Dolphins vs. Cowboys Fantasy Football Worksheet, Week 16

The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Week 16 matchup between the Cowboys and Dolphins.

Find a breakdown of every Week 16 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.

Dallas	Rank	@	Miami	Rank
1.5		Spread	-1.5
24.75		Implied Total	26.25
30.8	2	Points/Gm	31.5	1
18.9	5	Points All./Gm	21.0	14
66.4	3	Plays/Gm	62.5	19
59.6	3	Opp. Plays/Gm	61.7	8
5.5	7	Off. Yards/Play	6.6	2
4.9	9	Def. Yards/Play	4.8	4
42.26%	18	Rush%	44.00%	10
57.74%	15	Pass%	56.00%	23
46.16%	28	Opp. Rush %	39.35%	8
53.84%	5	Opp. Pass %	60.65%	25

The Cowboys are 0-3 as an underdog this season, being outscored by 19.3 points per game in those weeks.
As a favorite, Dallas is 10-1, outscoring teams by 20.5 points per game.
Miami has played just three games against teams that currently have a winning record, 29th in the league. They are 0-3 in those games.
Miami is 10-0 in games they have led at halftime and 0-4 in games they have trailed at halftime, one of two teams with a clean split when leading or trailing at the half.
Miami is averaging 2.90 points per drive at home, second in the league behind Dallas.
The Dolphins have scored a touchdown on 36.9% of their drives at home, second in the league.
Dallas has a takeaway on 9.7% of opponent possessions on the road (25th) as opposed to a league-high 18.4% rate at home.
The Dolphins are allowing a league-low 68.7 rushing yards per game at home.
Miami is allowing a league-low 1.35 points per drive over their past 10 games.
The Dolphins are averaging 8.0 yards per play on third downs, the most in the league. the next closest team is Dallas at 6.8 yards.
Miami is allowing 3.8 yards per play on third down, second in the league.
Miami is averaging 15.4 plays of 10 or more yards per game, the most in the league.
The Dolphins have a league-high 11 plays that have gained 50 or more yards.

Trust = spike production for that player

Quarterback

Tua Tagovailoa: Tua played a great real football game on Sunday.

Entering the week without Tyreek Hill and a skeleton crew on the offensive line against a front-end defense, Tagovailoa completed 21-of-24 passes for 224 yards (9.3 Y/A) with a touchdown.

Jaylen Waddle did all of the lifting in Hill’s absence through the air.

How did Mike McDaniel combat the deficiency he had up front dealing with injuries? Well, you can’t pressure the quarterback if he doesn’t have the ball.

Tua got rid of the football on a league-fastest 2.14 seconds per throw on Sunday.

70.4% of his passes were out of his hand within 2.5 seconds, the highest rate in the league in Week 15.

Just another feather in Tua’s and McDaniel’s cap this season.

The downside for gamers is that Tua did not have a great fantasy day.

He closed the week QB22 (12. 9 points).

Tagovailoa has now finished as a QB1 scorer in just two of his past six games and three of his past eight.

His past two QB1 scoring weeks have come against the Raiders and Commanders, a pair of cleaner spots to attack an upside outcome.

Over that same span, he has faced the Chiefs (QB16) and Jets (QB28 and QB22) as tougher opponents and has come out of those games as a clear QB2 for fantasy.

The Cowboys are getting pressure on the quarterback on a league-high 46.8% of dropbacks. The Bills only had 19 dropbacks last week and Dallas pressured Josh Allen on 11 of them.

We should expect the ball to come out quickly again given the matchup and the state of the offensive line.

Dallas is allowing 11.0 passing points per game, fifth in the league.

We have seen Jalen Hurts (QB24) and Allen (QB16) close as QB2 fantasy options the past two weeks against the Cowboys.

They also did allow a QB1 overall performance to Geno Smith just three weeks ago to keep the lights on for Tua having a path to an upside outcome should this game outright cook.

That said, this is a spot where I am handling Tua as someone who likely has a better real game again compared to an elite fantasy outing.

I will mix in a few stacks in DFS based on Tua’s apex outcome, but he is someone I would entertain streaming for again in my seasonal leagues.

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