Cowboys vs Jaguars Fantasy Football Worksheet, Week 15

The Worksheet, a fantasy football overview by Rich Hribar, breaking down everything you need to know for the Week 15 Dallas Cowboys at Jacksonville Jaguars Sunday afternoon game.

• The Cowboys have now outscored opponents by 105 points in the second half, the most in the league. The next closest team is at +49 points.
• 29.1% of the Dallas red zone plays have gone for touchdowns, the highest rate in the league. League rate outside of them is 19.9%.
• The Jaguars have allowed a touchdown on 24.6% of plays in the red zone, 30th in the league.
• Trevor Lawrence is now fifth among quarterbacks in red zone fantasy points (93.0).
• The Cowboys are averaging 6.1 yards per play since Dak Prescott returned in Week 7, fifth in the league.
• The Jaguars are allowing 6.2 yards per play over that span, 31st in the league.
• Since Prescott returned, Dallas is first in the league in points per drive (3.04), scoring rate per drive (48.7%), and touchdown rate per drive (39.7%).
• Over that same span, the Jaguars are 30th in the league in points allowed per drive (2.54), 29th in scoring rate per drive (46.5%), and 29th in touchdown rate allowed per drive (28.2%).
• The Jaguars have rushed for a league-low 67.0 yards per game over their past four games after rushing for 146.8 yards per game prior.

Trust = spike production for that player

Quarterback

Dak Prescott (TRUST): Prescott has not finished as a QB1 in any of his past three starts after coming back with three straight QB1 weeks prior. He did throw for a season-high 284 yards last week in a needed comeback against the Texans, but the threw another two interceptions, giving him five turnovers over the past three games.

This is a great spot to snap that QB1 draught. The Jaguars have been getting shredded through the air, allowing a QB1 scorer in seven of their past eight games, which includes spike weeks to Matt Ryan (27.2 points), Daniel Jones (28.8 points), Jared Goff (21.6 points), and Ryan Tannehill (17.8 points).

Over that span, the Jaguars are allowing 7.6 yards per pass attempt (26th) and a 5.3% touchdown rate (27th) while they are 30th in sack rate (4.2%).

Trevor Lawrence: After a disappointing showing the week prior in Detroit and missing nearly all of practice coming into Sunday, Lawrence was excellent on Sunday, pacing the position in fantasy scoring (33.4 points). Lawrence was 30-of-42 passing for 368 yards and three touchdowns, adding a fourth touchdown on the ground. 

Lawrence has now been a QB1 scorer in six of his past eight games (top six in five of those) with just one week in the back half of weekly scoring during that stretch. 

Lawrence has only faced one defense in the top 15 of passing points allowed over that span, which also was that one down week against the Broncos when he was the QB28. Dallas is allowing 11.3 passing points per game (sixth). They have allowed just three QB1 scoring weeks on the year and just one quarterback to close a week higher than QB9. 

The Cowboys did just allow 8.3 yards per pass attempt to Davis Mills and this game offers some of the best scoring potential on this slate of games. There is a path for this game to shoot out. That upside angle keeps Lawrence in play as a lower-end QB1, but there is more volatility here based on the recent schedule the Jaguars have faced.

Running Back

Cowboys RBs: This backfield just continues to hum with both Tony Pollard and Ezekiel Elliott turning in production. Pollard turned 14 touches into 62 yards and two touchdowns on Sunday while Elliott posted 18 touches for 81 yards and a touchdown. It was the second in a row in which both were RB1 scorers. 

Since Elliott returned in Week 11, this duo has combined for 732 yards in those four games with 11 touchdowns. That is wild production, especially in the touchdown department. Pollard now has 10 touchdowns over his past six games played while Elliott has eight touchdowns over his past six games played. 

We haven’t seen Elliott fail to reach the end zone since Week 5. 36.8% of his total fantasy output has come via touchdowns. Elliott does not have a game with 100 total yards, so there is some fragility here when he does inevitably fail to score. 

We saw that happen with Pollard two weeks ago on Thanksgiving when he was the RB40 despite having 20 touches. 32.9% of Pollard’s points are directly from touchdowns, which is fourth in the league behind Kenneth Walker, Elliott, and Jamaal Williams. 

We have yet to see this split become an issue because both backs are riding high on touchdowns. That is no reason to run away from things, either, because this backfield has held massive touchdown equity.  Dallas is running the ball 69.2% of the time inside of the 5-yard line, sixth in the league.

Pollard is a fringe RB1 while Elliott is a touchdown-dependent RB2.

The Jaguars are an equal opportunity defense for opposing backs, allowing 13.7 rushing points per game (20th) and 11.2 receiving points per game (25th). 

Travis Etienne: We knew Etienne was going to have a tough time last week and that played out as he rushed 17 times for 32 yards. He was stoned on a goal line attempt which could have salvaged things some, but at the end of the day Etienne had his fourth straight week finishing outside of the top-24 scorers.

What got in the way of his floor again was the lack of receiving work. Etienne was not even targeted in the game. He still does not have more than three receptions in any game this season. 

The silver lining is that Etienne still handled 80.9% of the backfield touches, which was seventh in the league among backs last week. While the lack of receiving is a floor killer, Etienne’s overall workload remains strong in context of his peers.

Dallas is allowing 4.30 YPC to backs (15th), but they are fifth in success rate (66.9%) on those carries while allowing a first down or touchdown on 20.6% of those attempts (ninth). 

This game has the potential to get cooking. Etienne still holds upside as a boom-or-bust option on the RB1/RB2 line.

Wide Receiver

CeeDee Lamb: Lamb was limited to just five catches for 33 yards. In a game in which Dallas had 39 targets available as a team, Lamb only saw six of them come in his direction. That 15.4% target share was a season-low and the second time in four games that he dipped below 20%. 

Lamb has at least five receptions in 11 of his past 12 games, but the counting targets have been finicky compared to his WR1 peers. Lamb has more than seven targets in just two of the seven games since Prescott returned to the lineup. 

That has given us some up-and-down weeks with Lamb, but this is a week to keep going back to him as a WR1. The Jaguars are allowing 8.6 yards per target (23rd) and a 5.5% touchdown rate (23rd) to opposing slot wideouts (where Lamb plays 51% of his snaps) while the Jags are also allowing a 7.5% touchdown rate (30th) to boundary wideouts. 

Christian Kirk and Zay Jones: With two big performances elsewhere in this passing game, Christian Kirk was the odd man out for this offense last week, catching 5-of-7 targets for 45 yards. 

Over his past six games, Kirk has been a volatile fantasy performer. He has scoring weeks as the WR5, WR4, and WR18, but also has been the WR57, WR62, and WR43. Kirk still ran a route on 100% of the dropbacks, we just have seen other players in this passing game pop with spike weeks of late. 

There has been some added volatility for Kirk because he and Zay Jones have nearly identical usage. Kirk was just running hotter more often and things have finally swung in the direction for Jones, who has been a WR1 in two of the past three games and a WR2 or better in three of the past four. Jones has 43 targets now over his past four games.

Kirk has been targeted on 22.2% of his routes while Jones has been targeted on 22.6% of his routes. Kirk has 27.9% of the team air yards and a depth of target of 8.6 yards while Jones has 24.5% of the air yards and a depth of target of 8.2 yards. From an expected points stance, Kirk is the WR11 while Jones is the WR14, but Kirk is the WR10 in actual scoring while Jones is the WR28. That tells us what we already know, that Kirk is the better real life player, but the opportunity for Jones is still strong.

Both Kirk and Jones should be closer together as boom-or-bust WR2 options since there have been just two games in which they have been top-24 scorers together. 

From a matchup stance here, Kirk still has the objective edge. Kirk is playing 68% of his snaps in the slot, where Dallas is allowing a league-high 9.2% touchdown rate to opposing wide receivers. 

On the outside (where Jones played 69%) of his snaps, Dallas is allowing a 4.7% touch rate (18th).

Michael Gallup: Gallup caught 2-of-6 targets for 40 yards Sunday. He now has been higher than WR25 just once on the season and has eclipsed 49 yards just one time. I don’t believe we need to worry about the addition of T.Y. Hilton here this week, but Gallup is a touchdown-dependent FLEX. He is sort of the poor man’s Adam Thielen right now in this offense for fantasy.

The good news is that if you do have to chase a touchdown, we love the matchup for Prescott while the Jaguars are allowing a 6.3% touchdown rate to opposing wideouts, which is 30th in the league.

Tight End

Dalton Schultz (TRUST): With both Lamb and Gallup lagging last weekend, Schultz was the Cowboy who cashed in, catching 6-of-10 targets for 87 yards (even though he did drop a touchdown). Since Prescott came back in Week 7, Schultz is third among all tight ends with a target on 25.9% of his routes, fifth in target share (20.2%), and third in yards per route run (2.01). 

Schultz also draws a good matchup this week against a Jacksonville defense allowing a league-high 9.4 yards per target paired with a 5.9% touchdown rate (18th).

Evan Engram: Engram posted a career day on Sunday (not just for him, but any tight end), catching 11-of-15 targets for 162 yards and two touchdowns. Prior to Sunday, Engram had 178 yards over his previous six games. 

While we won’t fully go point chasing here, Engram has been a TE1 scorer in five of his past nine games while he has run a route on 80.6% of the Jacksonville dropbacks, which is fifth among all tight ends this season. 

Engram is a boom-or-bust TE1 against a Dallas defense that has been really strong against tight ends. The Cowboys have allowed 5.3 yards per target (third) and a 1.2% touchdown rate (third) to tight ends.

More Week 15 Fantasy breakdowns from The Worksheet:

SF at SEA | IND at MIN | BAL at CLE | MIA at BUF | PHI at CHI | ATL at NO | DET at NYJ | PIT at CAR | DAL at JAX | KC at HOU | ARI at DEN | NE at LVR | TEN at LAC | CIN at TB | NYG at WAS | LAR at GB