The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Week 12 matchup between the Commanders and Cowboys.
Find a breakdown of every Week 12 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.
| Dallas | Rank | @ | Washington | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.5 | Spread | -10.5 | ||
| 17.5 | Implied Total | 28 | ||
| 18.7 | 24 | Points/Gm | 28 | 4 |
| 29.3 | 31 | Points All./Gm | 22.1 | 14 |
| 65.5 | 4 | Plays/Gm | 62.5 | 11 |
| 61.9 | 18 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 60.1 | 10 |
| 4.9 | 25 | Off. Yards/Play | 5.9 | 6 |
| 5.9 | 30 | Def. Yards/Play | 5.6 | 20 |
| 32.82% | 32 | Rush% | 49.93% | 5 |
| 67.18% | 1 | Pass% | 50.07% | 28 |
| 51.37% | 31 | Opp. Rush % | 50.68% | 30 |
| 48.63% | 2 | Opp. Pass % | 49.32% | 3 |
- Since Week 6, Dallas is last in the NFL in combined offensive and defensive EPA (-113.7).
- Over that span, the Cowboys have converted 26.9% (18-of-67) of their third downs on offense, which is 31st in the league.
- Over that same period, Dallas has averaged a league-low 1.19 points per drive.
- Dallas has turned the ball over on 23.7% of their drives over that span, the highest rate in the league.
- Washington has turned the ball over on 1.6% of their drives over that span, the lowest rate in the league.
- Washington is 13th in passing EPA over their past four games (18.8) after ranking 1st prior (80.9).
- Dallas is last in the league in EPA as a run defense (-15.9).
- Washington is 31st (-9.2).
- Washington leads the NFL with a 47.8% success rate on rushing plays.
- 61.3% (19-of-31) of the Washington touchdowns on offense are rushing, tied with the Eagles for the highest rate in the league.
Trust = spike production for that player
Quarterback
Jayden Daniels: Closing last week as QB25 (13.4 points), Daniels has been outside QB1 scoring in back-to-back weeks for the first time this season.
He has not had a week higher than QB9 in weekly scoring since Week 4.
There has been a lot pulling down Daniels after a hot start to the season, but we have had a pretty strong read on his outlook and the spots to be cautious about over the past few weeks.
For starters, we have been talking about his schedule all season long.
Washington had an incredible layout to open the year and has since faced three of the better pass defenses (Bears, Steelers, and Eagles) over the past month.
On Thursday Night, the Eagles overwhelmed this passing game, as they have done to everyone since their bye, including a red-hot Joe Burrow.
The Eagles have been excellent on the perimeter, and the Horizontal Raid was back in full effect on Thursday Night.
For those new to my content, that is what I called Kliff Kingsbury’s offense while he was in Arizona.
Daniels averaged only 3.6 air yards per throw, his lowest rate in a game this season.
He only threw 31.3% of his passes 5 or more yards downfield, the lowest rate for any quarterback in a game this season.
He threw a season-low 34.4% of his passes to wide receivers.
It has been a while since the Horizontal Raid showed up this season, but Thursday Night was a reminder that Kingsbury’s shortcomings can still crop up.
Washington has been adamant that Daniels is not playing injured and is not bothered by a rib injury he suffered in Week 7.
He has rushed for only 23 yards the past two weeks, but Daniels ran 8 times for 52 yards and 7 times for 35 yards immediately after that rib injury.
His lack of rushing in the past two games looks more happenstance than injury-related because he ran effectively right after that injury.
He scrambled on 10.3% of his dropbacks last Thursday (his season rate is 12.7%), but they did not result in any yardage.
Lastly, we have been discussing this for a few weeks now, but Daniels has had bad touchdown luck outright.
He has no touchdown passes on a throw that did not go into the end zone.
No other quarterback that has started all season can say that.
Daniels has five completed passes in which his receiver was tackled at the 1-yard line, tied for the most in the league.
I have Daniels throwing for 4.5 fewer touchdowns than expected, ahead of only Geno Smith.
Daniels is a rookie quarterback going through his first rough patch, but this week, he has a chance to rebound.
Washington is a massive home favorite, sporting one of the highest totals on the week.
Maybe Washington steamrolls Dallas on the ground, and Daniels does not get there like C.J. Stroud on Monday, but these are the spots to buy into objectively.
We did that with Tua Tagovailoa last week and were rewarded.
I would not run away from Daniels as a QB1 just yet.
Dallas has allowed a 67.2% completion rate (23rd), 8.3 yards per pass attempt (31st), and a 5.4% touchdown rate (25th) to passers.
Cooper Rush: It was not pretty, but Rush stacked enough volume to provide a usable QB2 scoring week for gamers on Monday Night.
Rush only averaged 6.4 yards per pass attempt, but he threw the ball 55 times, tied for the 4th-most by any passer this season.
He completed 32 passes for 354 yards, with a touchdown and an interception.
2QB gamers will take it compared to what they received the week prior, but Rush only ended the week as QB18 (16.4 points) on that volume.
We cannot count on 50-plus passes per game or a player who has completed only 56.5% and 58.2% of his passes to keep the job for the rest of the season.
Rush is still a back-end QB2 option, but we only have 26 teams playing this weekend.
If Dallas were going to have to throw a lot again, it would be as double-digit road underdogs.
Washington is 10th in getting pressure on quarterbacks (37.1%).
Under pressure, Rush has completed just 42.3% of his passes for 3.8 yards per pass attempt.
Running Back
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More Week 12 Fantasy Breakdowns From The Worksheet:
| Matchup | Time |
|---|---|
| Steelers @ Browns -- FREE | Thursday Night Football |
| Vikings @ Bears | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Lions @ Colts | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Patriots @ Dolphins | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Bucs @ Giants | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Cowboys @ Commanders | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Chiefs @ Panthers | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Titans @ Texans | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Broncos @ Raiders | Sunday -- 4:05 p.m. ET |
| 49ers @ Packers | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Cardinals @ Seahawks | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Eagles @ Rams | Sunday Night Football |
| Ravens @ Chargers -- FREE | Monday Night Football |
