As part of the Sharp Football Draft Kit, Raymond Summerlin is posting a fantasy football preview for all 32 NFL teams.
This preview includes advanced stats, the fantasy football outlook for Anthony Richardson, Jonathan Taylor, Michael Pittman, Alec Pierce, Josh Downs, and every other notable Colt, and in-depth analysis of the coaching staff, passing game, and rushing attack.
Find a link to every team preview in our Draft Kit Hub.
Highlights:
- Among all 15 2023 Combine invites, Anthony Richardson was 14th in pressured on-target rate, 15th without pressure, 15th inside of the pocket, and 13th outside of the pocket.
- With a career-low 7.0 air yards per target, Michael Pittman averaged just 6.6 receiving yards per target (74th among qualifying receivers) and 1.44 yards per route run (49th) last season.
- Jonathan Taylor will miss at least the first four games of the season after landing on the PUP list.
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2022 Colts Stats (NFL Rank):
- Points: 289 (30th)
- Total Offense: 5,298 (27th)
- Plays: 1,103 (10th)
- Offensive TDs: 25 (32nd)
- Points Per Drive: 1.39 (32nd)
- EPA+ Per Play: -15.3 (31st)
- Situation Neutral Pace: 30.9 seconds (14th)
2023 Colts Coaching Staff:
- Head Coach: Shane Steichen
- Offensive Coordinator: Jim Bob Cooter
Frank Reich arguably got a raw deal given the quarterback turnover during his tenure, especially since that turnover led to Carson Wentz at quarterback in 2021 and the diminished reflection of Matt Ryan quarterbacking the team for most of 2022.
Still, it was not terribly surprising when the Colts decided to move on from Reich after nine games. It was more surprising they plucked Jeff Saturday off a studio show to lead the team the rest of the way, but the season was already lost by then.
The Colts appeared dangerously close to bringing back Saturday at one point in January, but they landed on former Eagles OC Shane Steichen as head coach.
Steichen identified former Lions OC and best name in the business Jim Bob Cooter as his offensive coordinator, although the head coach is still expected to call plays
Game script and Jalen Hurts scrambles made the Eagles look more run-heavy than they were last season – they were sixth in neutral pass rate – but they were a genuinely run-heavy attack after Steichen took over the play calling duties in 2021.
Steichen’s 2020 Chargers passed a lot, finishing fifth in attempts, but they were actually under their expected pass rate by nearly two percentage points.
On the other hand, the Lions were a pass-heavy team with Cooter as coordinator, finishing with a three percent pass rate over expected during his four years in charge.
Given the Colts have Anthony Richardson at quarterback, I would lean more toward Steichen’s Philly history when trying to figure out how he will call plays this season, but the uncertainty at running back and questions on the offensive line could complicate that.
That does not mean the 2023 Colts will be the 2022 Falcons.
I expect a high-paced offense that runs when it makes sense and tailors the passing game to the strengths of Richardson. In short, I expect this offense to get a lot better in 2023.
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2022 Colts Passing Stats:
- Dropbacks: 685 (7th)
- Neutral Pass Rate: 50% (20th)
- Pass Rate Over Expected: -3.7% (21st)
- Pressure Rate Allowed: 24.2% (25th)
- ESPN Pass Block Win Rate: 49% (31st)
2023 Colts Passing Game Preview:
The Colts will face the third-easiest passing schedule based on 2022 efficiency numbers.
- QB: Anthony Richardson, Gardner Minshew
- WR: Michael Pittman
- WR: Alec Pierce
- WR: Josh Downs, Isaiah McKenzie
- TE: Jelani Woods, Kylen Granson
The No. 4 overall pick, it would have been a surprise if Anthony Richardson did not open the season as the starter, and he was quickly named the No. 1 during camp.
His transition will be interesting to watch.
The upside argument is clear. At 6-foot-4, 244 pounds, Richardson ran a 4.43 40 with a 40.5-inch vertical and 11-foot-9 broad jump at the Combine.
His blend of size and athletic ability is nearly unmatched among quarterbacks.
Unfortunately, his passing production in college was lackluster.
“In terms of all Combine invites since 2000, here are Richardson’s career core passing metrics:
- 7.9 yards per pass attempt (50th percentile)
- 1.6 TD:INT ratio (13th percentile)
- 54.7% completion rate (third percentile)
Among all 15 2023 Combine invites, Richardson was:
- 14th in on-target rate under pressure (52.5%)
- 15th in on-target rate without pressure (70.3%)
- 15th in on-target rate inside of the pocket (67.6%)
- 13th in on-target rate outside of the pocket (55.6%)”
He has a long way to go as a passer. Luckily for our purposes, that might not matter as much for fantasy.
As Justin Fields proved last season, an elite rushing quarterback can be an elite fantasy option without even average passing numbers.
Richardson might not hit those rushing heights, but a likely bad offensive line should lead to scrambles, and he showed the ability to avoid sacks in college.
His running ability should provide a floor, and he has the upside for more if the passing production surprises in his rookie season.
Richardson’s questions as a passer could affect his receiving corps, however.
Michael Pittman is coming off a disappointing season.
With a career-low 7.0 air yards per target, he averaged just 6.6 receiving yards per target (74th among qualifying receivers) and 1.44 yards per route run (49th).
Despite finishing 14th in targets per game, Pittman was the WR28 in per-game scoring.
Out of 85 receivers with at least 50 targets, Pittman was 73rd in receiving fantasy points per target (1.16).
He was much better on a per-target basis in 2021, however, and it is easy to blame his usage last season for the poor performance.
The concerns this year are how quickly Richardson can develop as a passer, and how many targets will be available for Pittman even as the very likely WR1.
If Richardson surprises and the Colts pass a little more than expected, Pittman will be a value as the WR39 over at Underdog, but he is certainly a player who could look good in the season-end rankings without really making a difference week to week.
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Alec Pierce had a rough rookie season, catching just 52.6% of his targets on his way to a 41/593/2 receiving line.
It is concerning Pierce earned a target on just 16.4% of his routes, but his usage (11.72 air yards per target) did not mesh well with Matt Ryan.
That should change with Richardson, who has a big arm and pushed the ball down the field in college.
Pittman will likely lead this team in targets, but Pierce could develop into a spike week fantasy play.
Rookie Josh Downs and Isaiah McKenzie are competing for the No. 3 receiver job with Downs emerging as the front-runner after starting the final preseason game.
At 5-foot-9, 171 pounds, Downs is a classic slot receiver who ran 82.5% of his snaps from inside last season.
He profiles as a player who will rely on volume for fantasy points, and that could be tough to come by in this offense with Pittman ahead of him.
The Eagles also used multiple tight ends on 27.2% of their snaps last season under Steichen, and the Colts should have plenty of tight ends to play. That likely would cut into Downs’ snaps.
The tight end situation is a mess, and it is possible the Colts keep five on the initial 53-man roster.
Jelani Woods looked like the best fantasy option heading into training camp, but he has missed a large chunk of the practices due to a hamstring injury and did not play in the preseason.
Woods was listed behind Kylen Granson on the Colts’ unofficial depth chart before the second preseason game.
Indy also has Mo Alie-Cox, Drew Ogletree, and rookie Will Mallory on the initial roster.
Woods and Granson are the most likely of that group to emerge as pass catchers, but picking any of them feels like throwing darts.
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2022 Colts Rushing Stats:
- Rushing Attempts – Scrambles: 417 (17th)
- Yards Before Contact Per Attempt: 2.6 (21st)
- Football Outsiders’ Adjusted Line Yards: 4.32 (22nd)
- ESPN’s Run Block Win Rate: 71% (16th)
2023 Colts Running Game Preview:
The Colts will face the 11th-toughest rushing schedule based on 2022 efficiency numbers.
- RB: Zack Moss, Evan Hull, Deon Jackson, Jonathan Taylor (PUP)
- OL: Bernhard Raimann, Quenton Nelson, Ryan Kelly, Will Fries, Braden Smith
The contract dispute between the Colts and Jonathan Taylor ended about as poorly as it could have for fantasy gamers who have the running back on their team.
Taylor did not solve his differences with the Colts and also did not get traded to a new franchise. Instead, he will open the season on the PUP list, forcing him to miss at least the first four games.
The “at least” is important in that sentence.
While the relationship between the Colts and Taylor appears to be nearly unrepairable, Indy also has made it clear they do not plan to trade the running back for less than they believe he is worth, which could lead to an extended standoff.
Any team that trades for Taylor will both have to meet the Colts' asking price and give Taylor a new deal at the top of the market, making it unlikely anything gets done unless Indy brings the price down.
That is especially true given Taylor is coming off a down season (career lows in yards per carry (4.5) and EPA per carry (-0.16) despite facing light boxes at the highest rate of his career) and has never been a serious threat in the passing game (his career 1.07 yards per route run and 17.3% target rate per route rate would have ranked 22nd and 28th among backs with at least 150 routes last season).
At this point, it is impossible to know when or for whom Taylor will next play, making it difficult to draft him at all. Four games is an eternity in a 13- or 14-week fantasy regular season, and it is reasonable to assume he will miss more time.
That said, if he does come back to the Colts in Week 5 or ends up with a team that needs a starting running back — the Vikings could be desperate by then — he will once again be in the RB1 conversation.
It makes sense to treat Taylor like Alvin Kamara was being drafted in the early summer. If Taylor falls out of the top 30 backs, his upside is worth a shot.
Remember, drafting is just half the battle. Dominate your leagues all season long with our in-season Fantasy Football premium package. Get access to Rich Hribar's award-winning Worksheet articles covering every matchup, every single week, weekly positional rankings, waiver wire analysis, DFS strategies, subscriber-only chats with Lord Reebs himself, and much more! Use promo code FANTASY40 for $40 off. Click here to learn more. Weekly and monthly packages are also available!
As for the rest of the backfield, figuring things out would be much easier if Zack Moss was healthy.
Moss was quietly Indy's most efficient back last season, rushing for 4.8 yards per carry on his way to 365 yards and a touchdown. He popped a run of 10 or more yards on 11.8% of his carries, which ranked 21st among all qualifying backs.
The issues are he currently is recovering from a broken arm, and he does not have a strong track record as a receiver. He was targeted on just five of his 55 routes after joining the Colts last season.
Touchdowns are also a concern given what projects to be a lackluster offense and the possibility of Anthony Richardson stealing goal-line opportunities.
If Moss is the starter, he could look a lot like Brian Robinson did for the Commanders last season: A low-ceiling RB3 despite a good touch total.
Deon Jackson might be the favorite to start Week 1 after starting the final preseason contest, and he had a couple of big fantasy games last season thanks in large part to his production as a receiver.
Jackson has rushed for 3.3 yards per carry thus far in his career, however, with just 8.6% of his career carries going for 10 or more yards and 18.5% of those going for zero or negative yards.
His role is unclear, but rookie Evan Hull is the most interesting of this trio thanks to his ability as a pass catcher.
Hull was the target on 17.2% of Northwestern's attempts last season and earned a target on 22.8% of his routes. He finished with 55 catches for 546 yards and 1.9 yards per route run.
Even if Moss or Jackson handle the early down work, Hull could establish himself as the passing-down back, and that could continue even if Taylor returns to the team.
As it stands, I would draft this trio:
- Moss
- Hull
- Jackson
With the understanding that all three are just dart throws that could be rendered useless if Taylor returns or the Colts bring in a veteran runner.