The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Week 9 matchup between the Bills and Dolphins.
Find a breakdown of every Week 9 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.
| Miami | Rank | @ | Buffalo | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Spread | -6 | ||
| 21.75 | Implied Total | 27.75 | ||
| 13.9 | 32 | Points/Gm | 28.8 | 5 |
| 22.4 | 16 | Points All./Gm | 18.3 | 6 |
| 65.3 | 2 | Plays/Gm | 57.8 | 29 |
| 56.4 | 2 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 62.1 | 17 |
| 4.9 | 25 | Off. Yards/Play | 5.8 | 9 |
| 5.3 | 14 | Def. Yards/Play | 5.3 | 12 |
| 46.61% | 12 | Rush% | 48.92% | 8 |
| 53.39% | 21 | Pass% | 51.08% | 25 |
| 49.87% | 28 | Opp. Rush % | 40.24% | 7 |
| 50.13% | 5 | Opp. Pass % | 59.76% | 26 |
- Buffalo is 12-2 against Miami with Josh Allen as their starting quarterback, which includes a 7-1 record in games with Tua Tagovailoa starting for the Dolphins.
- Buffalo is averaging 1.9 more yards per passing play than their opponent, 2nd in the NFL.
- The Bills have allowed two passing plays of 30 or more yards, the fewest in the league.
- 11.9% of Buffalo's passing plays have gained 20 or more yards, the highest rate in the league.
- The Bills have allowed a league-low 1.6 sacks plus turnovers per game on offense.
- Miami averages 2 sacks plus takeaways per game on defense, tied for the fewest in the NFL.
- Miami has converted 59.5% (25-of-42) of their third downs with Tua Tagovailoa on the field compared to 22.2% (12-of-54) with him off the field.
Trust = spike production for that player
Quarterback
Josh Allen: Allen has thrown for over 8 yards per pass attempt with multiple passing touchdowns in three straight games.
Up to 7.9 Y/A on the season, that mark would match a career-high for Allen.
If it sticks, his 6.3% touchdown rate would be his highest since 2020.
The only nit to pick with Allen to this point is that he is running less to open the season and sharing goal-line carries.
Allen’s 5.6 rushes for 25.5 yards per game would be career lows.
He does have 3 rushing touchdowns, but we have seen the running backs have a more significant role in the running game near the end zone this season.
Those are minor quibbles since Allen is the QB6 in points per game (19.9).
You are playing Allen as a front-end QB1.
He has a great history against Miami, throwing 37 touchdowns to 9 interceptions over 14 starts.
Allen was limited to only throwing the ball a season-low 19 times when these teams played in Week 2 due to the game script.
He was 9-of-13 for 8.3 Y/A and a touchdown in the first half of that game, but with Buffalo way ahead on the scoreboard, Allen only had 6 more dropbacks.
Miami has allowed multiple passing touchdowns once this season, but they have not played a good quarterback schedule and had a stretch where their offense was not competitive.
Because of that, they have faced 27 pass attempts per game, the second-fewest in the NFL.
Buffalo could get way ahead again, but if they score points, Allen is a good bet to be involved.
On Sunday, Miami allowed Kyler Murray 22.2 points and his first 300-yard passing game of the season.
Tua Tagovailoa: Tua was back on the field this week after missing the previous four games since these teams last played in Week 2.
Tagovailoa completed 28-of-38 passes for 234 yards with a touchdown against the Cardinals on Sunday.
While his return improved this offense, we still lacked fantasy output, which has been a regular occurrence with Tua despite the upside this offense has shown over the past few seasons.
Tua ended the week as QB20 (14.7 points).
He has been a QB1 scorer in 11-of-33 starts under Mike McDaniel.
Tua’s 6.2 yards per pass attempt were 28th last week while his 5.1 air yards per attempt were 30th.
Only 18.4% of his passes were 10 yards or further downfield (29th).
This is a tough spot to plan for a spike week despite this game's shootout appeal as a potential outcome.
I would prefer to use Tua as a floor-based QB2 here and take on any spike week that happens to come along.
Sean McDermott has had Tua’s number.
Tagovailoa has completed 61.9% of his passes for 6.8 Y/A with 7 touchdowns and 10 interceptions over eight starts against the Bills.
With McDaniel and this version of the offense, Tua has been held to fewer than 200 yards passing in four of those five games with 6 touchdowns and 6 interceptions.
Before leaving the Week 2 matchup with his concussion, Tua was 17-of-25 for 145 yards (5.8 Y/A) with a touchdown and 3 interceptions.
Running Back
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Learn MoreMore Week 9 Fantasy Breakdowns From The Worksheet:
| Matchup | Time |
|---|---|
| Texans @ Jets -- FREE | Thursday Night Football |
| Cowboys @ Falcons | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Dolphins @ Bills | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Raiders @ Bengals | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Chargers @ Browns | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Patriots @ Titans | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Commanders @ Giants | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Saints @ Panthers | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Broncos @ Ravens | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Jaguars @ Eagles | Sunday -- 4:05 p.m. ET |
| Bears @ Cardinals | Sunday -- 4:05 p.m. ET |
| Lions @ Packers | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Rams @ Seahawks | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Colts @ Vikings | Sunday Night Football |
| Bucs @ Chiefs -- FREE | Monday Night Football |