In addition to all our detailed fantasy football breakdowns here at Sharp Football Analysis, you can also do your own research using our NFL Stats and Visualized Data tools.
To help you out, each week we’ll use these tools to highlight a few potential DFS stacks and value plays you may want to target for the upcoming slate of games.
All references to DFS salaries and scoring will refer to DraftKings. All betting spreads and totals are from BetMGM.
DFS GAME STACK: LOS ANGELES CHARGERS AT CINCINNATI BENGALS
The Los Angeles Chargers and Cincinnati Bengals rank fourth and ninth respectively in average combined score, so this matchup definitely has shootout potential and is worthy of game stacks.
On the Bengals side, receiver Ja’Marr Chase ($7,000) is an obvious player to target. Among players with at least 45 receptions, Chase ranks sixth in explosive catch rate, with 17% of his receptions producing at least 20 yards.
Against the Bengals’ defense, teams have had success targeting their running backs in the passing game. Running backs see a 28% target share against Cincinnati, the highest rate in the league, while producing a 47% success rate.
This trend bodes well for Austin Ekeler ($8,300), who has seen at least five targets in nine of his last 10 games, including a combined 12 receptions on 15 targets over his last two contests.
Either Joe Burrow ($6,300) or Justin Herbert ($6,700) is an option at quarterback. However, with the Bengals favored by three points, Herbert might be the safer option. In Chargers losses, Herbert has averaged 38.6 pass attempts per game.
DFS VALUE: SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS RUNNING BACK ELIJAH MITCHELL
Elijah Mitchell’s salary ($6,000) doesn’t fall into a range typically considered a value, but with 59 touches over his last two games combined, it's easy to envision a scenario where his production easily exceeds that cost.
When the 49ers are playing with a second half lead, they run the ball 67% of the time, the league’s third-highest rate and well above the NFL average of 56%.
Against the Los Angeles Rams and Minnesota Vikings (Mitchell’s last two opponents), the 49ers led nearly from start to finish, so it’s easy to see why his opportunities were inflated.
As three-point favorites against the Seattle Seahawks, it’s possible Mitchell could see a similarly strong workload.
Opponents have generated a 52% success rate running the ball against Seattle, ranked 23rd. So we should expect a strong performance from Mitchell if the game script works in his favor.
DFS VALUE: LOS ANGELES RAMS RUNNING BACK SONY MICHEL
Since joining the Rams this offseason, Sony Michel ($4,300) has failed to make an impact in the fantasy football world, but this week’s matchup against the Jacksonville Jaguars could be his opportunity.
Starting running back Darrell Henderson suffered a quad injury on Sunday, and is expected to be limited in practice this week, per The Athletic’s Jourdan Rodrigue.
It’s unclear if Henderson’s status for this week is in doubt, but it’s reasonable to assume the Rams would prefer to limit his workload if the game script allows. And since the Rams are 12.5-point favorites, that’s a definite possibility, which could lead to increased touches for Michel.
Michel failed to capitalize on his one start in Week 3 (10.9 fantasy points), but that came against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, the league’s stingiest run defense.
Jacksonville’s run defense has been surprisingly solid in recent weeks, ranking 10th overall in success rate allowed since Week 8. If Henderson is limited, however, Michel may still provide value based on a strong volume of touches.
If Henderson is healthy, rostering Michel will be a risk, but the salary is low enough he’s worth the gamble in a few lineups.
DFS VALUE: PITTSBURGH STEELERS QUARTERBACK BEN ROETHLISBERGER
In recent weeks, the Baltimore Ravens' run defense has reemerged as one of the most dominant units in the league, holding opponents to the fourth lowest success rate on the ground since Week 8. As a result, even run-heavy teams like the Cleveland Browns have been forced to throw at a elevated rate 一 Cleveland’s Kareem Hunt and Nick Chubb combined for just 15 carries last week.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have abandoned the run frequently this year, and Ben Roethlisberger ($5,000) has attempted 40 or more passes six times.
An increased pass volume doesn’t guarantee Roethlisberger a strong fantasy performance 一 he’s topped 20 points only once 一 but the salary reflects the risk.
Baltimore’s pass defense ranks 31st in explosive pass rate allowed, so there’s a chance Roethlisberger exceeds expectations with a few big plays downfield.
Pairing Roethlisberger with Diontae Johnson ($6,800) or Chase Claypool ($6,000) could be a stack worth pursuing due to the low combined salaries and likely low rostership.
