The Worksheet, a fantasy football overview by Rich Hribar, breaking down everything you need to know for the Week 16 Indianapolis Colts at Arizona Cardinals Christmas night game.
| Indianapolis | Rank | @ | Arizona | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Spread | -1 | ||
| 24.3 | Implied Total | 25.3 | ||
| 28.4 | 3 | Points/Gm | 27 | 8 |
| 21.4 | 9 | Points All./Gm | 20.3 | 5 |
| 63 | 15 | Plays/Gm | 65.6 | 7 |
| 61.5 | 10 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 60.8 | 5 |
| 5.7 | 11 | Off. Yards/Play | 5.7 | 10 |
| 5.6 | 22 | Def. Yards/Play | 5.3 | 11 |
| 47.85% | 2 | Rush% | 45.21% | 9 |
| 52.15% | 31 | Pass% | 54.79% | 24 |
| 39.61% | 10 | Opp. Rush % | 40.66% | 14 |
| 60.39% | 23 | Opp. Pass % | 59.34% | 19 |
- The Colts have outscored their opponents by 90 points in the first half this season, the largest differential in the league.
- The Colts have led by double digits with the ball in 11 games this season, the most in the league.
- The Colts have led for 54.9% of their offensive snaps, the highest rate in the league.
- The Cardinals have trailed for 85.8% (127 snaps) of their offensive snaps the past two weeks after 25.6% (197 snaps) prior.
- 77.8% (28-of-36) of the touchdowns allowed by the Colts have been through the air, the highest rate in the league.
- Kyler Murray has completed 56.7% (38-of-67) of his passes 15 yards or further from the line of scrimmage, the highest rate in the league.
- 15.8% of the carries against the Cardinals have gained 10 or more yards, the highest rate in the league.
- Jonathan Taylor leads the league in carries (42) and yardage (844) gained on carries of 10 or more yards.
Trust = spike production for that player
Quarterback
Kyler Murray: Murray turned in arguably his worst performance of the season on Sunday. Against the Lions, Murray had season lows with a 56.1% completion rate and 6.3 yards per pass attempt. To compound matters for fantasy, Murray also rushed for just three yards. Murray has now been a QB1 in fantasy in just one of his past four games after getting there in five of his first seven starts.
Murray will look to bounce back against a Colts team that has played much better defensively as the season has gone on. After allowing 8.0 yards per pass attempt over their first nine games this season, the Colts have allowed 5.6 Y/A over their past five games, which includes games against Tom Brady and Josh Allen. 80.5% of the points the Colts do allow does come through the air, however, which is 28th in the league. If the Cardinals are going to move the football here, it will be through the air.
Not many quarterbacks have the upside of Murray when things are all coming together despite his recent volatility, which makes him a boom-or-bust QB1.
