In addition to all our detailed fantasy football breakdowns here at Sharp Football Analysis, you can also do your own research using our NFL Stats and Visualized Data tools.
To help you out, each week we’ll use these tools to highlight a few potential DFS stacks and value plays you may want to target for the upcoming slate of games.
All references to DFS salaries and scoring will refer to DraftKings. All betting spreads and totals are from BetMGM.
DFS GAME STACK: KANSAS CITY CHIEFS AT CINCINNATI BENGALS
Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs are almost always a candidate for game stacks, and Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati Bengals proved their explosive potential last week against the Baltimore Ravens.
With a total of 49.5, this is projected to be the second-highest scoring game on the Sunday slate.
On the Bengals side, Joe Mixon ($7,500) looks like an ideal player to roster. Cincinnati will likely attempt to control the ball on the ground and limit the Chiefs’ possessions.
The Bengals should find success on the ground based on the Chiefs’ struggles against 11 personnel, the Bengals’ preferred run-game formation. Cincinnati runs the ball from 11 personnel 64% of the time, and the Chiefs are among the league’s worst run defenses versus 11 personnel, allowing a success rate of 59%.
On the Chiefs’ side, Tyreek Hill ($8,300) has a nice ceiling against a Bengals’ defense capable of giving up big plays in the passing game.
According to Sports Info Solutions, Cincinnati allows 3.2 receptions per game at 15 or more yards downfield, the fourth-most in the league. Hill leads Kansas City with 35 targets of at least 15 yards.
DFS VALUE: LAS VEGAS RAIDERS TIGHT END FOSTER MOREAU
Filling in for the injured Darren Waller, Las Vegas Raiders tight end Foster Moreau has emerged as a significant factor in the offense in recent weeks. Over his last three games, Moreau is third on the team with 19 targets.
Moreau’s usage is especially relevant this week against an Indianapolis Colts’ defense that has struggled to defend tight ends. Opponents have taken notice of this weakness in the Indy defense, and are targeting tight ends at a league-high 26% rate.
Keep an eye on the status of Waller before rostering Moreau, because it is possible he returns this week. However, his status is still up in the air and it’s likely he’s less than 100% healthy even if he suits up.
DFS VALUE: JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS RUNNING BACK DARE OGUNBOWALE
With James Robinson and Carlos Hyde on the IR, Dare Ogunbowale ($5,100) has taken over in the Jacksonville Jaguars backfield. Following Robinson’s injury last week, Ogunbowale played all but one snap.
The New England Patriots have a solid run defense, but they allow the 14th most fantasy points per game to running backs because of their role in the passing game. 24% of pass attempts against the Patriots are targeted at running backs, tied for the league’s highest rate.
Additionally, running backs average 6.8 yards per target against New England, the sixth-highest rate in the NFL.
This trend bodes well for Ogunbowale who saw four targets last week, and also saw five targets in the previous two games while serving as Robinson’s backup.
Expect a high usage rate for Ogunbowale in this matchup, and if he can reach the end zone at least once, his output should make him a great value on this salary.