The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Week 9 matchup between the Patriots and Commanders.
Find a breakdown of every Week 9 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.
| Washington | Rank | @ | New England | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Spread | -3.0 | ||
| 18.5 | Implied Total | 21.5 | ||
| 21.4 | 17 | Points/Gm | 14.8 | 31 |
| 28.5 | 31 | Points All./Gm | 26.0 | 26 |
| 63.5 | 16 | Plays/Gm | 60.8 | 24 |
| 65.3 | 23 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 65.8 | 24 |
| 5 | 21 | Off. Yards/Play | 4.7 | 26 |
| 5.7 | 29 | Def. Yards/Play | 4.9 | 8 |
| 31.30% | 32 | Rush% | 39.09% | 26 |
| 68.70% | 1 | Pass% | 60.91% | 7 |
| 42.72% | 14 | Opp. Rush % | 44.11% | 19 |
| 57.28% | 19 | Opp. Pass % | 55.89% | 14 |
- Games involving the Commanders are averaging 49.9 combined points, third in the league.
- The Patriots have scored on 24.2% of their drives, ahead of only the Giants (20.2%).
- 42.7% of the drives against Washington have reached the red zone or scored prior, the third-highest rate in the league.
- 20.9% of the New England drives have reached the red zone or scored prior, 31st in the league.
- Washington has allowed a league-high 10 touchdowns from outside of the red zone.
- 40.5% of the New England offensive snaps have been trailing by double-digits, the highest rate in the league.
- The Patriots are 31st in the league in rate of runs to gain 10 or more yards (6.9%).
Trust = spike production for that player
Quarterback
Sam Howell: Just when we thought we were getting out after an egg against the Giants in Week 7, Howell pulled us back in as the QB1 (30.9 points) last week.
Howell has now been a QB1 scorer in four of his past five games.
Howell was only sacked once on Sunday after taking four or more sacks in every game prior to last week.
Washington went with a quicker passing attack on Sunday.
Howell averaged a season-low 2.40 seconds to throw. He threw 25.0% of his passes behind the line of scrimmage while 53.8% of his passes were further than five yards downfield, his lowest rate in a game since Week 2.
Washington has steered into being a pass-heavy team, so calibrating this offense to a quicker passing game can go a long way into insulating Howell’s high sack totals.
Washington threw the ball a season-high 17% over expectation last week. That may have been influenced by the matchup with the Eagles, but they lead the NFL dropback rate on first downs now on the season (67.5%) and are now 11% over pass rate expectations on first downs for the season.
Howell has given us two outright duds this year against the Giants and Bills but has been the QB13 or higher in his other six starts.
The overall spot could be better since Howell is a road underdog with a low team total, but on a week filled with viable options on byes and multiple injuries, Howell is a back-end QB1.
The Patriots are 22nd in passing points allowed per pass attempt (0.408) and 23rd in passing points allowed per game (14.2).
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