Cowboys vs Chiefs Fantasy Football Worksheet, Week 11

The Worksheet, a fantasy football overview by Rich Hribar, breaking down everything you need to know for the Week 11 Dallas Cowboys at Kansas City Chiefs Sunday afternoon game.

Dallas	Rank	@	Kansas City	Rank
2.5		Spread	-2.5
26.5		Implied Total	29
31.6	1	Points/Gm	26.2	10
21.7	10	Points All./Gm	24.1	20
68.6	3	Plays/Gm	69	2
60.9	7	Opp. Plays/Gm	59.8	3
6.3	1	Off. Yards/Play	5.9	10
5.8	26	Def. Yards/Play	6.2	31
43.92%	10	Rush%	35.36%	29
56.08%	23	Pass%	64.64%	4
38.32%	9	Opp. Rush %	41.64%	18
61.68%	24	Opp. Pass %	58.36%	15

The Chiefs are 0-5 against the spread at home this season and 0-9 against the spread in their past nine home games in the regular season.
The Cowboys are 4-0 against the spread on the road this season.
Games involving the Cowboys have averaged 53.2 combined points per game, second most in the league.
Games involving the Chiefs have averaged 50.3 combined points per game, sixth in the league.
Dallas is averaging 90.8 non-passing fantasy points per game as a team (second) while Kansas City is averaging 88.3 per game (third).
The Chiefs are averaging a league-high 40.1 yards per possession.
The Cowboys are second in the league, averaging 39.9 yards per drive.

Trust = spike production for that player

Quarterback

Patrick Mahomes (TRUST): Mahomes and the Chiefs reclaimed their groove for at least one night on Sunday as Mahomes scored a season-high 36.2 points, completing 35-of-50 passes for 406 yards and five touchdown passes. A lot was spoken about how the Raiders stayed in Cover 3 single-high safety looks to their detriment, but the Chiefs still took full advantage of making the easy plays they had been leaving on the field paired with some variance on the aggressive throws from Mahomes that had not worked out over the previous three weeks.

This is not a situation where I am fully diving back in on the Chiefs as an unstoppable force that is back to rule the rest of the season but imagine not wanting to invest in the upside of this game environment should this game reach it’s apex.

Dallas is not a team that has played a lot of 2-high safeties themselves this season and their linebackers and safeties have not been particularly good in coverage at all this season. If the Cowboys are going to adjust and recalibrate for the Chiefs, they will be going against things that have worked out for them this season, which is playing fast and aggressive man coverage, something that is also likely not going to work against the Chiefs. We saw Dallas play a ton of man against the Buccaneers and get toasted to open the season.

Even with the destruction of Matt Ryan and the Falcons factored in, Dallas is still 22nd in yards allowed per pass attempt (7.6 yards) and 26th in yards allowed per completion (12.0 yards).

Dak Prescott (TRUST): A week after his worst game of the season, Prescott quickly rebounded to outscore every quarterback but Mahomes last week, completing 24-of-31 passes for 296 yards (9.5 Y/A) and two touchdowns with an added score on the ground, his first rushing touchdown on the season.

The Chiefs have been playing better from an efficiency stance of late compared to early in the season, but they just allowed another top-10 fantasy performance to Derek Carr (18.2 points). Through 10 games, the only quarterbacks to finish lower than QB13 against Kansas City have been Baker Mayfield, Taylor Heinicke, and Jordan Love. The Chiefs are still 27th in the league in yards allowed per attempt (8.0 Y/A), 24th in yards allowed per completion (11.9 yards), 21st in completion rate (66.9%), and 24th in touchdown rate (5.1%) allowed.

Running Back

Ezekiel Elliott: Elliott has not rushed for more than 69 yards in a game since Week 5 and was forced to grind out 41 yards on 14 carries last week, but he found the end zone twice after a three-game scoring drought. Elliott has been held to 73. 76, and 56 total yards the past three weeks, but now draws a Kansas City defense allowing 4.3 yards per carry to backs (18th), but only face 18.6 carries per game to backs (fifth) due to game script. The Chiefs are 23rd in receiving points per game to make up ground while Elliott ranks third among all backs in routes run per dropback (61.9%). Keep Elliott as a front-end RB1 option.

Chiefs RBs: With Clyde Edwards-Helaire potentially returning this week, we have an unknown split incoming. Darrel Williams has been a strong fantasy asset in the absence of Edwards-Helaire, racking up 24, eight, 19, 22, and 20 touches the past five games. Williams produced yardage totals of 89, 50, 110, 77, and 144 yards, so his volume was key to that success.

I would still expect Williams to play in long down and distances, passing situations, and near the goal line even with Edwards-Helaire returning, but Edwards-Helaire should work back in as the primary runner sooner than later. Williams is sixth from the bottom of the league in rushing yardage below expectation (-73 yards) while Edwards-Helaire was dead-on his expected production running the football. Against light boxes, Williams is averaging just 3.7 yards per carry compared to 5.0 for Edwards-Helaire. Dallas is allowing 4.5 yards per carry to backs (23rd).

The downside is that Edwards-Helaire is a longer bet to find the end zone or stack receptions like Williams was in the lineup. Williams can still make an impact finding the paint while Dallas is allowing 5.6 catches per game to backs (21st).

I would be uneasy starting either Kansas City back because of the unknown usage, but the Chiefs have been committed to running the ball against light fronts all season and the implied game total here screams scoring potential to keep both as FLEX options.

Tony Pollard: Pollard took advantage of the blowout last week, racking up 17 touches for 98 yards. We have talked about this multiple times this season, but Pollard’s involvement has been totally dependent on game script. When Dallas is in neutral and positive game script, we see Pollard mixed in while his three games with single-digit touches this year have come in the three games Dallas has trailed throughout since Elliott plays in the passing situations. Pollard has scored just once on the season and although the game environment suits anyone as a FLEX play, being a road underdog makes him more volatile.

Wide Receiver

Tyreek Hill (TRUST): Catching 7-of-10 targets for 83 yards and two touchdowns last week, Hill has still not hit 100 yards in a game since Week 4, but he continues to stack heavy targets, seeing nine or more targets in each of his past seven games while averaging 12.1 targets per game over that stretch. Dallas is 23rd in yards allowed per target (8.6 yards) while allowing 14.7 yards per catch (31st) to opposing wideouts. When they give up production and completions, they are big gains.

CeeDee Lamb (TRUST): Lamb played a season-low 42% of the snaps as the Cowboys cruised, but Lamb was a major part of building the huge lead as he secured 6-of-7 targets for 94 yards and two touchdowns. The Chiefs have primarily played man coverage this season, but Atlanta tried that last week and had their doors blown off as Lamb has obliterated man coverage this season, averaging 18.6 yards per catch with all six of his touchdowns against man coverage. Lamb has been the most stable Dallas wideout, posting four top-20 scoring weeks over his past five games with two top-5 performances.

Michael Gallup: With Amari Cooper placed on the COVID list and out for Sunday, Gallup will take an elevated role right away. Gallup returned to the field for the first time since Week 1, catching 3-of-5 targets for 42 yards. Gallup ran a route on 56.8% of the dropbacks, but that will surely rocket up as Cooper ran a pass route on a team-high 89.2% of the dropbacks last week.

The Chiefs are facing just 17.6 targets per game to opposing wideouts (fourth fewest), but they are allowing 8.5 yards per target (22nd) and a 6.3% touchdown rate (28th) on those targets. Gallup vaults up into the WR2 range, but does carry some of the similar volatility that Cooper did.

Dallas played less 11 personnel than expected last week, even in the first half, only going 11 personnel on 46% of the snaps before the blowout was lined up. Cedrick Wilson also gets a bump with the Cooper news as a touchdown dependent DFS option.

Chiefs WRs: Mecole Hardman is coming off season-low usage last week, running a pass route on just 33.3% of the dropbacks while Byron Pringle (66.7%) and Demarcus Robinson (45.1%) ran well ahead of him. Hardman had run a route on 69.2% of the dropbacks prior, so this could be a one-off of variance or an actual change made that was also a part of the success we saw on Sunday night. Pringle caught 4-of-5 targets for 46 yards and a score while Robinson caught 3-of-4 targets for 23 yards and Hardman 2-of-3 for 27 yards. No one here is a seasonal league play, but if things stay sticky, Pringle becomes a dart throw in DFS stacks.

Tight End

Travis Kelce (TRUST): After a down Week 8, Kelce has bounced back as the TE3 (5-68-1) and the TE1 (8-119-0) in overall scoring the past two games. He still is pacing the position in fantasy and now draws a Dallas defense allowing 8.6 yards per target (27th) and a 6.6% touchdown rate (22nd) to opposing tight ends.

Dalton Schultz: Schultz has seen his usage sag of late. We never expected him to sustain the massive target share he held Weeks 3-5 (29.1%) and that mark has sunk down to 12.3% over the past four weeks. Schultz has secured just 12-of-20 targets over those four games for 158 yards and zero scores. The good news is he is still playing a ton. Schultz has run a route on 90.7% and 81.1% of the dropbacks the past two games with Blake Jarwin out, his two highest rates on the season. The Chiefs just clamped Darren Waller for a season-low 24 yards but are still last in the NFL in yards allowed per target (9.4 yards) to the position to go along with an 8.8% touchdown rate (29th). To keep Schultz in play as a matchup-based option as a lower-end TE1.