but with just eight receptions for 90 yards on the season, we cannot trust Aiyuk in seasonal lineups until we see him out of the doghouse and is best left for single-game DFS lineups.
Tight End
Mo Alie-Cox: Alie-Cox is coming off a season-high 16.7% target share last week, but since the Colts only threw 20 times, he still only had three targets. He turned one into a 28-yard touchdown, giving him three touchdowns over the past three games. Alie-Cox still has not had more than three catches in a game yet this season or run more than 18 pass routes in a game, leaving him as a touchdown-dependent dart throw at the position.
Ross Dwelley: Dwelly played 91% of the snaps in Week 6 with Kittle inactive, catching his two targets for 25 yards. Over the past three seasons. Kittle has missed 11 combined games in which Dwelley registered just one top-12 scoring game (and it came with two touchdowns). He is another tight end best left for showdown slates while the Colts have allowed an 8.7% touchdown rate on opposing tight end targets (25th).
More Week 7 Fantasy breakdowns from The Worksheet:
DEN at CLE | CIN at BAL | ATL at MIA | KC at TEN | CAR at NYG | NYJ at NE | WFT at GB | PHI at LVR | DET at LAR | CHI at TB | HOU at ARI | IND at SF | NO at SEA