Eagles vs. Commanders Fantasy Football Worksheet, NFC Championship Game

The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Championship Round matchup between the Eagles and Commanders.

Find a breakdown of every Championship Round NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.

Against the Spread:

• Eagles: 12-7
• Commanders: 13-6-1
• Eagles Home: 6-5
• Commanders Away: 5-4-1
• Eagles as Favorite: 9-6
• Commanders as Underdog: 5-2-1

Game Overview

This will be the rubber match between these division rivals.

Philadelphia defeated Washington 26-18 at home back in Week 11.

Washington had its revenge in the rematch in Week 16 at home, winning 36-33.

The first game was tight through three quarters.

Washington led 10-6 in the final quarter before Philadelphia ran off the following 20 points.

The Commanders got a cosmetic touchdown and two-point conversion with 28 seconds left in the game.

In the rematch, Washington completed a furious comeback.

They trailed 21-7 at the end of the first quarter and 27-14 heading into the final quarter. But then the Commanders outscored the Eagles 22-6 in the fourth quarter, scoring the go-ahead touchdown with just six seconds remaining.

Washington is playing in its first Conference Championship game since 1991, snapping the second-longest drought for a team playing to go to the Super Bowl.

Washington leads the NFL in points per drive on the road this season (2.96).

In the postseason, they have scored 3.21 points per possession, the best among the playoff teams.

The Commanders have sustained an aggressive nature in the postseason, something underdogs must do.

Washington has gone for a league-high 9 fourth downs in these playoffs, converting 6.

The Commanders have converted a league-best 81.3% (26-of-32) of fourth downs on the season.

They have 65.8 expected points added on fourth downs now on the season, the most in the league.

If you are going to pull off upsets, you also have to play clean football with minimal negative plays.

This postseason, the Washington offense has zero turnovers and only one sack.

Everything we have covered stems from Jayden Daniels.

Daniels will be the eighth rookie quarterback to start in the Conference Championship in the Super Bowl era and the sixth since 2000.

He will look to become the first rookie quarterback to make it to the Super Bowl.

All seven previous quarterbacks were attached to defenses that ranked in the top five in points allowed on the season.

Washington is 18th.

The Washington defense allowed 6.5 yards per play in the Wild Card Round (the most of any team) and 7.7 yards per play in the Divisional Round (the most of any team).

But they have scored a league-high 28 points off turnovers in this postseason after scoring 65 points off turnovers (15th) in the regular season.

Washington has 9 sacks plus takeaways this postseason after averaging 3.5 per game in the regular season (19th).

Winning on those negative play margins and offensive efficiency is where Washington will have to sustain against a Philadelphia team with the best defense in the league attached to a front-end rushing offense.

The Eagles are +17 in turnover margin (2nd), 2nd in points off turnovers (117), and 4th in points allowed off turnovers (40) on the season.

They are the only defense in the league allowing fewer than 5.0 yards per play.

The Eagles have allowed a league-low 1.60 points per drive.

They have allowed 1.36 points per drive this postseason.

Philadelphia has closed the door on opponents near the end zone.

After allowing a 50% touchdown rate on red zone possessions in the regular season (5th), the Eagles have allowed a touchdown on 3-of-8 red zone possessions (37.5%) in the postseason.

When these teams played in the regular season, the Eagles had 4 sacks plus takeaways in the first matchup, while Washington had 2.

Washington was able to pull off a comeback in the rematch despite 5 turnovers and 1 sack. Philadelphia had 2 turnovers and 3 sacks in that game, which Jalen Hurts exited early.

The Eagles have also rushed for 169 and 285 yards in these two playoff games.

Philadelphia rushed for 179.3 yards per game in the regular season, second in the league behind Baltimore.

The Eagles ran for 228 and 211 yards in the two matchups between these teams.

This game also features two teams that do not huddle often compared to the rest of the league.

Washington led the NFL in plays using no-huddle this season (760), a massive gap over the team that was second in the league.

The Eagles were second (309).

Washington ran no-huddle on 62% of their snaps in their two matchups versus the Eagles, but there was no discernable advantage.

Washington averaged the same 5.0 yards per play with and without huddling in those games.

There was some narrative last week that the Rams exposed a weakness with the Eagles' inability to make substitutions on their defensive line.

Still, the Eagles allowed 5.9 yards per play against the Rams when they huddled on Sunday compared to 4.9 yards per play in no-huddle situations.

The Eagles have allowed 4.9 yards per play in no-huddle situations, which is third in the league.

But when these teams met in the regular season, the Eagles averaged 8.2 yards per no-huddle snap (36 plays) against Washington compared to 4.6 yards per play when they huddled.

This was consistent with their splits for the entire season.

The Eagles have averaged 5.1 yards per play when huddling (21st), compared to 6.9 yards per play on no-huddle snaps (again, on the second-largest sample of no-huddle plays), third in the NFL.

On Sunday against the Rams, the Eagles ran 19 no-huddle snaps for 9.3 yards per play compared to 4.1 yards on their 42 snaps when huddling, the fewest rate of any team in the Divisional Round.

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Quarterback

Jayden Daniels: Daniels has been excellent in the postseason, scoring 22.3 and 25.1 fantasy points against the Bucs and Lions.

Excluding Week 18, which he left early, Daniels has scored over 20 fantasy points in seven straight games, averaging 27.9 points per game over that stretch.

He has multiple passing touchdowns in each game, something he has done in each of his past seven complete games played.

Since Week 12, Daniels has had a 7.5% touchdown rate, which is third in the league.

That was 3.4% over his opening 10 games, 24th in the league.

That run includes throwing an early career-high 5 touchdowns when these teams played in Week 16.

Daniels has played extremely clean football this postseason, taking only one sack without a turnover.

His 1.5% sack rate is the best of any quarterback this postseason after an 8.9% rate in the regular season (31st).

Daniels threw for 9.6 yards per pass attempt on Saturday in Detroit, his second-highest rate in a game this season.

He was a mixed bag against the Eagles in the regular season.

Daniels scored 13.4 points when these teams linked up in Week 11 but came back with 34.4 points in the rematch.

Daniels only threw for 6.0 Y/A and 6.6 Y/A in his two games against the Eagles this season, who have allowed a league-low 6.1 Y/A this season.

The Eagles have had early-game success against Daniels.

Through three quarters in those matchups, Daniels has completed 56.8% of his passes for 6.0 Y/A with 2 touchdowns and an interception.

In the fourth quarter of those matchups, Daniels has completed 73.5% of his passes for 6.7 Y/A with 4 touchdowns and 2 interceptions.

Daniels has been at his best closing out games and in tough spots, elevating the offense and play-calling.

He is third in the NFL in rating in the fourth quarter (113.7), completing 71.1% of his passes (4th) for 8.1 Y/A (6th) and an 8.1% touchdown rate (4th).

41.6% of his throws in the fourth quarter have resulted in a first down or a touchdown, fourth in the league.

Even if you slow down Daniels from a passing efficiency stance, you have to contend with his rushing ability.

He is running more to close the season.

Daniels has at least 9 rushing attempts in six straight games he has finished.

He has rushed 13 (36 yards) and 16 times (51 yards) to open the playoffs.

Daniels has scrambled on 13% of his dropbacks in the postseason after leading the league with a 12.5% scramble rate in the regular season.

The Eagles contained Daniels in the first matchup (18 yards on 7 runs) but then allowed 81 yards on 9 runs when they played in the rematch.

As strong as Philadelphia has been overall defensively based on several metrics and winning games, they have allowed fantasy points to close the season.

Over their past seven games, Daniels scored 34.4 points against them in Week 16 to go along with Matthew Stafford (19.2 and 19.5 fantasy points) and Lamar Jackson (25.4 points) getting there from a fantasy stance.

Jalen Hurts: Hurts was up-and-down on Sunday but ended with a good fantasy line (18.1 points).

He opened the game with a 44-yard touchdown run, the longest of his career.

That anchored 70 yards rushing in the game.

Hurts turned in a high completion rate as a passer, connecting on 15-of-20 passes (75%), but only posted 128 yards (6.4 Y/A) without a touchdown.

This was the second week the Philadelphia passing game was largely nondescript.

The game on Sunday was impacted by weather (and A.J. Brown dropped a long gain), but Hurts has now thrown for fewer than 200 yards in four of his past five games.

Hurts has only thrown one interception since Week 4, but there were a handful of negative plays again via sacks.

Hurts was sacked 7 times.

His 25.9% sack rate was the highest for a quarterback in a game this season.

Inviting pressure has been a problem for Hurts this season.

Hurts has been pressured on a league-high 41.1% of his dropbacks.

Pro Football Focus has credited Hurts with 19.7% of his pressures, the eighth-highest among quarterbacks this season.

No quarterback has a longer time to throw after the snap than Hurts this season (3.07 seconds).

These are relative points for this matchup.

First, the pressure related part.

When Hurts has not been pressured, he has completed a league-high 79.6% of his passes for 9.2 Y/A (4th).

He drops to a 44.9% completion rate (24th) and 5.0 Y/A when pressured (30th).

Hurts exited the second game between these teams with an early concussion.

But when Washington pressured him on their sample this season, Hurts was 2-of-8 (25%) for 3.4 Y/A.

When Washington failed to pressure Hurts, he connected on 17-of-24 (70.8%) passes for 205 yards (8.5 Y/A).

Washington has been far more vulnerable against the quick passing game.

On throws within 2.5 seconds of the snap, Washington has allowed 7.0 Y/A (25th) and a 7.8% touchdown rate (dead last).

Jared Goff was 17-of-22 (77.3%) for 184 yards (8.4 Y/A) and 2 touchdowns (zero interceptions) on those quick throws Saturday against Washington.

On throws where quarterbacks hold the ball longer than 2.5 seconds, Washington has allowed 7.6 Y/A (9th) and a 1.6% touchdown rate (the lowest in the league).

Goff completed only 57.1% of his passes for 7.6 Y/A with 1 touchdown and 4 interceptions when holding the ball longer on Saturday.

The other thing up in the air is the knee injury that Hurts suffered at the end of Sunday’s game.

If his mobility is compromised, that impacts a huge component of this offense.

If Hurts has limited mobility, you hope that pushes Philadelphia to that quicker passing game we highlighted as their cleanest path for passing success. However, that also limits the potential designed runs and RPO action from this offense, which they stem so much from.

Hurts scored 18.7 points in his first matchup, but 9.9 of those stemmed from rushing.

The Eagles only had a 39.3% dropback rate in the second half of that game, and the offense lost some added volume due to Saquon Barkley posting two long touchdowns on the ground.

I expect Philadelphia to run the ball well again here, which could reduce play volume.

There is a low bar for Hurts to be better than his Week 11 matchup with Washington.

We still have the Pittsburgh game as a ceiling spot to showcase this passing game's upside, but those examples are fleeting this season.

He and this passing game need to calibrate a quicker passing game to attack Washington at their weakest point while preventing Hurts from inviting pressures.

Running Back

Saquon Barkley: Barkley was incredible on Sunday, rushing 26 times for 205 yards.

He had touchdown runs of 62 and 78 yards.

Those were fifth and sixth touchdown runs of 50 or more yards for Barkley this season.

No other player has more than two.

That is the most touchdown runs of 50 or more yards in an NFL season in the 2000s.

He has 9 touchdowns from outside of the red zone on the season.

No other player has more than 4.

Barkley has the most touchdown runs of 20 or more yards in an NFL season in the 2000s.

Barkley is 148 rushing yards short of the most rushing yards ever over the regular and postseason combined.

He will have a realistic shot to get there against this Washington run defense.

In the two games against Washington this season, Barkley rushed for 146 yards and 150 yards.

He had touchdown runs of 23, 39, and 68 yards in those games (and another 2-yard score).

Barkley leads all running backs with 2.55 yards before contact per rush.

Washington has allowed a league-high 2.08 yards before contact per running back run.

The Commanders have a 57.8% success rate against running back runs this season (28th) while allowing a touchdown on 24.9% of those runs (26th).

They allowed a run of 10 or more yards on 13.8% of those runs, 31st in the league.

In their two playoff games, Washington has a 51.3% success rate against running back runs, allowing 5.4 yards per carry and 2.62 yards before contact per rush.

They have allowed a run of 10 or more yards on 20.5% of those runs.

If backing Washington and looking for a glimmer of hope here in slowing down Barkley, he rushed 7 times for 109 yards and 2 touchdowns in the first quarter of the last matchup.

He then rushed 22 times for 41 yards the rest of the way.

Washington sold out to stop Barkley, which they could do after Jalen Hurts exited that game.

Barkley had 8 or more defenders in the box on 59.1% of his runs after the first quarter.

On those runs, he ran 13 times for 18 yards.

If Hurts cannot run due to his knee injury or is limited, then Washington can devote extra defenders to slow down Barkley. Still, extra defenders in the box also leave the potential for allowing a big gain if runners can get to the second level.

Washington RBs: Washington got its backfield going on Saturday in Detroit after struggling to run the ball to end the regular season and in the opening round of the playoffs.

Brian Robinson rushed 15 times for 77 yards and 2 touchdowns.

He had rushed for 2 touchdowns over his previous 9 games.

He rushed for more than 77 yards in just three games this season.

Austin Ekeler rushed 6 times for 47 yards, adding 4 receptions for 41 yards.

Jeremy McNichols added 8 yards and a touchdown on his 4 runs.

Getting the backfield going on the ground was a significant issue for Washington in the two games against the Eagles in the regular season.

In Week 11, their backs rushed 21 times for 75 yards (3.6 YPC) and a touchdown, with only 0.62 yards before contact per rush.

In Week 16, Washington backs rushed 15 times for 32 yards (2.1 YPC) with 0.0 yards before contact per rush.

It is generally hard to run on the Eagles, and Washington will be without guard Sam Cosmi on the interior.

They have a 64.3% success rate against running back runs (8th) while allowing 4.2 YPC to backs(9th).

Washington did not have Ekeler available for the second game.

He was active as a pass catcher in the first matchup, catching 8-of-9 targets for 89 yards.

Wide Receiver

A.J. Brown: Brown only pulled in 2-of-7 targets for 14 yards on Sunday.

He did have a drop on a downfield target, but Brown has now been limited to 60 receiving yards on 6 receptions over the past three games.

The silver lining from Sunday is that Brown again commanded a high rate of opportunities when Philadelphia did throw.

He accounted for 35% of the team targets.

This season, we have a 126-play sample with Brown, DeVonta Smith, and Dallas Goedert on the field.

Brown leads the team with 32.6% of the targets, 49.8% of the air yards, and 2.08 yards per route run on those snaps.

For Brown, it all comes down to how much the Eagles are throwing.

He has double-digit targets in three games this season, forcing him to live on efficiency.

Brown had games of 5-65-0 (8 targets) and 8-97-1 (15 targets) when these teams played in the regular season.

He received 32% and 60% of the team targets in those outings.

Washington is 24th in points allowed to WR1 targets (16.6 per game).

The Commanders are sixth in the league in man coverage on passing plays (33%).

They went against that tendency against the Lions last week, playing man coverage on 8.9% of passing plays.

In Week 11 against the Eagles, they only played man coverage on 13.3% of passing plays, which was their previous low before Saturday's game.

But in Week 16 against the Eagles, they played man coverage on 53.1% of the passing snaps.

They only had one game with a higher rate during the season (Week 17 against Atlanta).

That split could have much to do with Jalen Hurts' injury in the second matchup.

The rate of man coverage in the third matchup can impact the rate of volume Brown receives this week.

Brown has been targeted on 38.2% of his routes (3.89 yards per route) against man coverage, compared to 21.5% of his routes (2.24 yards per route) against zone coverage.

We have a limited sample of Washington having Marshon Lattimore available and asking him to play heads-up against a front-end receiver, but the two times we have seen it, it has not gone well.

We have seen Mike Evans catch 6 passes for 84 yards and a touchdown on Lattimore in the Wild Card Round.

When these teams played in Week 16, Brown caught 5-of-10 targets for 68 yards and a touchdown (with 2 pass interference calls) against Lattimore in coverage.

With Washington going zone-heavy on Saturday against Detroit, Lattimore was only targeted once on 41 coverage snaps.

Terry McLaurin: McLaurin grabbed 4-of-6 targets for 87 yards and a touchdown on Saturday, punctuated by a 58-yard catch and run on a screen pass for his score.

That was McLaurin’s 15th receiving touchdown on the season.

He has 9 touchdowns over his past eight games, with Daniels getting hot in the touchdown department.

We will need that touchdown output from McLaurin in this matchup.

The Eagles allow 7.5 yards per target (3rd) and 13.5 PPR points per game (7th) to WR1 targets.

McLaurin had games of 1-10-0 (2 targets) and 5-60-1 (6 targets) in the two matchups against the Eagles this season.

He did score on a 32-yard strike in the second matchup, but Washington has struggled to get McLaurin targets in both games.

He has 6.3% and 16.7% of the team targets in those games.

Those account for two of his three lowest target rates this season.

We have highlighted this plenty over the season, but McLaurin does not move around a lot in this offense, which can impact the attention he receives.

McLaurin has run 45 routes against the Eagles at LWR in his two games, drawing only 3 targets on those routes (6.7%).

The Eagles have allowed 7.0 yards per target (4th) and a 2% touchdown rate (3rd) to LWR options this season.

After only running 6 routes in the slot in the first matchup (1 target), Washington did get him 13 routes from the slot in the rematch, where he was targeted 3 times.

Hopefully, Washington can build on that deployment and move McLaurin around even more in the third matchup.

It appears rookie CB Quinyon Mitchell avoided a major injury on Sunday and will be available to play this weekend.

We will follow his status.

In two games against Washington this season, Mitchell has only been targeted in coverage 4 times, allowing 2 catches for 42 yards and that 32-yard touchdown in the second matchup.

DeVonta Smith: Smith caught all four targets on Sunday for 21 yards.

These Philadelphia pass catchers come with inherent volatility based on the lack of consistent passing volume.

On that 126-play sample with Smith on the field simultaneously with Brown and Goedert, Smith has 22.5% of the team targets (3rd behind Brown and Goedert), 26.3% of the air yards, and a target on 15.9% of his routes.

He has 1.26 yards per route on those snaps.

In the two games against Washington this season, Smith had 4-29-0 (6 targets) and 6-51-0 (8 targets).

Smith had 24% and 32% target rates in those games (Goedert did play in the first).

We will always question how much the Eagles will have to throw, but the coverage schemes for Washington can play a role in Smith’s involvement when they pass.

On that same sample with all of the pass catchers available, Smith has been targeted on 17.2% of his routes against zone coverage compared to 12% against man coverage.

If Philadelphia does calibrate their passing game and looks to shorten things up, that can also aid Smith’s usage.

He has played in the slot on 47.2% of his snaps with everyone available in this offense.

On those quick throws (2.5 seconds or less) with Brown and Goedert playing, Smith averages a team-high 2.17 yards per route with 28.8% of the team targets.

Washington allows slot receivers 8.2 yards per target (18th) and a 6.6% touchdown rate (21st).

Washington WRs: Dyami Brown has come on strong this postseason, posting games of 5-89-1 and 6-98-0, setting a new career high for yardage in each game.

Brown had his good game in the Wild Card Round on only 15.6% of the team targets, but he had a career-best 27.6% target share on Saturday against Detroit.

He also ran a route on 75.7% of the dropbacks against Detroit after a 55% rate against Tampa Bay the week before.

Brown caught 4-of-5 targets for 56 yards when these teams played in Week 16, anchored by a 51-yard reception.

After coming on strong to close the regular season, Olamide Zaccheaus has caught just 3-of-5 targets for 19 yards in the playoffs.

He was only on the field for 60% and 45.9% of the team's dropbacks in those games after closing the regular season with a route on 71.1%, 79.6%, and 74.4% of the dropbacks.

This is not as good of a matchup since the Eagles have allowed a league-low 6.8 yards per target to receivers overall.

Through three quarters of the last matchup, this game went similar to the first, when Washington wide receivers combined for four catches and 28 yards overall.

At that point of the game, Brown led the team with 51 yards on 3 catches.

McLaurin had 3 catches for 43 yards.

Zacchaeus had 2 catches for 10 yards.

But Washington got a big game from Zaccheaus (5-70-2) after two touchdowns in the fourth quarter, including a 49-yard catch and run.

Jamison Crowder caught 2 touchdowns in the first matchup but only had 15 yards. You are only chasing that box score.

Crowder has only been on the field for 12.5% and 29.7% of the passing plays in the postseason.

It is tough to expect a similar runout from these wide receivers based on our sample of seven of the eight quarters of football these teams have played, paired with the season-long production for the Washington wideouts and what Philadelphia has allowed to receivers over the season, but Brown has the momentum and big-play upside here.

Brown is also the best bet on the field in 2 WR sets, drawing the most snaps from the group.

Tight End

Dallas Goedert: Goedert collected all four targets he received on Sunday for 56 yards.

Since returning in Week 18, he has games of 55, 47, and 56 yards.

On his plays with Brown and Smith this season, Goedert is second on the team with 24.7% of the targets with 1.38 yards per route.

He gets his third favorable matchup of the postseason.

Goedert only played in the Week 11 matchup, catching all five targets for 61 yards.

Washington has allowed a 74.5% catch rate (22nd), 7.5 yards per target (17th), and an 8.8% touchdown rate (31st) to tight ends.

Zach Ertz: Ertz caught all five targets for 28 yards and a touchdown on Saturday in Detroit.

Ertz has only reached 50 yards in a game once in his past 11 outings, but he has found the end zone seven times in his past nine games.

Ertz had games of 6-47-1 (with a two-point conversion) and 1-12-0 against his former team in the regular season.

With Ertz, I would still bet on needing a touchdown to get over for fantasy, but he has been finding the paint during this hot stretch for Jayden Daniels throwing touchdowns.

The Eagles allowed the Rams tight ends to catch 9-of-12 targets for 63 yards and 2 touchdowns on Sunday.

The sample is still small, with the loss of Nakobe Dean.

Without Dean on the field this season, the Eagles have only allowed 5.7 yards per target to tight ends, but they have allowed those pass catchers to catch 73.3% of their targets for a 6.7% touchdown rate.

With Dean on the field, they had allowed a 66.7% catch rate and a 5.6% touchdown rate to tight ends.

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