The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Week 1 matchup between the Cowboys and Browns.
Find a breakdown of every Week 1 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.
| Dallas | Rank | @ | Cleveland | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | Spread | -2.5 | ||
| 20.5 | Implied Total | 22.5 | ||
| 30.1 | 1 | Points/Gm | 22.8 | 12 |
| 20.2 | 9 | Points All./Gm | 22.6 | 21 |
| 67.3 | 2 | Plays/Gm | 69.8 | 1 |
| 59.3 | 3 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 58.2 | 1 |
| 5.6 | 8 | Off. Yards/Play | 4.8 | 28 |
| 5.2 | 10 | Def. Yards/Play | 4.7 | 4 |
| 40.71% | 22 | Rush% | 42.80% | 17 |
| 59.29% | 11 | Pass% | 57.20% | 16 |
| 46.07% | 29 | Opp. Rush % | 42.18% | 14 |
| 53.93% | 4 | Opp. Pass % | 57.82% | 19 |
- The Cowboys were the only offense to score on over half of their possessions last season, leading the league at 54.5% of drives ending in points.
- The Browns allowed opponents to score on 24.8% of their drives, the lowest rate in the league.
- The Browns allowed 0.92 points per drive at home last season (first in the league), but 2.13 points per drive on the road (20th).
- Dallas was 10-0 last season when it scored first in the game and 2-6 when its opponent scored first.
- The Browns allowed opponents to convert just 29.1% of their third downs in 2023, the lowest rate in the NFL and the sixth-lowest rate for a team in the 2000s.
- Dallas led the NFL with a 44.7% pressure rate defensively in 2023.
- Cleveland was second in the league with a 42.5% pressure rate.
- 25.6% of the runs against Cleveland failed to gain yardage last season, the highest rate in the league.
- Dallas averaged 71.3 more passing yards per game than its opponent in 2023, the most in the league.
- The Browns averaged 52.5 more passing yards per game than their opponent last season, third in the league.
Trust = spike production for that player
Quarterback
Dak Prescott: Prescott had arguably the best season of his career in 2023.
He led the NFL in completions (410) and touchdown passes (36), and his 69.5% completion rate was the highest of his career.
Prescott was second in the NFL in EPA per dropback (0.18) and third in success rate (48.5%). Both marks were the second-highest rates in those areas for his career.
He also had a 1.5% interception rate, his lowest in a season since 2018.
He averaged 20.2 fantasy points per game (QB4), the fourth time he eclipsed 20.0 fantasy points per game over the past five seasons.
The 87.3% production output compared to the QB1 scorer overall was the best of his career.
While Prescott has been a stable fantasy bet, there are a few threads to pull here entering 2024.
You don’t lead the NFL in passing touchdowns without some fortune in that department.
We should expect some touchdown regression after he led all passers with 9.7 passing touchdowns over expectations.
Prescott set career-highs in pass attempts inside the 10-yard line (49) and 5-yard line (21).
Prescott led the NFL with 67 pass attempts into the end zone last season. The next closest player had 53.
His career-high in end zone pass attempts before last year was 45.
Over the past decade, 53.4% of all passing touchdowns have come from throws that are into the actual end zone. In 2023, the league rate was 54.3%.
75% of Prescott’s passing touchdowns last year came on throws into the actual end zone.
His previous high in a season was 56.5%.
This is also arguably the weakest surrounding offensive unit that Prescott has had in Dallas.
Outside of CeeDee Lamb, this is the worst collection of offensive line, running backs, and pass catchers he has had.
A good place for any potential regression to start would be in this spot.
Cleveland was 5th in the league in passing points allowed per attempt (0.344) and second in passing points allowed per game (10.8).
Prescott faced four teams in the top-10 in passing points allowed last season (the Jets, Patriots, Bills, and 49ers), and in those games, he closed those weeks as the QB17, QB17, QB29, and QB32.
In those games, Prescott threw four touchdowns and four interceptions.
He averaged 6.2 yards per pass attempt.
Prescott is a QB2 option in Week 1.
Deshaun Watson: Watson has failed to recapture the early-career success he had with Houston since joining the Browns.
Watson only started six games in 2023, with one of those being a game in which he played 12 snaps before exiting.
Watson sustained a rotator cuff injury in Week 3 that did not allow him to return in full until Week 9.
In Week 10, he suffered a broken bone in his throwing shoulder that required surgery and sidelined him for the remainder of the year.
Watson has now made 12 starts since the 2020 season.
Out of 48 quarterbacks to throw 100 or more passes last season, Watson ranked 39th in EPA per dropback (-0.16) and 35th in success rate (39.3%).
On that same list, Watson ranked 38th in completion rate (61.4%), 31st in yards per pass attempt (6.5 Y/A), 24th in touchdown rate (4.1%), and 24th in interception rate (2.3%).
17.0% of Watson’s throws were inaccurate per TruMedia, the highest rate of his career and ahead of only Trevor Siemian (17.0%) and PJ Walker (20.7%) among those passers.
Watson’s throwing shoulder issues likely played a role in those accuracy issues, but this is not the same player we saw in Houston.
We also have not gotten positive vibes this preseason that his shoulder issues are behind him.
Watson did not appear in the preseason and was shut down for rest a week ago.
Despite all of the negativity to this point, Watson was inside of the top 10 fantasy scorers in three of his five full games last season.
He averaged 17.7 fantasy points per game in those weeks, which would have been QB13 on the season.
Watson added 4.0 rushing points per game those weeks with 28.4 yards on the ground per contest.
In Watson’s final game of the season in Week 10, Cleveland beat Baltimore 33-31 on the road in a game in which Watson completed all 14 of his passes in the second half for 9.6 yards per pass attempt.
The Browns are committed to Watson financially, and Kevin Stefanski has shown that he wants to throw the football more.
With Cleveland, Stefanski’s offenses have gone from 29th in dropback rate (53.5%), to 26th (56.6%), to 25th (55.0%), to 21st (58.5%).
Paired with the unknown timetable for Nick Chubb returning close to 100% this season, Cleveland should be expected to see another spike in pass rate, despite the defense being one of the best in the NFL.
The team added Jerry Jeudy to go with Amari Cooper, David Njoku, and Elijah Moore.
While Watson may prove to be undervalued overall this summer in fantasy leagues, this is not a spot where I am excited to use him as more than a boom-or-bust QB2.
The swap of Dan Quinn to Mike Zimmer may not prove to be a major change given Zimmer’s body of work, but Dallas has a lot in motion with the back end of its defense.
Stephon Gilmore was not retained, while DaRon Bland will miss the start of the season due to injury.
Trevon Diggs is back but is returning from a torn ACL.
Even with all those moving parts, Dallas can rush the passer.
They led the NFL in pressure rate last season.
Watson averaged only 5.0 yards per pass attempt under pressure last season, which was 40th in the league.
Running Back
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Learn MoreMore Week 1 fantasy breakdowns from The Worksheet:
| Matchup | Time |
|---|---|
| Ravens @ Chiefs -- Free | Thursday Night Football |
| Packers @ Eagles -- Free | Friday Night Football |
| Steelers @ Falcons | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Cardinals @ Bills | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Titans @ Bears | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Patriots @ Bengals | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Texans @ Colts | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Jaguars @ Dolphins | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Panthers @ Saints | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Vikings @ Giants | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Raiders @ Chargers | Sunday -- 4:05 p.m. ET |
| Broncos @ Seahawks | Sunday -- 4:05 p.m. ET |
| Cowboys @ Browns | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Commanders @ Bucs | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Rams @ Lions | Sunday Night Football |
| Jets @ 49ers -- Free | Monday Night Football |