As part of the Sharp Football Draft Kit, Raymond Summerlin is posting a fantasy football preview for all 32 NFL teams.
This preview includes advanced stats, the fantasy football outlook for Desmond Ridder, Drake London, Kyle Pitts, Bijan Robinson, Tyler Allgeier, and every other notable Falcon, and in-depth analysis of the coaching staff, passing game, and rushing attack.
Find a link to every team preview in our Draft Kit Hub.
Highlights:
- Among receivers to run at least 200 routes last season, Drake London ranked 14th in yards per route run (2.07), fifth in target rate per route (28%), and third in target share (29.3%).
- 28.8% of Kyle Pitts’ targets were 20 air yards or more last season, second among qualifying tight ends. He caught just two of those 17 targets.
- Bijan Robinson led the rookie class by creating 1,006 yards after contact in 2022 and forced a missed tackle on 32.2% of his attempts.
2022 Falcons Stats (NFL Rank):
- Points: 365 (15th)
- Total Offense: 5,417 (24th)
- Plays: 1,011 (26th)
- Offensive TDs: 34 (19th)
- Points Per Drive: 2.00 (14th)
- EPA+ Per Play: 0.2 (19th)
- Situation Neutral Pace: 32.53 seconds (27th)
2023 Falcons Coaching Staff:
- Head Coach: Arthur Smith
- Offensive Coordinator: Dave Ragone
Atlanta will have a new defensive coordinator in Ryan Nielsen, but Arthur Smith and Dave Ragone will be back for their third season running the offense.
The Falcons were midpack in neutral pass rate and pass rate over expected in Smith’s first season calling the plays, but they established it like no other in 2022.
Atlanta was 13.7 percent under their expected pass rate and finished dead last in neutral pass rate last season.
That approach probably made the most sense given who they had at quarterback and the weapons on offense, especially once Kyle Pitts went down.
It was also not that far off where the Titans were under Smith, and those offenses were among the best in the league.
Fantasy players would like to see more targets for Pitts and Drake London, but that feels unlikely unless Desmond Ridder takes a step forward.
Otherwise, the offense should feature a lot of first-rounder Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier, which might not be a bad thing.
2022 Falcons Passing Stats:
- Dropbacks: 486 (32nd)
- Neutral Pass Rate: 40.8% (32nd)
- Pass Rate Over Expected: -13.7% (31st)
- Pressure Rate Allowed: 18.8% (12th)
- ESPN Pass Block Win Rate: 59% (19th)
2023 Falcons Passing Game Preview:
The Falcons will face the sixth-easiest passing schedule based on 2022 efficiency numbers.
- QB: Desmond Ridder, Taylor Heinicke
- WR: Drake London, KhaDarel Hodge
- WR: Mack Hollins, Frank Darby
- WR: Scotty Miller, Penny Hart
- TE: Kyle Pitts, Jonnu Smith
A third-round pick last year, Desmond Ridder made four starts as a rookie, compiling 708 yards and two touchdowns in 115 attempts.
If it had qualified, his 6.2 yards per attempt would have ranked second last among quarterbacks last season, and his 1.7% TD rate would have been dead last.
Interestingly, those rates are almost identical to fellow rookie Kenny Pickett, who had a much larger sample.
Ridder did average 16 yards per game as a rusher, a 272-yard pace, so perhaps he can add some fantasy value with his legs.
Still, it is tough to make a fantasy case for a quarterback who did not show great efficiency in a small sample last season and plays for a team that wants to be one of the most run-heavy in the league.
Ridder is a tough sell even in 2QB formats, and that is without considering the possibility Taylor Heinicke could take over if Ridder struggles early in the season.
It doesn’t help that the receiving depth is lackluster at best. That said, the top of the depth chart looks good with Drake London and Kyle Pitts.
The No. 8 overall pick last year, London posted a 72/866/4 line as a rookie, good enough for a WR48 finish in per-game scoring.
His underlying stats were more impressive.
Among receivers to run at least 200 routes last season, London ranked 14th in yards per route run (2.07), fifth in target rate per route (28%), and third in target share (29.3%).
Those numbers open an important question: Was he actually earning those targets, or was he simply the only option, especially once Pitts was lost for the season?
His 7.4 yards per target were much less impressive (67th), and PPF calculated London was more than 100 receiving yards under his expected total given his usage.
Of course, he was not helped by quarterback play, seeing the 15th-highest rate of inaccurate targets. That number did not fall dramatically in the four games with Ridder.
London’s fantasy case is one of the more difficult to litigate.
He commanded targets as a rookie, a sign he is an above-average talent, but was not great on a per-target basis in an offense that is not going to get him a ton of opportunities even if he continues to dominate targets – he was 55th among all receivers in routes run last season.
London’s target share (26.6%) with Pitts active last season was good enough to assume he will continue to get the volume, but his upside will be capped as long as this offense remains as run-heavy and the quarterback situation remains in question.
Kyle Pitts was a victim of that offensive environment last season, catching just 28 passes for 356 yards and 2 touchdowns in 10 games before suffering a season-ending knee injury.
He finished as the TE20 in per-game scoring.
Routes were a massive issue for Pitts last season. He ranked 18th among all tight ends in routes run during the 10 weeks he was active, and he was easily outside the top 20 in routes per game.
Things did not get much better when he got into the pattern. 28.8% of Pitts’ targets were 20 air yards or more last season, second among qualifying tight ends. He caught just two of those targets.
76.5% of those deep targets were deemed inaccurate according to TruMedia. That is less than ideal.
He caught 26 of his 42 targets that were less than 20 air yards, averaging 11.7 yards per reception on those looks.
Skewing his targets back to the intermediate part of the field is a must for the Falcons this season.
The good news is Pitts was targeted on 28% of his routes, No. 1 among tight ends, and remains one of Atlanta’s only viable options at pass catcher.
That is enough to make him a risk-reward play after the elite tight ends are off the board, but he will likely need a change in usage and better quarterback play to really hit his fantasy ceiling.
Outside of those two, there is not much in this passing game, and it is unlikely there is enough volume to really support a No. 3 option.
Atlanta did bring in Mack Hollins after he managed a 57/690/4 line with the Raiders last season. He should provide some big plays, but it is tough to see him earning enough volume to be relevant in fantasy.
The answer to the thin receiver situation might be “running back” Cordarrelle Patterson, who AtlantaFalcons.com’s Tori McElhaney believes will have a bigger role in the passing game this season.
Patterson lined up as a receiver on over 30% of his snaps back in 2021, and the addition of Bijan Robinson could free him up to be used more as a receiver again this season.
It probably will not matter outside of deeper leagues, but Patterson’s usage is worth monitoring through the preseason and early part of the regular season.
2022 Falcons Rushing Stats:
- Rushing Attempts – Scrambles: 522 (1st)
- Yards Before Contact Per Attempt: 3.0 (9th)
- Football Outsiders’ Adjusted Line Yards: 4.68 (5th)
- ESPN’s Run Block Win Rate: 71% (16th)
2023 Falcons Running Game Preview:
The Falcons will face the 11th-easiest rushing schedule based on 2022 efficiency numbers.
- RB: Bijan Robinson, Tyler Allgeier, Cordarrelle Patterson
- OL: Jake Matthews, Matthew Bergeron, Drew Dalman, Chris Lindstrom, Kaleb McGary
Atlanta already had one of the best rushing attacks in the league last season before they added No. 8 overall pick Bijan Robinson to the mix.
Robinson’s college profile is about as good as it gets for a running back entering the draft.
He accumulated 4,215 yards from scrimmage and 41 touchdowns across three seasons at Texas, increasing his production every year.
He led the rookie class by creating 1,006 yards after contact in 2022 and forced a missed tackle on 32.2% of his attempts.
He averaged 13.4 yards per catch in his college career and was the only back in this draft class to have 100 air yards in 2022.
Behind a great offensive line and playing in a running game that was already good without him, the only real question for Robinson is whether he will get the high-end usage necessary to pay off his draft cost.
Recent draft history suggests the answer is yes.
Since 2010, nine running backs have been drafted No. 15 or higher. Those players averaged 252 touches in their rookie seasons.
Atlanta already led the league in rushing attempts minus scrambles last season, and every indication is they want to keep the same approach moving forward.
Tyler Allgeier should remain involved coming off his good rookie season, but there should be enough opportunities to go around in this offense, and Robinson is simply a better talent.
Robinson is worth a look at the end of Round 1.
As for Allgeier, he finished first among qualifying running backs in EPA per rush last season and seventh in yards per attempt.
The sheer volume in Atlanta’s running game should allow him to get a handful of weekly touches, but it will be difficult for Allgeier to earn standalone value in standard-sized leagues if Robinson is the talent we expect him to be.
That said, Allgeier has already proven he can carry this running game, giving him excellent contingency value as a handcuff.
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