As part of the Sharp Football Draft Kit, Raymond Summerlin is posting a fantasy football preview for all 32 NFL teams.
This preview includes advanced stats, the fantasy football outlook for Tua Tagovailoa, Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, Devon Achane, Raheem Mostert, and every other notable Dolphin, and in-depth analysis of the coaching staff, passing game, and rushing attack.
Find a link to every team preview in our Draft Kit Hub.
Highlights:
- Miami was fourth in EPA per play in the weeks Tua Tagovailoa started and sixth in points per drive. They led the league in yards per play during those 13 weeks.
- The targets in this passing game were dominated by Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle last season. That pair combined for a 51% target share. No other Dolphin saw more than 10% of the targets. The next two highest target shares belonged to Mike Gesicki and Trent Sherfield, who are no longer on the team.
- In 2022, Waddle played only 19% of his snaps in the slot after playing 54% of his plays there as a rookie, his average depth of target jumped up from 7.1 to 12.1, and he averaged 18.1 yards per catch after gaining 9.8 yards per reception in 2021.
2022 Dolphins Stats (NFL Rank):
- Points: 397 (11th)
- Total Offense: 6,197 (6th)
- Plays: 1,009 (27th)
- Offensive TDs: 42 (9th)
- Points Per Drive: 2.13 (9th)
- EPA+ Per Play: 5.4 (7th)
- Situation Neutral Pace: 31.42 seconds (19th)
2023 Dolphins Coaching Staff:
- Head Coach: Mike McDaniel
- Offensive Coordinator: Frank Smith
Miami will have a new defensive coordinator in Vic Fangio – a great hire – but the offensive staff remains intact.
While the end of the season left a lot to be desired, Miami’s offense was strong with Tua Tagovailoa healthy.
Miami was fourth in EPA per play in the weeks Tua started and sixth in points per drive. They led the league in yards per play during those 13 weeks.
Mike McDaniel proved he can thrive outside the comfy confines of a Kyle Shanahan offense.
While there will be warranted concerns about Tagovailoa’s ability to stay on the field moving forward, this offense should be able to produce fantasy points for its two star receivers.
2022 Dolphins Passing Stats:
- Dropbacks: 637 (15th)
- Neutral Pass Rate: 53.6% (10th)
- Pass Rate Over Expected: 1.9% (7th)
- Pressure Rate Allowed: 25% (27th)
- ESPN Pass Block Win Rate: 55% (24th)
2023 Dolphins Passing Game Preview:
The Dolphins will face the second-toughest passing schedule based on 2022 efficiency numbers.
- QB: Tua Tagovailoa, Mike White
- WR: Tyreek Hill, Chosen Anderson
- WR: Jaylen Waddle, Erik Ezukanma
- WR: Cedrick Wilson, Braxton Berrios
- TE: Durham Smythe, Eric Saubert
Tua Tagovailoa’s season was ruined by at least two concussions, limiting him to 13 games.
Reports on his health have been good this offseason, but there has to be concern about Tua’s ability to stay on the field moving forward.
What he did when on the field last year was spectacular.
He finished third in EPA per play among qualifying quarterbacks, second in touchdown rate, and led the league with 8.9 yards per attempt.
He was the QB10 in per-game scoring after finishing as the QB20 in 2021.
That QB10 showing is a bit inflated, though. He has a massive six-touchdown game against the Ravens in Week 2, but he only topped 18 fantasy points in three other games. Two of those performances came against bottom-10 pass defenses.
Tagovailoa is staring down the second-toughest passing schedule based on 2022 efficiency. 11 of their opponents were 12th or better in defensive pass efficiency last season.
He also was much more efficient in the intermediate passing range than his career average entering last season.
Tagovailoa completed 66.9% of his passes between 10 and 20 yards with a 6.8% touchdown rate and 0.74 EPA per play. Those numbers were first, fifth, and first among qualifying quarterbacks.
Entering last season, he had completed 46% of his passes in that range with a 0.7% touchdown rate and -0.02 EPA per play.
Mike McDaniel’s offense played a role in that improvement, but there may be some regression in the area of the field that made up 47% of his yardage production and 36% of his touchdown production last season.
He also has averaged 8.5 rushing yards per game thus far in his career. He does have six career rushing touchdowns despite not rushing for a score last season, but Tua is not going to offer much with his legs.
Even coming off a breakout season, there are reasons for fantasy concern for Tagovailoa even without considering the health aspect.
The targets in this passing game were dominated by Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle last season.
That pair combined for a 51% target share. No other Dolphin saw more than 10% of the targets.
The next two highest target shares belonged to Mike Gesicki and Trent Sherfield, who are no longer on the team.
Hill’s first season with the Dolphins could not have gone much better. He averaged 3.21 yards per route run (1st), 10.1 yards per target (4th), and 1,710 receiving yards (2nd).
He was the WR3 in per-game scoring despite a significant non-Tua split. Hill averaged 18.3 half-PPR points in games Tagovailoa started and 12.6 in the four games without him.
Hill did overshoot his expected touchdown total, and he benefited from Tagovailoa’s outstanding play in the intermediate areas of the field.
Both of those things raise some regression concerns, and Hill suffered last season without his starting quarterback. He could struggle similarly this season if Mike White is forced to start games.
Hill should continue to dominate targets, however, and has already proven he can be a top-five fantasy option in this offense.
Waddle had even worse non-Tagovailoa splits, going from 14.6 half-PPR points per game (10th) with his starting quarterback to 8.1 (49th) without him.
On the bright side, the new coaching staff completely changed Waddle’s usage, and he responded with an outstanding season overall.
He played only 19% of his snaps in the slot after playing 54% of his plays there as a rookie, his average depth of target jumped up from 7.1 to 12.1, and he averaged 18.1 yards per catch after gaining 9.8 yards per reception in 2021.
That usage gives him spike week upside even if he is not getting as large a share of the targets as Hill.
It also led to some volatility, however.
Waddle finished five weeks as a top-10 scoring receiver, but he had seven more outside the top 35, and four of those were WR60 or worse.
The WR11 in early drafts, Waddle represents the beginning of a questionable tier of fantasy receivers that includes names like DeVonta Smith and Tee Higgins.
All three of those receivers offer immense contingency value should the No. 1 on the roster go down, and all three passing games are good enough to support two quality fantasy options.
However, their production might end up being too volatile to justify that cost, especially in the case of Waddle and Higgins.
As mentioned above, no other Dolphin saw more than 10% of the targets last season, and the two highest target earners are no longer around.
No other Miami pass catcher is going inside the top 200 players, and it is easy to understand why.
Perhaps someone like Chosen Anderson or Durham Smythe steps up. Perhaps Cedrick Wilson finally justifies his cost. Perhaps Braxton Berrios proves to be a playmaker out of the slot.
All of those are unlikely scenarios as long as Hill and Waddle are healthy.
2022 Dolphins Rushing Stats:
- Rushing Attempts – Scrambles: 372 (30th)
- Yards Before Contact Per Attempt: 2.6 (21st)
- Football Outsiders’ Adjusted Line Yards: 4.61 (8th)
- ESPN’s Run Block Win Rate: 71% (16th)
2023 Dolphins Running Game Preview:
The Dolphins will face the toughest rushing schedule based on 2022 efficiency numbers.
- RB: Raheem Mostert, Jeff Wilson, Devon Achane
- OL: Terron Armstead, Liam Eichenberg, Connor Williams, Robert Hunt, Austin Jackson
*Preseason Update: With the top two backs sitting, Devon Achane played behind Myles Gaskin and Salvon Ahmed and continued to see snaps in the third quarter. This could be an example of coaches forcing a rookie to earn it, but Achane also did not show well with 25 yards on 10 carries, although he did make a few catches. Achane continues to look overpriced.
This is one of the more difficult backfields to predict this season, and it does not help they are scheduled to face the toughest slate of rushing defenses based on 2022 numbers.
After bringing back everyone in free agency, the Dolphins invested a third-round pick in Devon Achane.
Achane had a productive three-year career at Texas A&M, posting 1,298 yards from scrimmage and 11 touchdowns in his final season.
He also wowed at the Combine with 4.32 speed, something that was evident on his college tape.
Unfortunately, he measured in at just 5-foot-9, 188 pounds. Backs of that size do not have a great fantasy track record in part because they usually are not given large workloads.
Of course, there have been exceptions, and Achane was the clear lead back in college and actually good after contact.
Interestingly, his measurables are very close to Raheem Mostert’s Pro Day numbers (5-foot-10, 195 pounds, 4.38 forty) back in 2015.
As for Mostert, he and Jeff Wilson shared carries almost evenly after Wilson joined the team at the trade deadline.
Wilson was great at avoiding negative plays, failing to gain yardage on just 11.9% of his Dolphins carries.
Mostert was more explosive, gaining 10 or more yards on 16.3% of his carries after Wilson joined.
Despite those good underlying numbers, Mostert was the RB32 per game over the final nine weeks, and Wilson was the RB33.
Now Achane is also in the mix, and neither Mostert nor Wilson has a great health track record.
The good news is that while Achane is overpriced as a top 40 back, Mostert and Wilson are both going outside the top 50 RBs and the top 150 overall.
Taking shots on Mostert and Wilson late in drafts make sense for volume drafters, but it is tough to know how this situation will play out, and it is possible if not likely it is a value-sapping committee all season.
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