Falcons vs Cowboys Fantasy Football Worksheet, Week 10

The Worksheet, a fantasy football overview by Rich Hribar, breaking down everything you need to know for the Week 10 Atlanta Falcons at Dallas Cowboys Sunday afternoon game.

Atlanta	Rank	@	Dallas	Rank
9.5		Spread	-9.5
22.5		Implied Total	32
21.9	21	Points/Gm	30.1	3
27.5	28	Points All./Gm	24	18
63.5	15	Plays/Gm	68.1	4
64.5	20	Opp. Plays/Gm	61.9	10
5.3	23	Off. Yards/Play	6.4	1
5.6	18	Def. Yards/Play	6	28
37.40%	25	Rush%	42.94%	10
62.60%	8	Pass%	57.06%	23
43.80%	25	Opp. Rush %	37.58%	7
56.20%	8	Opp. Pass %	62.42%	26

Dallas is third in the NFL in yards per play on first down (6.4 yards) and 30th in yards per play allowed on first down (6.3 yards).
The Cowboys converted just 5-of-17 (29.4%) their third and fourth down plays on Sunday after converting 47.5% (fifth in the league) entering the week.
The Falcons have been outscored by 57 points (104-47) in the fourth quarter this season, the largest differential in the league.
Atlanta is 31st in the league in expected points added via rushing (-33.9) as opposed to 13th in EPA passing (65.1).
The Falcons are averaging 2.3 sacks plus turnovers per game, the fewest in the league.

Trust = spike production for that player
Bust = down-week production for that player’s standards

Quarterback

Dak Prescott (TRUST): Prescott was brutal returning to action last week, throwing for a season-low 5.9 yards per pass attempt and 48.7% completion rate. He did not even clear 100 yards passing until there were 10 minutes left in the fourth quarter, but a late-game blitz of garbage points paired with a low-scoring leaguewide at the position allowed Prescott to salvage a top-10 scoring week and 18.9 fantasy points.

Prescott was returning from a calf injury against a defense that has been solid all year. It was also his first game below 8.5 Y/A since Week 1, so it’s alright to give him a hall pass for a week. Things should definitely be better on paper against an Atlanta defense that is 29th in the league in pressure rate (18.6%), last in sacks (11), 28th in passing points allowed per attempt (0.51), and 29th in passing points allowed per game (17.9).

Matt Ryan: After losing Calvin Ridley and throwing for 5.4 yards per attempt in Week 8, it appeared that Ryan would just have too much working against him to get over against a good New Orleans defense last week. Instead, Ryan responded with a season-high 11.4 yards per pass attempt, 343 passing yards, two passing scores, and a rushing touchdown on his way to a QB3 overall scoring week.

Ryan has now been a top-15 scorer in four of his past five games with three QB1 scoring weeks over that span. Ryan has two duds in Week 1 (7.4 points) and Week 8 (6.1 points) to remind us there is still potential for this offense to flatline, but he turned his fantasy season around.

Now, he faces a Dallas defense that is 25th in yards allowed per attempt (7.9 Y/A), 20th in touchdown rate (4.8%), and 20th in passing points allowed per game (16.3). The Cowboys have allowed four QB1 scoring weeks, but they have not allowed more than two touchdown passes in a game since Week 1, with three of the QB1 scoring weeks allowed since Tom Brady in Week 1 to come along with 3.5 or more rushing points to Jalen Hurts, Sam Darnold, and Teddy Bridgewater last week. Ryan is close for streaming consideration in 1QB leagues, but a more reliable QB2 option.

Running Back

Ezekiel Elliott: Elliott did average 5.8 yards per touch last week, but a mid-game knee scare, game script, and the Dallas offense limited him to 73 yards on 13 touches. With Dallas chasing game script and forced to throw the past three games we have seen Elliott’s use as a receiver return at least. Elliott has 14 catches for 98 yards the past three games after nine catches for 55 yards the first five games this season. We also have seen Elliott’s share of the backfield touches rise in those game environments as he set a new season-high in share of backfield touches in each of the past two games with 71.4% and 72.2%.

Elliott will look to get back on track against an Atlanta team that has been solid against the run, allowing 3.9 yards per carry (ninth), but they have allowed seven rushing scores to backs (21st) and 13.0 receiving points per game (24th) to backfields. In another spot as a large home favorite, Elliott is still an RB1 option.

Cordarrelle Patterson: Patterson just continues to find a way to get there as the Falcons have continually leaned on him to make plays in the offense. Patterson ran just nine times for 10 yards against a stout New Orleans front, but he caught all six of his targets for a season-high 126 yards in the passing game.

Through nine games, Patterson already has career-highs in rushing attempts (73), touches (111), and yards from scrimmage (737), while he has matched a career-high in touchdowns (seven).

Dallas is a much worse defense than the past two units the Falcons have faced in New Orleans and Carolina. The Cowboys are allowing 4.5 yards per carry to backs (24th) and 6.0 receptions per game (22nd) to backs. Patterson is locked in right now as a high-floor fantasy option.

Tony Pollard: With the Cowboys trailing throughout the past two weeks, Pollard has set his two lowest totals in percentage of backfield touches. There is more upside here for touches given the implied game total and matchup, but Pollard has just two games with double-digit points scored and still has just one touchdown on the year, leaving him as an RB4/FLEX.

Wide Receiver

CeeDee Lamb: Lamb caught just two passes for 23 yards last week, but still received nine targets (23.1%) as he and Prescott just could not get on the same page, leaving multiple splash plays on the table.

We are definitely getting Michael Gallup this week, but the injury to Blake Jarwin allows the Cowboys to get all three wideouts on the field, With Jarwin out last week, Dallas used 11 personnel on a season-high 82% of their snaps. Game script certainly aided that, but Dallas ran 12 personnel on 32% (fifth highest) of their snaps prior to Week 9 with Jarwin active.

All three Dallas wideouts move around the formation, with Lamb running 46% of his routes at LWR, 25% in the slot, and 28% at RWR, giving him the most runway to line up away from A.J. Terrell (85% snap rate at LCB), who has gotten a lot of attention this week in the midst of a breakout in Year 2. Lamb is an upside WR2.

Amari Cooper: Cooper caught 2-of-5 targets for 37 yards last week, now giving him three or fewer catches in 5-of-8 games this year. Cooper has two top-five weeks this season to remind us there is always a season in this offense for him, but he also has four weeks as a WR4 or lower with three as the WR60 or lower. Cooper leads the Cowboys in route rate at RWR (40%), but also plays 30% at LWR and 30% in the slot to not completely discount him solely because of Terrell and leaving him as a boom-or-bust WR2.

Michael Gallup: Gallup is fully expected to return to the field this week for the first time since Week 1, when he caught 4-of-7 targets for 36 yards on 60% of the snaps. Gallup went from 21.0% of the team targets in his games played in 2019 down to 17.0% a year ago with the addition of Lamb. After a 66-1,107-6 line in 2019, Gallup caught 59-of-105 targets for 843 yards and five touchdowns. As mentioned with Lamb, the loss of Jarwin allows the Cowboys to shift to more of a base 3WR team naturally from how they were operating with Gallup sidelined as opposed to us figuring out which direction they would go fully healthy.

In his first game back, Gallup is a volatile WR4/FLEX play against an Atlanta defense that is 12th in yards allowed per target (7.8 yards) to opposing wideouts, but also is 31st in touchdown rate (7.3%) allowed to the position.

Falcons WRs: Without Calvin Ridley, the Atlanta wideouts that are playing the most are Tajae Sharpe and Russell Gage. Sharpe has run a pass route on 67.7% and 85.7% of the dropbacks the past two weeks, resulting in games of 5-58-0 and 1-12-0. Gage has the same 67.7% and 85.7% rates as Sharpe and his results have been the inverse, posting games of 0-0-0 and 7-64-0.

Olamide Zaccheaus secured a pair of touchdown grabs last week but ran a route on just 38.7% of the team dropbacks.

Dallas is not a defense we run away from, but nobody here has stability with the offense running through Patterson and Pitts. Gage and Sharpe are the best bets for route participation, but each is lower-end FLEX plays for those in deeper formats.

Tight End

Kyle Pitts (TRUST): Pitts saw another 23.3% of the team targets last week, his fifth straight game with over 20% of the targets. Unfortunately, he secured just 3-of-7 targets for 62 yards, leaving a long gain on the field with a drop that could have pushed him over 100 yards easily. Through eight games, Pitts has held plenty of volatility, posting just three TE1 weeks, but he is carrying an elite target share with Ridley sidelined (22.2%, 22.2%, and 23.3% of the targets) and leads all tight ends in depth of target (11.4 yards).

Last week, the Falcons did alter his usage to move him away from defensive backs. Pitts lined up out wide on just 10 snaps, his fewest on the season, while playing 15 snaps inline, his most since Week 2.

Dallas is last in DVOA defending tight ends and rank 29th in completion rate (77.8%), 27th in yards per target (8.6 yards), and 25th in touchdown rate (7.4%) allowed to the position.

Dalton Schultz: We have seen Schultz come back to Earth in terms of target share, as expected earlier in the season. After 29.3% of the team targets Weeks 3-5, Schultz has seen 13.9% of the targets over his past three games. The good news is that without Jarwin, Schultz is locked into being a full-time player. He played a season-high 95% of the snaps last week. Atlanta has been mid-pack against tight ends but has allowed top-six weeks to all of Dallas Goedert (4-42-1), Rob Gronkowski (4-39-2), and Mike Gesicki (7-85-1) as the tangible fantasy options they have faced, leaving Schultz runway still to go back to as a TE1.

More Week 10 Fantasy breakdowns from The Worksheet: