Exploiting Default Fantasy Football Rankings, 2024

The default draft rankings are a major driver of ADP variation across the biggest fantasy football sites: ESPN, Yahoo, and NFL.com.

The average fantasy football player relies heavily on each site’s draft software to determine when a player should be drafted.

While that is understandable, it can create value opportunities if one of the major sites is considerably higher or lower on a player than the industry average.

Those rankings can also create a different draft flow for each position.

For example, some sites value running backs more heavily, leading to second-tier and “dead zone” running backs going much earlier than their industry ADP.

Knowing about these differences creates an opportunity to get ahead of positional runs and make value picks.

• ESPN
• Yahoo
• NFL

Sharp Football Fantasy Football Rankings:

• Top 250 Rankings
• Quarterback Rankings 
• Running Back Rankings
• Wide Receiver Rankings
• Tight End Rankings

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Exploiting ESPN's Default Fantasy Football Rankings

The top of the draft board at ESPN could end up being more running back heavy than at other sites.

As most do, ESPN has Christian McCaffrey atop their default rankings, but they have Breece Hall at the No. 2 spot and Bijan Robinson at No. 3.

Both backs are routinely drafted in the first round, so it is not a major difference, but both backs are going earlier than their overall PPR ADP.

That trend continues toward the end of the first round with both Jonathan Taylor and Saquon Barkley ranked inside the top 10, but it really picks up in the second round with Kyren Williams, Isiah Pacheco, and Travis Etienne all in the top 17.

That is a pretty large departure from what we saw all summer in best ball drafts. Pacheco particularly is ranked much higher than we have him and his PPR ADP.

Those who got comfortable starting drafts with two receivers and still getting someone like Pacheco or Derrick Henry in the third round likely will have to change their approach at ESPN.

This running back disparity continues down the board, which is why you find so many running backs in the who we have ranked lower table below.

For a lot of backs, that is less a reflection on how we feel about them compared to others a the position and more a reflection on how we are approaching fantasy drafts this season.

The same is true of the high number of receivers in the ranked higher table.

It is the opposite for tight ends at ESPN, with Sam LaPorta and Travis Kelce both ranked a round below their ADP.

Those overall rankings have not as dramatically affected ADP at ESPN, but that could change as we get deeper into draft season.

Our ranking of the top two tight ends nearly matches where they are at ESPN, offering the possibility of getting some shares of the elite options at the position at a more palatable cost in ESPN leagues.

Notable Players Outside ESPN's Top 150 Fantasy Football Rankings:

• Romeo Doubs, WR, Packers
• Dontayvion Wicks, WR, Packers
• Ray Davis, RB, Bills
• Brandin Cooks, WR, Cowboys
• Jahan Dotson, WR, Commanders
• Rico Dowdle, RB, Cowboys
• Tyrone Tracy Jr, RB, Giants
• Jared Goff, QB, Lions
• Tua Tagovailoa, QB, Dolphins

Players We Have Ranked Higher:

Players We Have Ranked Lower:

Exploiting Yahoo's Default Fantasy Football Rankings

Perhaps the most notable overarching theme for the Yahoo ranks, which has tricked down to their ADP, is the elevation of quarterbacks drafted in the QB2 range.

That is especially true of pass-first QB2 options, which is a group we traditionally fade relative to consensus and ADP.

Jared Goff, Tua Tagovailoa, Trevor Lawrence, Kirk Cousins, Matthew Stafford, and Justin Herbert stand out as more pass-dependent QB2 options who are likely to go much earlier in Yahoo drafts.

Frankly, these players should not be drafted in standard one quarterback leagues – there is little reason to leave a draft in those formats with more than one quarterback.

As is likely to be the case once ADP transitions more to traditional leagues rather than redraft, running backs are pushed up higher in Yahoo drafts than they have been at Underdog.

Specifically, Derrick Henry, Kyren Williams, Isiah Pacheco, and Travis Etienne stand out as being ranked well ahead of their best ball ADP.

Yahoo’s rankings don’t differ too much from ours on those guys, however, so it is more just something to know for those who have drafted Best Ball Mania teams all summer.

Otherwise, though, the Yahoo rankings do not look considerably different than ADP or our rankings.

Notable Players Outside Yahoo's Top 150 Fantasy Football Rankings:

• Jerry Jeudy, WR, Browns
• Xavier Legette, WR, Panthers
• Ray Davis, RB, Bills
• Kimani Vidal, RB, Chargers
• Jahan Dotson, WR, Commanders
• Demario Douglas, WR, Patriots
• Adam Thielen, WR, Panthers

Players We Have Ranked Higher:

Players We Have Ranked Lower:

Exploiting NFL's Default Fantasy Football Rankings

The players we have ranked higher table below clearly illustrates the dominant difference in the NFL.com rankings.

Top quarterbacks are routinely ranked a round below where we have them and their industry-wide ADP.

The difference is not so stark when digging into the ADP, but it will be interesting to watch how the rankings skew the site ADP as August continues.

Either way, Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, and especially Lamar Jackson look like value picks at NFL.com, especially when considering where players like Matthew Stafford (114), Justin Herbert (114), and Trevor Lawrence (125) are ranked.

NFL.com should also be a good place to draft for zero RB truthers with several high upside, later round picks not even making the top 150.

The most notable are listed below, but Rico Dowdle stands out as a player to target.

It would not be a major shock if Dowdle just opens the season as the RB1 in Dallas given what we have seen from Ezekiel Elliott thus far in training camp.

Outside of the running backs, there generally seems to be a trend toward more established options over younger players in the NFL.com rankings.

Rich Hribar often discusses, including in his look at ADP, how a large share of the players who end up outplaying their ADP are rookies and second-year players.

That type of player could end up being valuable in NFL.com drafts this season.

Notable Players Outside NFL's Top 150 Fantasy Football Rankings:

• Rashid Shaheed, WR, Saints
• Antonio Gibson, RB, Patriots
• Trey Benson, RB, Cardinals
• Tyler Allgeier, RB, Falcons
• Jaleel McLaughlin, RB, Broncos
• Rico Dowdle, RB, Cowboys
• Ty Chandler, RB, Vikings
• Ja’Lynn Polk, WR, Patriots
• Josh Downs, WR, Colts
• Jerome Ford, RB, Browns
• MarShawn Lloyd, RB, Packers
• Tyrone Tracy, RB, Giants
• Jakobi Meyers, WR, Raiders
• Adam Thielen, WR, Panthers
• Darnell Mooney, WR, Falcons

Players We Have Ranked Higher:

Players We Have Ranked Lower: