The season is winding to a close and it’s easy to look at the season from a macro sense, but it’s important to look at more recent trends, as well. We spend most of the season wishing we had more data and then when we have enough of it we take short-term trends for granted. 

These rankings are from the past month of the season. Some quick takeaways:

  • I had no idea the Jets would be this high in anything related to a positive stat. 
  • Unfortunately, a lot of the teams towards the top of the pass rate list aren’t on the main slate.
  • The Colts look like an offense that should be targeted but in a game against the hapless Texans, not sure what to expect.

Room to Run in LA

Los Angeles runs 67% of their plays from 11 personnel and 27% from 12 personnel. They have the highest rush success rate from 11 personnel of any team in the league. Enter rookie Cam Akers ($6,600). He’s slowly climbed the depth chart and now seems like he’s the feature back in this offense. Akers was on the field for a season-high snap-rate last week and did the most with all of the opportunities he was given. 

Now, the Rams face off with the worst teams in the league. At home. As 17 point favorites. This is a classic “don’t overthink it” spot. I’m going to be building around Akers and I don’t know how you can make a good football case against him. 

Shootout in Hotlanta 

The Bucs and Falcons face off for the first time this season on Sunday. Over the past month, both of these teams have started to pick up the pace, literally. Atlanta and Tampa Bay have gone from 7th and 12th to 5th and 2nd, respectively. 

That trend, coupled with the power of these two offenses, will make this a popular game. A week after being a healthy inactive, Leonard Fournette ($4,500) will be given the keys to the castle. He’s an obvious fade candidate in GPPs because of his ownership and the fact that he’s pretty objectively bad at, ya know, playing football. Hopefully, his chalkiness lowers the ownership on the pass-catchers for the Bucs because that’s what I’m most interested in this week. 

All three of them are in play, in my opinion, and I think that a double stack with Calvin Ridley ($8,200) as a bring-back option is the way to go. Julio Jones is out again this week. For whatever reason, Ridley was only rostered in about 10% of lineups last week despite the volume and Julio’s absence. 

Russell Gage ($4,700) is another option on the Falcons side. He’s seen 32 targets over the past four games. To be fair, he hasn’t had a true blowup game over that span, but at $4,700 you’re not asking for too much out of him to pay off. 

Sub-4k Wide Receivers

Lynn Bowden ($3,600) is coming off of a game where he saw nine targets and was on the field for over 70% of the offensive snaps. The Patriots have been low-key bad against the pass, too. 

All Bowden would really need is a busted play to get there at his price, and the Patriots have been exploited in that area this year. He’ll come with some ownership, so differentiating elsewhere is important. If you’re looking for a pivot off of him, Michael Gallup ($3,500) is underpriced again this week. He’s on the field for essentially the whole game and has seen at least five targets in every game since late October. 

Snaps, check. Targets, check. Matchup, check. I get that there are plenty of mouths to feed in that passing attack but, once again, receivers at this price just need one play. 

Will Fading Jalen…Hurts You?

Jalen Hurts ($5,900) came in and performed admirably last week. There was a definite spark on offense that wasn’t there with Carson Wentz for most of the season. All things considered, he seems a bit underpriced relative to his rushing upside. The issue with playing him is trying to find a good stacking partner with him. 

Hurts attempted passes to eight different receivers. You could stack with Dallas Goedert ($3,900) since he led the team in targets. Jalen Reagor ($4,400) is another option as he led Philadelphia in air yards. This game has some shootout potential, in my opinion, as it projects to be one of the highest paced games of the weekend. It’s hard to argue with such a cheap stack or even double-stack. In a week where you’ll want to play the Derrick Henry’s ($9,500) and Tyreek Hill's ($8,800) of the world, an Eagles stack has upside while also providing salary relief.