Dolphins vs Jets Fantasy Football Worksheet, Week 11

The Worksheet, a fantasy football overview by Rich Hribar, breaking down everything you need to know for the Week 11 Miami Dolphins at New York Jets Sunday afternoon game.

• The Jets have been outscored 168-47 in the first half this season (-121 points), the largest differential in the league.
• The Jets have trailed for 94.3% of their second half snaps on offense, the highest rate in the league.
• The Jets are allowing 5.2 sacks plus turnovers per game, the most in the league.
• 88.9% (16-of-18) of the Miami offensive touchdowns have come from inside of the red zone, third in the league.
• The Jets are allowing a league-high 3.1 red zone touchdowns per game.
• The Jets are allowing a league-high 73.7 explosive rushing yards per game. 
• The Dolphins are averaging just 23.4 explosive rushing yards per game, 31st in the league.
• Just 28.2% of the Miami rushing attempts have gained five or more yards, ahead of only the Texans (23.0%). League average is 35.2%.
• The Jets (52) and the Dolphins (50) have allowed the most offensive plays of 20-plus yards in the league, although the Dolphins have allowed just four over their past two games.

Trust = spike production for that player

Quarterback

Tua Tagovailoa (TRUST): After a weird scenario where Tagovailoa was not able to start the past two games due to a fractured finger but was the backup and had to play last Thursday night, he is back in as the starter this week.

Tagovailoa has been the QB15 or better in each of his past three starts and has been a reliable streamer in these matchup-based spots this season when we have had to call on him. Tagovailoa has faced two teams in the bottom-10 in EPA as a pass defense in the Jaguars (21.4 points) and the Falcons (26.5 points). The Jets are 32nd in EPA as a pass defense and have allowed a QB1 scorer in five straight games with 18 or more fantasy points allowed to six straight passers.

Joe Flacco: Zach Wilson practiced in full last Friday and the team gave Mike White another shot on Sunday to see what they had.  White then wilted last week as he threw for 5.7 yards per pass attempt and threw four interceptions against the Bills. It was White’s third appearance with multiple interceptions. 

Then Robert Saleh has said that Wilson still needs to work his way back and the team is going with Joe Flacco this week, who was not even active after the team traded for him behind Josh Johnson, who also had a top-5 scoring week. Do we really know what is going on here?

For as bad as Miami’s defense has been this year, they have been better of late, allowing 5.7 yards per pass attempt over their past three games against Josh Allen, Tyrod Taylor, and Lamar Jackson. You also be prepared to play against the blitz against Miami, who is blitzing 38.2% of the time, the second-highest rate in the league. Flacco had a start in this spot a year ago with the Jets under that regime and posted 5.4 fantasy points.

Running Back

Myles Gaskin (TRUST): This one is coming from a usage and matchup standpoint, but the Dolphins have shown that they really cannot run on anyone so far. Gaskin has rushed for just 3.4 yards per carry this season and has rushed 34 times for 65 yards the past two weeks.

Gaskin was in this same spot two weeks ago and racked up a season-high 26 touches, but for just 57 total yards against a Houston defense that is right next to the Jets in expected points added against the run. 

That said, it is hard not to elevate Gaskin to RB2 status this week given that he has 86.7% and 78.9% of the backfield touches the past two games and the Jets have just been handing out touchdowns to opposing running backs. Running backs have now scored a league-high 20 touchdowns against the Jets, accounted for 62.5% of the touchdowns scored against them, also a league-high. Even against a struggling Buffalo rushing game, they allowed three rushing scores.

Michael Carter: Carter piled up 20 touches last week and although he managed to gain just 82 yards, he tacked on a 1-yard touchdown run and four receptions to produce a solid fantasy line. Carter has run into two of the toughest running draws in the past two games against the Colts and Bills, so his 19 carries for 88 yards over those games was to be expected to a degree.

This is another team that has just not run the ball well on just about everyone, but Miami is a much better draw here, ranking 19th in rushing points allowed per game (13.6) to backs while also allowing 5.2 receptions per game (17th) to backfields. Carter remains a floor-based RB2.

Ty Jonhson: Johnson handled just 21.2% of the backfield touches with Tevin Coleman getting back on the field last week, his lowest rate in a game since Week 4. Johnson still managed to see a season-high eight targets but managed to produce just 36 yards on his seven touches. Johnson has now had single-digit touches in every game but two this season. 

One thing to watch here for the potential starting quarterback news is that Jonhson has seen 24 targets the past four games with Wilson out of the lineup as opposed to seeing 13 targets over the opening five games of the season. If Wilson is back under center, Johnson is a start only if you have to option while he can hold onto low-ceiling FLEX status in PPR leagues if Wilson remains sidelined. 

Wide Receiver

Jaylen Waddle: Waddle leads the Dolphins with 22.2% of the team targets, which has helped him establish a soft floor for fantasy since Miami has had so many wide receivers sidelined. Waddle has been a WR3 or better in four of his past five games played with 49 targets in those games. 

The only thorn is Miami is forced the ball quickly given their offensive line and Waddle has a 7.0-yard depth of target, which has limited his upside. Waddle has not had more than 83 yards in a game yet and his 35-yard catch last week was his long reception in a game since Week 1. Waddle has just three receptions this season on throws 15 yards downfield or further. 

The Jets have only faced 18.2 targets per game to opposing wide receivers (sixth-fewest), but they are allowing 9.2 yards per target (30th) and 14.2 yards per catch (28th) on those looks. New York has allowed four top-24 scoring wideouts over their past four games, leaving Waddle as a floor-based WR2 in PPR formats and a WR2/WR3 option in non-PPR formats with matchup upside.

Corey Davis: Davis returned to the lineup last week after missing the previous two games and was right back to his usual workload. Davis caught 5-of-7 targets for 93 yards, the third time this season he has cleared 47 yards in a game. Davis ran a route on 87.8% of the dropbacks but has topped out at seven targets in all but one game.

Miami has stepped up the past two weeks limiting Brandin Cooks to 6-56-0 on 13 targets and Marquise Brown to 6-37-0 on 13 targets and have climbed up to 13th in yards allowed per target (7.9 yards) to opposing wideouts. They still do rank 16th in touchdowns allowed (12) to the position, but Davis is still only a WR4/FLEX play.

Jamison Crowder: Crowder has topped 38 yards receiving in just two of his six games played, but the Jets are still committed to him as a full-time asset as he led the team in route participation (91.8%) again last weekend. If looking for a silver lining in using Crowder as a PPR FLEX out of need, Miami has allowed a handful of big games to opposing slot receivers in Cole Beasley (10-110-0), Hunter Renfrow (5-77-1), and Jamal Agnew (5-78-0).

Elijah Moore: Moore has been a top-36 scoring wideout in each of the past four weeks, but he is still hardly being used, forcing him to get by on scoring four times over that span. Moore still ran a route on 51.0% of the dropbacks last week and has seen 15.4% of the targets in each of those games. That type of usage makes no sense at this stage of the season for the Jets, but also leaves Moore as a boom-or-bust FLEX.

Tight End

Mike Gesicki: Gesicki led the team with seven targets last Thursday night, but sadly did not record a reception. Gesicki does still have seven or more targets in all five of the games DeVante Parker has been absent with 19.6% of the team looks in those games. Despite the down week, that type of volume is tough to move away from as a TE1 option. Especially since Tagovailoa has delivered in these streaming spots. The Jets have not been good against opposing tight ends, allowing 8.6 yards per target (28th), a 72,6% catch rate (22nd), and a 6.5% touchdown rate (20th). 

More Week 11 Fantasy breakdowns from The Worksheet:

NE at ATL| GB at MIN | BAL at CHI | WFT at CAR | IND at BUF | DET at CLE | SF at JAX | HOU at TEN | MIA at NYJ | NO at PHI | CIN at LVR | ARI at SEA | DAL at KC | PIT at LAC | NYG at TB