The Worksheet, a fantasy football overview by Rich Hribar, breaking down everything you need to know for the Week 11 Indianapolis Colts at Buffalo Bills Sunday afternoon game.
| Indianapolis | Rank | @ | Buffalo | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Spread | -7 | ||
| 21.3 | Implied Total | 28.3 | ||
| 26.8 | 8 | Points/Gm | 31.1 | 2 |
| 23 | 13 | Points All./Gm | 15 | 1 |
| 62.6 | 18 | Plays/Gm | 67.1 | 5 |
| 62.9 | 16 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 59.8 | 2 |
| 5.8 | 12 | Off. Yards/Play | 6 | 6 |
| 5.8 | 24 | Def. Yards/Play | 4.6 | 1 |
| 42.97% | 12 | Rush% | 39.74% | 19 |
| 57.03% | 21 | Pass% | 60.26% | 14 |
| 41.81% | 19 | Opp. Rush % | 37.36% | 5 |
| 58.19% | 14 | Opp. Pass % | 62.64% | 28 |
- Buffalo has the largest point differential in the league at +145. The only team in the NFL with more than 100 points scored than allowed.
- Buffalo is averaging 127.0 more yards from scrimmage than their opponent, the largest differential in the league. The next closest team (Dallas) is at 79.9.
- The Bills have allowed the fewest passing touchdowns in the league (six) while the Colts have allowed the most (23).
- The Bills are averaging a league-high 4.8 sacks plus turnovers forced per game defensively.
- Josh Allen is averaging 9.3 yards per pass attempt on first down as opposed to 6.6 Y/A on all other downs. That 2.7 Y/A differential is the largest among all quarterbacks.
- Jonathan Taylor leads the league in red zone opportunities with 52. The next closest player has 39.
Trust = spike production for that player
Quarterback
Josh Allen (TRUST): Coming off his lowest scoring week since 2019 in Week 9, Allen bounced back in a big way last week against the Jets, completing 21-of-28 passes for 366 yards and a pair of scores through the air. After a two-week dip in depth of target and 5.8 yards per pass attempt, Allen posted a season-high 13.1 Y/A and a league-high depth of target of 13.4 yards downfield.
The Colts have been a pass defense we have been targeted all season, ranking 22nd in completion rate (67.1%), 23rd in yards allowed per pass attempt (7.7 Y/A) and a league-high 6.7% touchdown rate to opposing passers on their way to allowing 18.3 passing points per game (31st).
Carson Wentz: Wentz had been a steady fantasy performer heading into last week, posting at least 17.0 fantasy points in eight of his first nine games. But he came up short on Sunday, passing for 180 yards and failing to throw a touchdown passe after throwing two or more touchdowns in each of the previous six games. One underlying red flag for Wentz is that he now has thrown for fewer than 6.0 yards per pass attempt in three of his past four games.
Wentz runs into a tough draw looking to bounce back for fantasy. Buffalo is sitting first in completion rate (57.9%), yards per pass attempt (5.7 Y/A), and touchdown rate (1.9%) allowed to opposing passers. Wentz falls back into 2QB territory in Week 11 and if you have been streaming in 1QB leagues, I would be looking in another direction.
Running Back
Jonathan Taylor: Taylor continued to stay hot last week, turning 27 touches into 126 yards and a touchdown, his seventh straight game reaching the end zone. Taylor was grounded in the second half for eight yards on 10 touches, but his damage was already done at the break on breakaway runs. Taylor leads all backs in yardage gained on carries of 10-plus yards with 540 of his rushing yards coming on those carries, 100 more yards than the next closest back.
Taylor also continues to get more and more work. He played a season-high 84% of the snaps (previous high was 74%) and he had a season-high eight targets.
Taylor will test his hot streak against a Buffalo defense allowing 3.7 YPC to backs (fourth) and they only face 21.9 touches per game to opposing backfields (second-fewest) since they have led for a league-high 74.7% of their snaps in the second halves of games.
The latter is more of the focal point since the Bills have not faced much of a rogue’s gallery of runners to date. When they faced Derrick Henry in Week 6, they allowed 143 yards and three scores on 20 carries to the Big Dog. 76 of the yards came on a breakaway touchdown run, which is how Taylor has lived to date as well. Taylor has the best red zone usage in the league and his extended snap count allows for him to survive negative game script as an RB1, even if he has to grind out yardage setting up the big gain.
Bills RBs: The Bills actually had a shred of offensive balance last week, with their backfield combining to rush 17 times for 98 yards. It was the most rushing yardage they received from their running backs in a game since Week 4 after combining for 182 yards on 54 carries the previous four games. They also added three rushing touchdowns, with all of Zack Moss, Devin Singletary, and Matt Breida reaching the end zone on the ground, with Breida adding a second score through the air.
Buffalo dusted off Breida after he had not played a snap since Week 2 or touched the ball since Week 1. Breida only played eight offensive snaps Sunday despite his six touches for 50 yards and two touchdowns, but it will be something to monitor moving forward if he adds his hat to the ring here in a backfield that is not used a lot to begin with. With Moss in concussion protocol all week, it could easily be a one-off as well.
Moss still led all of the backs in snaps (28) with Singletary behind him with 22 snaps on offense. 33.9% of Moss’s fantasy points are directly from touchdowns, which trails only James Conner among all backs in the top-50 in scoring on the season. Moss is a touchdown-dependent FLEX while we stick a pin in the other options here against a Colts defense that is allowing just 9.8 rushing points per game (fourth) to opposing backfields.
Wide Receiver
Stefon Diggs (TRUST): We have been waiting for Diggs to drop a game like he did last week, snagging 8-of-13 targets for 162 yards and a touchdown against the Jets. Diggs had a season-high 46.4% of the team targets, his first time over 25% in a game since Week 4. Although the spike weeks have been fleeting for Diggs this year, he still has five or more catches in seven of nine games and has now found the end zone in three of the past four weeks.
This week, he draws a Colts defense that has been blasted by opposing wideouts and lead options. The Colts are allowing a league-high 21.5 points per game to opposing WR1 options, ranking 30th in receptions (6.4) and 31st in yardage (93.5 yards) allowed per game to those wideouts to go along with a league-high 10 touchdowns.
Michael Pittman: Pittman saw just 15.1% of the team targets last week, his lowest total in a game since Week 1. Even with the reduced share of looks, Pittman caught all five of them for 71 yards, giving him five or more catches in seven of his past nine games played. One thing to keep an eye on is that Pittman does have six or fewer targets in four of his past five games and two of his three lowest target shares of the season have come in games where T.Y. Hilton was active.
Pittman also runs into a tough draw this weekend. The Bills have allowed just three WR2 or better scoring weeks this season and a high-scoring week of WR18 on the year to an opposing wideout. Mecole Hardman actually has the most PPR points (16.6 points) against them this season while opposing wideouts have caught just three touchdowns. Pittman did have 5-90-0 on 10 targets in the playoffs last year against Buffalo to provide something to latch onto, but this is a week where I am handling him on the WR2/WR3 line.
Emmanuel Sanders: With Diggs bogarting all of the looks, no other Bills pass catcher was relevant on Sunday. Sanders reeled in both of his targets for 27 yards last week, giving him six catches for 92 yards over the past three games. Sanders was just targeted eight times the week prior, so there is no major concern, but in the seven games now in which Sanders has failed to reach the end zone, he is averaging 8.7 PPR points with one week higher than WR32 and four as a WR4 or lower.
The Colts have allowed a league-high 15 touchdowns to opposing wideouts to chase another score with Sanders as a boom-or-bust WR3.
Cole Beasley: After 24 targets the previous two games, Beasley also saw just two targets come in his direction on Sunday, catching both for 15 yards. Beasley has now been a WR3 or better in just two of the seven games Dawson Knox has played, but overall, Beasley ha snow posted 33 yards or fewer in four of his past six games played and has just one touchdown on the season. We know what we have here as a volatile FLEX option that can only be used in PPR formats.
Tight End
Dawson Knox: Knox returned to the lineup last week to play 84% of the snaps and run a route on 74.2% of the team dropbacks, which is right in line with his usage prior to fracturing his hand in Week 6. For Knox, it all comes down to him finding the end zone or not. He has hit 50 yards receiving in just one game and has been the TE21, TE23, and TE35 in his games without a touchdown grab.
There are worse things to do at tight end than to chase a score attached to this offense while the Colts have allowed a 7.7% touchdown rate on target to opposing tight ends (26th), leaving Knox as a touchdown-dependent fringe TE1 play.
More Week 11 Fantasy breakdowns from The Worksheet:
NE at ATL| GB at MIN | BAL at CHI | WFT at CAR | IND at BUF | DET at CLE | SF at JAX | HOU at TEN | MIA at NYJ | NO at PHI | CIN at LVR | ARI at SEA | DAL at KC | PIT at LAC | NYG at TB