Thanksgiving DFS is one of the most fun slates of the entire year.
Sure, you can get short slates every NFL Sunday playing afternoon only, but getting to watch all three games separately adds some excitement to the proceedings.
It also helps we have a good group of games this Thanksgiving including two with totals of 47 or above.
The playable bar is lower with only three games than it is for a normal main slate, and that means you can make a case for just about anyone with a pulse as a good play.
It is still important to identify a core group of plays to build around, however.
These are what I see as the best options on the board for this Thanksgiving slate.
*All prices pulled from DraftKings
Quarterback
The reality is every quarterback on this slate is playable, and if you are creating double-digit lineups, you should probably have at least one featuring each quarterback.
Still, there are a couple that stand out.
Dak Prescott – $6,800
Welcome to the chalk party.
Dak Prescott might be in a third of all lineups, but sometimes the chalk is the chalk for good reason.
While the Cowboys are 13.5-point favorites, they have been willing to throw in any game script over the last several weeks.
Their neutral pass rate is fourth among all teams over the last five weeks (67.6%), and they have a 61.4% dropback rate when leading by 21 points or fewer in the second half of games over that span.
Against the Giants, the Cowboys threw 11 times to six runs in the third quarter when they already had the game well in hand.
So the Cowboys have been throwing early to establish their leads and keep throwing even when they have a lead in the second half.
There is also the matchup.
The Commanders have given up 7.8 yards per pass attempt over the last five weeks (seventh-most) and 20 fantasy points to eight different quarterbacks this season including Tommy Devito last week.
As Rich Hirbar notes in his Worksheet Preview for this game:
“Since Week 2, every quarterback to face Washington has scored more points than they were averaging entering the matchup.
Nine of those 10 quarterbacks have finished as top-10 scorers with six as top-five scorers that week. The only exception was Mac Jones (who still did outscore his average).”
Sometimes a player is in every lineup for a reason, and this looks like one of those instances.
If playing Dak in large-field tournaments, the trick will be getting unique either through HEAVY stacking this game (three Cowboys pass catchers and two Commanders) or getting weird at a couple of different positions. Or both.
Jordan Love – $5,500
On the other end of the spectrum, Jordan Love should be at the low end of the roster percentage on the Thanksgiving slate despite having the lowest price among all the starting quarterbacks.
Love has not been a particularly good real-life quarterback this season, but he has been an effective fantasy option thanks in part to his rushing production.
Love has topped 20 points at DraftKings four times this season including last week when he threw for 322 yards against the Chargers.
The Packers have changed their approach recently, with Love throwing more around the line of scrimmage and more often.
Three of his four highest dropback games are in his last four games, with only one of those a blowout loss.
The Packers also have real injury concerns in the backfield. AJ Dillon is expected to carry the load with Aaron Jones out, but he even enters this game with a groin injury.
Finally, the Packers are eight-point road underdogs, which could also force the offense to lean more into the pass.
Against a Lions defense that is 30th in yards per attempt allowed over the last five weeks (8.7), Love could have a good passing day, and he also carries rushing upside.
Running Back
Christian McCaffrey is the obvious best running back play and probably the best overall play on the board, but he costs $8,700 and could end up on 50% of the rosters in tournaments.
That is no reason to run away from him, but like with Prescott, rostering McCaffrey necessitates getting unique at other spots.
At a much lower level, the same is true of Zach Charbonnet, who is rightfully set to be popular with Kenneth Walker out.
Jahmyr Gibbs – $6,800
The Lions bulldozed the Packers in their first meeting this season, but it was David Montgomery who scored all the fantasy points, going for 121 yards and three touchdowns on 32 carries.
Since Montgomery has returned from injury, however, the Lions backfield has been a true timeshare.
Over the last two games, Jahmyr Gibbs has just two fewer carries than Montgomery and is second on the team in targets with 5.5 per game.
That split does not appear to be a function of game script, either. The first-half carries are dead even between the two over the last two games.
More interestingly, Gibbs actually has six goal-to-go carries over the last two weeks while Montgomery has just three.
Add in the possibility that Montgomery’s performance against the Packers earlier in the season as well as the slight discount he offers compared to Gibbs pushes Monty’s roster percentage up, and Gibbs looks like a better play.
Both backs are good options, but Gibbs offers more explosion, has been more involved around the goal line as of late, and has the added benefit of being game script independent if things do not go as expected on Thanksgiving.
Brian Robinson – $5,900
Hear me out.
If Antonio Gibson sits out again, this is an easy click.
Brian Robinson saw 68% of the running back carries without Gibson last week and actually led the team in targets.
Not the running backs. The team.
Even if Gibson is back, however, Robinson could be a bargain at this price, especially when his likely low roster percentage is taken into account.
Before last week, Robinson had averaged just 9.3 carries in losses, and Washington is a major road underdog on Thursday.
However, Robinson was already getting more involved as a receiver before Gibson was injured, running 19 routes and earning six targets against the Seahawks in Week 10.
Over the last two games, Robinson has been targeted on 28.8% of his routes, a change that coincides with Sam Howell averaging just 5.0 air yards and 6.6 air yards per target over the last two weeks.
Finally, the Cowboys have been susceptible to big plays in the running game as of late.
Over the last five weeks, the Cowboys have allowed a run of 10 or more yards on 13.8% of the carries against them, the third-highest rate allowed over that span.
Both Chuba Hubbard and Miles Sanders had explosive runs last week, and the Carolina running game has been abysmal most of the season.
Robinson himself has a run of 10 or more yards on nearly 11% of his carries, ranking 13th among qualifying running backs.
So with a chance for a big play, increased usage in the passing game, and the possibility this game does not go exactly to the expected script, there are more outs here for Robinson than is reflected in his price and likely roster rate.
As an honorable mention in the same vein as Robinson, AJ Dillon is in a rough spot from a rushing and game script perspective, which makes him less appealing than a lower-priced back inheriting a clear workhorse role would usually be.
Dillon has quietly been used more as a receiver as of late even with Aaron Jones healthy, however, and was targeted on 20% and 16% of his routes over the last two games.
Wide Receiver
CeeDee Lamb and Amon-Ra St. Brown are the highest priced and will be the most rostered receivers on the slate for good reason. They offer outstanding floors with more upside than almost any other receiver playing on Thursday
They should both be core building blocks, but there are some other interesting names to consider.
DK Metcalf would be a strong play given the 49ers' struggles against outside receivers if Geno Smith is actually healthy. That duo makes a good contrarian stacking option with Smith's roster percentage almost certain to be lower given the injury concerns.
Jayden Reed – $4,200
The Packers have some interesting injury riddles to unravel among their pass catchers.
Jayden Reed and Christian Watson are good to go despite spending some time on the injury report this week, but Luke Musgrave is on injured reserve while Dontayvion Wicks looks truly questionable with a concussion and knee injury.
Both of those injuries could be good news for Reed, who has been just a hair short of a full-time player over the last several weeks.
Despite that, he leads the team in catches in receiving yards over the last five games with three total touchdowns over that span.
Reed’s shallower average depth of target helps him get more catchable passes for Jordan Love and fits better with the way the offense is going than someone like Watson.
That has helped him notch 10.5 yards per target over the last five games, making him easily the most efficient of the Packers receivers.
Now the injury to Musgrave could open up more three-receiver sets, and Wicks missing would create an even bigger opportunity for Reed.
He will be popular given the price, but that can be mitigated by stacking him with Love.
Brandin Cooks – $4,500
Certain to be less popular than CeeDee Lamb and likely to be on fewer rosters than Jake Ferguson, Cooks offers a solid stacking partner for Dak Prescott chalk.
The 10-target game from Week 10 looks like an outlier as Cooks fell right back into the four-target range last week, but he has some things working in his favor in addition to lower rostership.
First, he is going to be on the field.
Cooks is consistently running a route on around 85% of the Cowboys dropbacks over the past several weeks. The same cannot be said for Michael Gallup or Jalen Tolbert.
Second, the Commanders are dreadful against outside receivers, where Cooks plays around two-thirds of his snaps.
Washington has given up 8.6 yards per target and seven touchdowns to outside receivers over the last five weeks.
They have also allowed the most catches of 20 or more air yards this season, giving up 21 catches for 770 yards and 10(!) touchdowns on deep throws.
Cooks has not been used down the field as much this season, but he still has six targets of 20 or more air yards over the last six games, opening up the possibility for a big play.
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Tight End
No tight end plays really stand out among the crowd, although it is likely Jake Ferguson will see his roster percentage spike as people look to stack Dak Prescott.
Tucker Kraft could also get some steam with Luke Musgrave officially on injured reserve, and Kraft has been targeted on 16.7% and 15.4% of his routes in the last two weeks.
Those targets have mostly been around the line of scrimmage, however, and the Packers have not utilized the tight end much in the scoring area.
Musgrave has zero goal-to-go targets and just one end zone target this season.
George Kittle – $6,000
Kittle’s price and boom-or-bust nature will likely keep his roster percentage low, which makes him an enticing play given his ceiling.
The story on Kittle over the last two seasons has been he booms when one of the top receivers is out and mostly busts when both Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel are healthy.
That has not been the case over the last two games.
Kittle went for 116 yards and a touchdown in Samuel’s first game back against the Jaguars, albeit on four targets.
More interestingly, he was targeted nine times against the Bucs, hauling in eight passes for 89 yards and another score.
Kittle actually has the second-most targets on the team over the last two games behind just Christian McCaffrey.
This matchup also sets up well for him.
The Seahawks have shut down outside receivers, allowing just 6.7 yards per target over the last five weeks (seventh), but they have been more vulnerable to tight ends.
They have given up 7.2 yards per target (17th) to tight ends over the last five weeks. More importantly, they have faced 47 targets over that span, the second-most in the league.
Kittle also has a team-high 25% target share against Cover-3 this season, which the Seahawks run on just over 40% of their coverage snaps.
There is always a chance Kittle is completely out of the game script, especially if an injured Geno Smith cannot keep the Seahawks close, but he carries slate-breaking upside.
