In addition to all our detailed fantasy football breakdowns here at Sharp Football Analysis, you can also do your own research using our NFL Stats and Visualized Data tools.
To help you out, each week we’ll use these tools to highlight a few potential DFS stacks and value plays you may want to target for the upcoming slate of games.
All references to DFS salaries and scoring will refer to DraftKings. All betting spreads and totals are from BetMGM.
DFS GAME STACK: DALLAS COWBOYS AT KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
This matchup between the Dallas Cowboys and Kansas City Chiefs carries a total of 55.5 一 5.5 points higher than any other game on this DFS slate.
Most of the players to target in this matchup are obvious 一 rostering either Dak Prescott ($7,200) or Patrick Mahomes ($7,600) is certainly a good place to start. Among the second-tier fantasy options, Cowboys tight end Dalton Schultz ($4,600) looks like a high-upside play this week.
Tight ends are averaging 8.5 yards per target outside the red zone against Kansas City this season, the 10th highest rate.
Another potential value in this game is Michael Gallup ($4,200) who saw five targets last week upon returning from the IR.
Gallup played just 53% of the Cowboys snaps, but his usage could increase in his second game back. In 2020, Gallup was on the field for at least 75% of the team’s offensive plays in 15 of 16 games.
On the Chiefs’ side of things, there isn’t an obvious value. However, Cowboys opponents rank in the top 10 in success rate allowed to both tight ends and receivers, so both Tyreek Hill ($8,200) and Travis Kelce ($7,100) are justifiable additions to a game stack.
DFS VALUE: PHILADELPHIA EAGLES WIDE RECEIVER QUEZ WATKINS
Quez Watkins ($3,700) has been a disappointing fantasy weapon this season, reaching double-digit points only once (Week 2 against the 49ers). However, this could be a matchup in which he has an elevated ceiling against New Orleans Saints.
Since Week 6, the Philadelphia Eagles have generated the fourth-highest explosive pass rate (percentage of attempts gaining 20 or more yards).
Despite the lack of fantasy production, Watkins is one of the Eagles' more dangerous weapons and has generated a 19% explosive play rate on the year, the highest rate among Philly’s wide receivers.
According to Sports Info Solutions, 49% of Watkins’s targets have been at least 10 yards downfield, which explains his potential for explosive plays.
The Saints defense has been fairly reliable, but has struggled to prevent big plays, making this a good matchup for Watkins.
New Orleans ranks 23rd in explosive pass rate allowed, giving up 34 pass plays of at least 20 yards (3.8 per game).
Watkins could also potentially see a boost in his usage rate this week if Dallas Goedert (concussion protocol) is forced to sit out.
DFS VALUE: CHICAGO BEARS TIGHT END COLE KMET
Since offensive coordinator Bill Lazor took over play-calling duties in Week 4, Cole Kmet has seen his targets rise almost every week, peaking at eight against the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 9.
This usage trend is certainly encouraging and he also gets a favorable matchup against the Baltimore Ravens, who have struggled to defend tight ends.
Outside the red zone, tight ends have commanded a 26% target share against Baltimore, while averaging 9.2 yards per target, the sixth-highest rate in the league.
Tight ends are averaging 8.3 targets per game against Baltimore, and with Kmet dominating the usage among the Chicago Bears tight ends, it’s safe to bet Kmet should see a strong workload again on Sunday.