As part of the Sharp Football Draft Kit, Raymond Summerlin is posting a fantasy football preview for all 32 NFL teams.
This preview includes advanced stats, the fantasy football outlook for Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb, Brandin Cooks, Michael Gallup, Tony Pollard, and every other notable Cowboy, and in-depth analysis of the coaching staff, passing game, and rushing attack.
Find a link to every team preview in our Draft Kit Hub.
Highlights:
- Mike McCarthy says he wants to “run the damn ball,” but the Cowboys already had the seventh-highest run rate in neutral situations last season and were 25th in pass rate over expected. It will be tough for them to run the ball more than they already have.
- Dak Prescott’s rushing numbers did bounce back from the 9.1 yards per game he averaged in 2021, but he still managed just 15.2 yards per game in 2022. He only had three carries on goal-to-go downs, 23rd among quarterbacks. At the age where rushing production falls off for quarterbacks, Prescott’s fantasy upside is tied to his arm more than ever.
- Tony Pollard dramatically outshot his expected touchdown total last season thanks in part to three touchdowns of at least 50 yards and another two from 30 yards out. That will not be a concern moving forward if his touch total grows, especially since Pollard has proven he can retain elite efficiency as his workload increases. However, it will become an issue if the Cowboys bring in a veteran back or one of the runners behind him on the depth chart becomes a real threat for touches.
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2022 Cowboys Stats (NFL Rank):
- Points: 467 (3rd)
- Total Offense: 6,034 (10th)
- Plays: 1,114 (8th)
- Offensive TDs: 52 (3rd)
- Points Per Drive: 2.31 (7th)
- EPA+ Per Play: 3.1 (10th)
- Situation Neutral Pace: 29 seconds (2nd)
2023 Cowboys Coaching Staff:
Head Coach: Mike McCarthy
Offensive Coordinator: Brian Schottenheimer
Despite a successful year on offense in which the Cowboys were sixth in EPA per play after Dak Prescott returned from his injury, Dallas decided to move on from Kellen Moore after the season.
Brian Schottenheimer will take over as offensive coordinator, but Mike McCarthy is expected to call the plays. That might be a concern moving forward.
Talking about the differences between him and Moore, McCarthy said, “I just want to run the damn ball.”
The Cowboys already “ran the damn ball” as much as any team in the league last year including the seventh-highest run rate in neutral situations.
That was despite being relatively average at running the ball on early downs, although that might not be as big of an issue with Tony Pollard expected to take on most of the work now that Ezekiel Elliott is gone.
It is also a bit surprising given how McCarthy ran his offenses in Green Bay.
The Packers were first in neutral pass rate during his second stint calling the plays from 2016 to 2018, and they were second from 2010 to 2014.
The Packers were six percent over their expected pass rate from 2010 to 2018, the year he was fired.
Then again, the hiring of Schottenheimer suggests McCarthy is serious about “running the damn ball.”
Schotty led a Seahawks offense that was two percent under their expected pass rate and 10th in neutral run rate over his three seasons in charge.
Especially after upgrading the receiver room over the offseason, it does not make a ton of sense for Dallas to be even more run-heavy, but the offseason rhetoric suggests it could go that way.
2022 Cowboys Passing Stats:
- Dropbacks: 600 (24th)
- Neutral Pass Rate: 47.8% (26th)
- Pass Rate Over Expected: -6% (25th)
- Pressure Rate Allowed: 20.7% (18th)
- ESPN Pass Block Win Rate: 53% (27th)
2023 Cowboys Passing Game Preview:
The Cowboys will face the eighth-toughest passing schedule based on 2022 efficiency numbers.
QB: Dak Prescott, Cooper Rush
WR: CeeDee Lamb, KaVontae Turpin
WR: Brandin Cooks, Jalen Tolbert
WR: Michael Gallup, Simi Fehoko
TE: Jake Ferguson, Luke Schoonmaker
Even in a down year that featured easily the highest interception rate of his career, Prescott finished ninth in EPA per dropback, 13th in per-game quarterback scoring among players with multiple starts, and with the eighth-best off-target rate according to PFF.
Prescott did put the ball in danger more often than earlier in his career – a 3.8% turnover-worthy play rate last year against his 3.0% career average via PFF – but his 17-interception total including the playoffs was likely inflated.
Assuming last year was more a blip than the start of a decline, the biggest fantasy concerns for Prescott moving forward are volume and rushing.
As mentioned above, the Cowboys have talked about being even more run-heavy moving forward.
Prescott was already 12th among qualifying quarterbacks in dropbacks per game last season, so any decline would likely push him into the bottom half of the league.
That is a problem given concern No. 2.
Prescott’s rushing numbers did bounce back from the 9.1 yards per game he averaged in 2021, but he still managed just 15.2 yards per game in 2022 and is at the age where rushing production falls off.
He only had three carries on goal-to-go downs last season, 23rd among quarterbacks.
Perhaps he gets more chances around the goal line with Zeke gone, but he has just 12 goal-to-go rushing attempts over the last three years combined.
If he is going to be a fantasy QB1 moving forward, it will likely be because of his arm. Luckily, he should have better weapons this season.
His main target, though, will be the same.
CeeDee Lamb set career-highs across the board in his first season without Amari Cooper, finishing with a 107-1,359-9 line and as the WR8 in per-game scoring.
Lamb commanded 28.6% of Dallas’ targets last season and earned a target on 27.4% of his routes. His career-high 2.38 yards per route run was 10th among receivers with at least 50 targets.
The addition of Brandin Cooks could put some pressure on Lamb’s target rate, but the Cowboys have over 200 targets to replace including 89 from Dalton Schultz.
Just entering the prime of his career, Lamb looks like a safe WR1 bet.
As for Cooks, those 200 open targets give him a great opportunity to bounce back after a lost season with the Texans.
He cratered last year, putting up a 57-699-3 line in 13 games, but he was playing in one of the worst offenses in the league and for a team he no longer wanted.
He did not show any signs of decline in 2021 (1.98 yards per route, 25.5% route target rate), so it makes sense last year was more of a bad situation than the start of a slip.
That said, he is nearing the age plateau – 30 in September – so it is possible he has entered the decline phase of his career.
The good news is he will not cost a lot even if that is true.
If he is the same player that has topped 1,000 yards in six of nine seasons and ends up as the No. 2 option in this passing game, it would be a shock if Cooks did not return value at cost.
A player who has to shoulder some blame for Prescott’s interception total, Michael Gallup struggled in his first season back from a torn ACL.
He was targeted on just 17.5% of his routes, set a career-low 1.0 yards per route run, and at times was behind Noah Brown in the pecking order.
He should be healthier another year removed from the injury – he did undergo a clean-up procedure after the season – but he now looks like the No. 3 receiver with Cooks added to the roster.
That could be fine given the uncertainty at tight end with Schultz no longer in the picture, but it is tough to get excited about the No. 3 option in a passing game that will at best have league-average volume.
As for that tight end situation, the Cowboys drafted Luke Schoonmaker in the second round to compete with fourth-round sophomore Jake Ferguson and perhaps Peyton Hendershot for playing time.
The caution about rookie tight ends applies as per usual, and a foot injury forced Schoonmaker to miss valuable training camp reps.
As for Ferguson, he only ran 104 routes as a rookie, but he had a promising 1.67 yards per route run and was targeted on 21.2% of those routes.
Those numbers would have ranked ninth and 10th among qualifying tight ends last season.
Ferguson looks locked in as the No. 1 tight end and comes with some upside given how Schultz was used during his time with the Cowboys.
2022 Cowboys Rushing Stats:
- Rushing Attempts – Scrambles: 514 (2nd)
- Yards Before Contact Per Attempt: 2.5 (23rd)
- Football Outsiders’ Adjusted Line Yards: 4.37 (17th)
- ESPN’s Run Block Win Rate: 73% (6th)
2023 Cowboys Running Game Preview:
The Cowboys will face the 13th-easiest rushing schedule based on 2022 efficiency numbers.
RB: Tony Pollard, Malik Davis, Ronald Jones, Deuce Vaughn
OL: Tyler Smith, Terence Steele, Tyler Biadasz, Zack Martin, Tyron Smith
*Preseason Update: With Ezekiel Elliott now signed by the Patriots and no veteran added, Pollard looks free to fly and is a great pick in the second round.
Pollard has averaged a gaudy 5.7 yards per touch to this point in his career and, more impressively, has managed to maintain that efficiency while his touch total increased every season.
Now he is finally free of the Zeke anchor and looks poised for a massive season, but there are a couple of concerns to consider.
First, there is a real possibility the Cowboys bring in a veteran free agent like Leonard Fournette or, please no, Elliott.
In that scenario, Pollard should remain the lead back, but it could be difficult for him to get the 275-plus touches fantasy players want to see.
Second, Pollard dramatically outshot his expected touchdown total last season thanks in part to three touchdowns of at least 50 yards and another two from 30 yards out.
The RB9 in per-game scoring last year, Pollard was the RB25 in expected fantasy points per game according to PFF.
That second concern is not important if his touch total grows, especially since Pollard has proven he can retain elite efficiency as his workload increases.
However, it will become an issue if the Cowboys bring in a veteran back or one of the runners behind him on the depth chart becomes a real threat for touches.
Given the upside, it is tough to argue with Pollard’s RB1 valuation, but there is some downside.
As for the rest of the backfield, it is tough to guess who will emerge as the No. 2 option.
Ronald Jones has the experience, but he has had a rough go of it in recent seasons and is suspended for the first two games of the season.
Deuce Vaughn is a sixth-round pick that is dramatically undersized.
Malik Davis averaged 5.1 yards on 44 touches last season and seems to have a head start, but it is tough to call between those three and even Rico Dowdle.
