In addition to all our detailed fantasy football breakdowns here at Sharp Football Analysis, you can also do your own research using our NFL Stats and Visualized Data tools.
To help you out, each week we’ll use these tools to highlight a few potential DFS stacks and value plays you may want to target for the upcoming slate of games.
All references to DFS salaries and scoring will refer to DraftKings. All betting spreads and totals are from BetMGM.
DFS GAME STACK: DALLAS COWBOYS AT WASHINGTON FOOTBALL TEAM
There are a few games on the slate with a higher total than the Dallas Cowboys and Washington Football Team (49.5 points), but this game still has shootout potential.
This is their first meeting of 2021, but last year two of Washington’s four highest-scoring outputs came against the Cowboys.
Dallas ranks 29th in explosive pass rate (plays of 20 or more yards) allowed to wide receivers, which immediately puts Terry McLaurin ($7,000) on our radar.
McLaurin will likely find frequent matchups with Cowboys cornerback Trevon Diggs. And while Diggs has been a dangerous player to target in coverage at times, he’s also allowed big plays at a high rate. According to Sports Info Solutions, Diggs ranks dead last in yards per target allowed among cornerbacks (10.9).
On the Dallas side, Dak Prescott ($6,700) looks like a good value on his lowest salary since Week 4. Washington has allowed 22.8 fantasy points per game to quarterbacks, the highest rate in the league.
Pairing Prescott with CeeDee Lamb ($7,200) is always a viable tournament strategy. In games where Prescott reaches at least 25 fantasy points, Lamb averages 23.2 fantasy points.
DFS VALUE: TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS TIGHT END CAMERON BRATE
The Buffalo Bills are a great matchup for Rob Gronkowski ($6,000) but Cameron Brate ($2,700) is also worth a look.
Against the Bills’ defense, tight ends see a 26% target share (highest in the league) with a 60% success rate (ranked 28th), so there could be some opportunities for Brate as well.
In three games since Gronk returned to the field, Brate has 11 targets, so he’s still seeing enough usage to potentially provide good value on this salary.
Brate also sees 43% of his targets in the red zone and 16% in the end zone, so he’s always a reasonable bet to score.
Treat Brate strictly as a tournament dart throw due to his floor 一 he has two games with zero points 一 but the low salary could be helpful to squeeze in some of the stars on higher salaries.
DFS VALUE: NEW ORLEANS SAINTS RUNNING BACK TONY JONES JR.
Due to injuries, Tony Jones Jr. ($4,400) could see a significant role in the New Orleans Saints backfield this week against the New York Jets.
Mark Ingram is on the COVID list and may not be cleared to play on Sunday, while Alvin Kamara is questionable with a knee injury.
Though Kamara could return this week 一 he hasn’t played since Week 9 一 New Orleans will likely be cautious with his usage, especially if it builds a significant lead against the Jets.
In Week 12, Jones served as the Saints lead back against the Bills and laid an egg 一 2.7 fantasy points on 16 carries 一 but the Jets defense may allow for a bounce-back performance.
The Jets defense ranks 28th in explosive run rate allowed to running backs (plays for 10 or more yards) and dead last in explosive pass rate.
Jones was a healthy scratch last week when Ingram was active, so monitor the backfield situation before rostering him. It’s possible wide receiver Ty Montgomery ($3,300) will be a factor as well and might be worth a dart throw if Jones is inactive again.