The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Week 12 matchup between the Dolphins and Jets on Black Friday.
Find a breakdown of every Week 12 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.
| Miami | Rank | @ | NY Jets | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -10.0 | Spread | 10.0 | ||
| 25.0 | Implied Total | 15.0 | ||
| 30.5 | 1 | Points/Gm | 15.0 | 30 |
| 23.8 | 23 | Points All./Gm | 20.4 | 11 |
| 62.1 | 20 | Plays/Gm | 59.4 | 28 |
| 63.2 | 14 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 67.1 | 28 |
| 7.0 | 1 | Off. Yards/Play | 4.6 | 29 |
| 5.1 | 12 | Def. Yards/Play | 4.7 | 4 |
| 41.06% | 19 | Rush% | 36.36% | 29 |
| 58.94% | 14 | Pass% | 63.64% | 4 |
| 41.30% | 13 | Opp. Rush % | 48.88% | 31 |
| 58.70% | 20 | Opp. Pass % | 51.12% | 2 |
- Miami games are averaging a league-high 54.3 combined points per game.
- Jets games are averaging a league-low 35.4 combined points per game.
- The Jets have not covered the point spread over their past four games (0-3-1), the longest active streak in the league.
- The Jets have been outscored by 52 points in the first quarter this season, the largest differential in the league.
- The Jets have now converted a league-low 22.9% (30-of-131) of their third down plays, the lowest rate in the league. The league average is 38.8%.
- Just 36.5% of the Miami set of downs have reached third down, the lowest rate in the league. The league average is 47.8%.
- Miami has the most offensive plays of 10 or more yards (162).
- The Jets have the fewest offensive plays of 10 or more yards (96).
- Miami is averaging a league-high 7.2 yards per play on first down.
- The Jets are allowing a league-low 4.1 yards per play on first down.
Trust = spike production for that player
Quarterback
Tua Tagovailoa: Closing Week 11 as QB12 (17.6 points), Tagovailoa has now been inside of the top-10 weekly scoring quarterbacks just once over his past seven games.
Despite delivering just one front-end scoring week over that stretch, Tua was solid enough on Sunday, throwing for 325 yards, his most in a game since the season opener.
It was his fifth 300-yard game this season, which is tied for the league lead.
Tua did not play in either game against the Jets last season, so we will finally get to see this offense face the challenge of the New York defense with their quarterback.
Miami scored 17 and 11 points in their games against the Jets last season.
The Jets’ defense finally broke last week, allowing a QB6 (22.5 points) scoring week to Josh Allen. They allowed three touchdown passes, the most in a game against them since Week 3 of last season.
The 8.6 yards per pass attempt allowed to Allen was the first time that a passer threw for more than 7.0 yards per pass attempt against them this year.
The Jets are third in the NFL in terms of pressure rate (41.9%).
Tua has only been pressured on 23.6% of his dropbacks (the second-lowest rate in the league), but when you can disrupt him is when we see defenses have success.
Tagovailoa is completing 36.7% fewer passes against pressure than when kept clean, the largest discrepancy for a passer in the league facing pressure and not facing pressure.
You do not have to rush out to stream for Tua in 1QB formats, but given that Tua has been operating as a back-end QB1 and this defense has only allowed two quarterbacks to finish inside of the top 10 this season, he is in that fringe QB1 area.
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