In addition to all our detailed fantasy football breakdowns here at Sharp Football Analysis, you can also do your own research using our NFL Stats and Visualized Data tools.
To help you out, each week we’ll use these tools to highlight a few potential DFS stacks and value plays you may want to target for the upcoming slate of games.
All references to DFS salaries and scoring will refer to DraftKings. All betting spreads and totals are from BetMGM.
DFS GAME TO STACK: TENNESSEE TITANS AT PITTSBURGH STEELERS
Good luck finding the ideal game to stack this week. None of the games on the main slate carry a total over 50 points.
Since there aren’t any obvious potential shootouts to target, if you’re looking for a game stack, the best strategy may be to attempt to identify a predictable game script that could allow for strong performances from a few players.
Using this strategy, the Tennessee Titans and Pittsburgh Steelers could be a good stack, despite a total of just 41.5 points.
Tennessee is favored by 1.5 points and we know the Titans’ game plan will be to run the ball. With Derrick Henry still on the IR, that means D’Onta Foreman ($5,200) should see a strong workload in this matchup.
In an easy win over the Jacksonville Jaguars last week, Foreman finished with just 13 carries, but all 13 came in the first three quarters. Clearly, a larger workload is available in a closer game.
If Tennessee is able to control the ball on the ground, expect Pittsburgh to lean heavily on Diontae Johnson ($7,500). Johnson leads Pittsburgh with a 26% target share this season.
According to Sports Info Solutions, Johnson also sees a higher aDOT when trailing (8.2) than when playing with the lead (7.1), giving his projected production a slight boost if Pittsburgh is playing from behind.
This Foreman-Johnson stack should be reserved for tournaments, because a different game script could tank both their values, but it’s a reasonable strategy to take in tournaments given the potential for each player to dominate their offensive game plan in the right situation.
DFS VALUE: ARIZONA CARDINALS RUNNING BACK ENO BENJAMIN
Arizona Cardinals running back James Conner is listed as day-to-day with an ankle injury and Chase Edmonds has yet to be activated from the IR, which could pave the way for a significant role for backup Eno Benjamin ($4,400).
If Benjamin is the starter, he’s an obvious player to roster on that salary, but he could be an option even if Conner or Edmonds is active. With both running backs dealing with injuries, Arizona would likely prefer to limit their workload 一 and that should be possible as 13-point favorites against the Detroit Lions.
When playing with a lead of a field goal or more, Arizona runs the ball 54% of the time, the 10th highest rate in the league.
This should create plenty of opportunities for Benjamin, assuming Arizona takes care of business and is in control of this game in the second half.
Benjamin could see some action in the passing game as well, if his role is expanded. Although he has yet to make an impact in that area with Arizona, during his final year at Arizona State in 2019, he averaged 6.1 yards per target on 53 targets, according to Sports Info Solutions.
DFS VALUE: MIAMI DOLPHINS RUNNING BACK MALCOLM BROWN
Malcolm Brown ($4,000) hasn’t played since Week 7, but was recently activated off the IR and returned to practice on Wednesday. With Myles Gaskin, Salvon Ahmed, and Phillip Lindsay all in COVID protocols, it looks like Brown could be forced into a significant role in the backfield, with Duke Johnson ($4,000) also potentially factoring in.
This should be a great matchup for whoever sees the bulk of the carries for the Miami Dolphins this week against a struggling New York Jets defense.
The Jets rank 27th in explosive run rate allowed (percentage of carries for 10 or more yards), so we should expect some big plays from the Miami run game.
The Jets’ front seven simply doesn’t create enough of a push to slow down anyone’s run game. According to Sports Info Solutions, New York is allowing 2.5 yards before contact per attempt, the NFL’s second-worst rate.
DFS VALUE: LOS ANGELES RAMS TIGHT END TYLER HIGBEE
The Seattle Seahawks defense has struggled to defend tight ends this season, which could allow for Tyler Higbee ($4,000) to see an increased role in this matchup.
Seattle has allowed a 62% success rate on pass attempts to tight ends, the worst rate in the NFL.
In the last meeting between these teams, Higbee had just two receptions on two targets, but Robert Woods was still healthy at that point in the season. In this meeting, Los Angeles will be without Woods and likely without Odell Beckham Jr., who is in COVID protocols.
Since Higbee tested positive for COVID last week and has since been activated, he is extremely unlikely to test positive again and should not be considered a risk to miss Sunday’s game despite the increasing positive cases on the Rams’ roster.