The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Week 15 matchup between the Falcons and Raiders on Monday Night Football.
Find a breakdown of every Week 15 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.
| Atlanta | Rank | @ | Las Vegas | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -4.5 | Spread | 4.5 | ||
| 24.25 | Implied Total | 19.75 | ||
| 21.4 | 19 | Points/Gm | 18.2 | 27 |
| 25.6 | 25 | Points All./Gm | 27.8 | 30 |
| 63.6 | 12 | Plays/Gm | 62.4 | 15 |
| 61.9 | 17 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 62.3 | 18 |
| 5.8 | 10 | Off. Yards/Play | 4.9 | 28 |
| 5.6 | 25 | Def. Yards/Play | 5.4 | 12 |
| 43.41% | 14 | Rush% | 34.65% | 31 |
| 56.59% | 19 | Pass% | 65.35% | 2 |
| 44.35% | 18 | Opp. Rush % | 42.96% | 15 |
| 55.65% | 15 | Opp. Pass % | 57.04% | 18 |
- Atlanta is 4-1 in division games (5th) compared to 2-6 in non-division games (23rd), a run that includes an 0-4 record against AFC opponents.
- The Raiders have trailed for 90.9% of their offensive snaps in the second half of games, the highest rate in the league.
- The Falcons have the worst point differential in the league since Week 10 (-60).
- Atlanta has the worst turnover differential in the league (-8) over that span.
- The Raiders have the league's worst turnover differential over the entire season (-17). The next closest team is -11.
- The Falcons have scored a touchdown on 30.8% (4-of-13) of their red zone possessions over their past four games (31st) after a 57.1% rate (16-of-28) prior (13th).
- The Raiders have scored a touchdown on a league-worst 23.1% (3-of-13) of their red zone possessions over their past four games.
- 22% of the Atlanta possessions fail to gain a first down, the lowest rate in the league. The league average is 31.6%.
Trust = spike production for that player
Quarterback
Kirk Cousins: Cousins did throw for 344 yards and 9.3 yards per pass attempt on Sunday against the Vikings, but he failed to throw a touchdown pass for the fourth straight game and added 2 more interceptions.
That created a QB23 (9.8 points) scoring week.
Cousins has 0 passing touchdowns and 8 interceptions over the past four weeks.
The past three matchups were brutal spots against the Broncos, Chargers, and Vikings.
Things look much better for Cousins here.
We will not push him as a streamer in 1QB leagues, but Cousins is a matchup-based QB2 who is in his best spot over the past month.
He is indoors attached to a solid team total and drawing a Raiders defense that does not create a lot of pressure and plays man coverage.
Las Vegas is 27th in pressure rate (29.9%)
When Cousins has been kept clean, he has completed 71.7% of his passes for 8.0 Y/A with 12 touchdowns.
Under pressure, he has completed 54.5% of his passes for 7.1 Y/A with 5 touchdowns.
The Raiders' man coverage rate has increased to 31.3% over their past five games, which is eighth in the league.
Against man coverage, Cousins has a 6.6% touchdown rate compared to a 1.9% touchdown rate against zone coverage.
The Raiders allow 15.7 passing points per game, 27th in the league.
The only teams Cousins has faced this year worse than that have been the Buccaneers, against whom he had his best two games this season.
Raiders QB: Aidan O’Connell’s injury on Sunday was not as bad as initially feared.
He might be able to play on Monday night, but we will track his practices this week.
If he cannot play, then Desmond Ridder will get a start against his former team.
Regardless of which quarterback starts, they are only an option for 2QB gamers rolling the dice on the matchup.
Otherwise, these passers are only in play for single-game DFS.
Over their past four games, Atlanta has allowed Sam Darnold (34.6 points), Bo Nix (28.8 points), and Derek Carr (20.5 points) to have front-end scoring weeks.
They also allowed Justin Herbert a QB31 week (8.0 points) in that pile of games to keep us honest from overstepping things with either of these passers.
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Running Back
Bijan Robinson (TRUST): We have been eyeing Robinson’s fantasy playoff schedule for some time, and he hits this portion of the schedule while playing his best football of the season.
Robinson is coming off 101 yards and a touchdown against a Minnesota defense that has been excellent against running backs this season.
Sunday was Robinson’s seventh top-10 scoring week over his past eight games.
Over that span, Robinson's success rate as a runner is 47.4%, second in the league behind David Montgomery among all running backs with 100 or more rushes.
He is fourth in EPA per rush over that period, trailing only Saquon Barkley, Jahmyr Gibbs, and Derrick Henry.
We did see Tyler Allgeier snake a touchdown on Sunday, but Robinson still accounted for 72.7% of the backfield touches.
He has averaged 22.9 touches per game over his past eight weeks while clearing 100 yards from scrimmage in all but one.
The Raiders allow 4.48 YPC to running backs (19th).
They just allowed 174 yards and 2 touchdowns to the Tampa Bay backfield on Sunday.
We have seen De’Von Achane (105 yards and a touchdown) and Chase Brown (157 yards and a touchdown) rough them up surrounding games against weak backfields in Denver and Kansas City.
Sincere McCormick: McCormick received an extended role on Sunday, turning 17 touches into 89 yards against Tampa Bay.
Since being activated, McCormick has handled 27.8%, 53.9%, and 89.5% of the backfield touches.
We could get Alexander Mattison back this week, but McCormick has established himself as a player the Raiders need to let lead this backfield over the remainder of the season.
He has a 56.3% success rate as a runner compared to a 27.8% rate for Mattison.
He has had a run of 10 or more yards on 18.8% of his runs compared to a 5.2% rate for Mattison.
He has averaged a team-high 3.66 yards after contact per rush.
We still need to see McCormick get into the end zone and catch passes, but he is a back-end RB2/FLEX for needy gamers.
Atlanta has allowed 10.8 rushing points (7th) and 9.9 receiving points (25th) per game to backfields.
Wide Receiver
Drake London (TRUST): London has cooled down over the back half of the season, posting one WR1 scoring week over his past six games.
He only has one 100-yard game and has not found the end zone since Week 9.
This is a spot for him to challenge both.
We already laid out the man coverage rates for the Raiders earlier.
London has been targeted on 34.4% of his routes against man coverage compared to a 24.4% rate against zone coverage.
London’s slot role is also advantageous here.
The Raiders are fifth in the league in points allowed to outside receivers but are 25th in points allowed to slot receivers.
They allow 8.4 yards per target (18th) and a 9.2% touchdown rate (29th) to slot receivers.
London has not scored in four games, but he still leads all wide receivers with 44.4% of his team’s red zone targets and 57.1% of the end zone targets.
Darnell Mooney: After a few quiet games, Mooney bounced on Sunday with 6 catches for 142 yards.
Mooney is averaging a career-high 67.2 yards per game and 15.3 yards per catch.
He has already matched his career-high with 5 touchdowns.
Mooney does not have the same target inflation against man coverage as London. Still, Mooney is averaging 2.59 yards per route run against man coverage compared to 1.84 yards per route against zone coverage.
The Raiders allow 7.4 yards per target to outside receivers (7th) and a 3.6% touchdown rate (8th) to those wideouts to throw some potential cold water here, but Mooney is an upside WR3.
Jakobi Meyers: Meyers secured 7-of-10 targets for 67 yards on Sunday.
Meyers has double-digit targets in four of his past five games.
He has finished outside of the top 30 once since Week 5.
Meyers has only scored 1 touchdown since Week 3, so he is a floor-based WR2/WR3 with added elevation in full-PPR formats.
We still have concerns about quarterback play here, but Meyers is a safe bet for volume.
Meyers has 28.9% of the team targets in his games since Week 4.
This game offers plenty of matchup appeal.
The Falcons have been flooded by WR1 targets, allowing 20.1 fantasy points per game to those lead targets (31st).
Tre Tucker: Tucker is a touchdown-or-bust swing in single-game DFS, but if you are chasing a big play, the Falcons have allowed 44.4% of deep targets to wide receivers to be completed, which is 29th in the league.
They have allowed 5 touchdowns on those targets, tied for the fifth-most in the league.
Ray-Ray McCloud: McCloud has had games with 95 and 98 receiving yards in the past two weeks after maxing out at 66 yards before those games.
He only has one touchdown on the year, leaving him as a floor-based FLEX in full-PPR formats or a better single-game DFS play, but McCloud gets a piece of that matchup laid out earlier with London from the slot.
McCloud has played 47% of his snaps from the slot.
Tight End
Brock Bowers: Bowers only caught 3-of-5 targets for 49 yards on Sunday.
Gamers watched that as Michael Mayer caught 7-of-9 targets for 68 yards.
The Raiders went heavy on 2TE sets on Sunday.
Mayer ran a route on 70.7% of the dropbacks.
His previous season-high was 48.8%.
Bowers was still on the field for 87.8% of the dropbacks, so his usage is not concerning, although we wish those Sunday targets went his way.
Bowers is still second in the NFL in receptions (87), so we are returning to him as a front-end TE1.
He is in a good spot to draw targets.
Atlanta plays man coverage on only 19.1% of their snaps, which is 29th in the league.
Bowers has been targeted 28.6% of his routes against zone coverage.
Atlanta has been in the middle of the pack defending tight ends, allowing 7.5 yards per target (18th) and a 3.7% touchdown rate (14th) to the position.
Kyle Pitts: Pitts caught 1-of-6 targets for 14 yards on Sunday, giving him 89 receiving yards over his past five games.
He has one or fewer receptions in four of his past five games.
He has not had 20% of the team targets in a game since Week 7.
Pitts is a matchup-based TE2.
The only thing keeping the lights on here is that the Atlanta passing game has had a rough schedule. We like the spot for Cousins to be more successful here, while the Raiders have been dreadful against tight ends.
The Raiders are 29th in points allowed per target to tight ends (2.04), allowing 8.6 yards per target (27th) and a 6.9% touchdown rate (27th) to the position.
Tight ends have scored 22.5% of the fantasy points allowed by the Raiders, the third-highest rate in the league.
More Week 15 Fantasy Breakdowns From The Worksheet:
| Matchup | Time |
|---|---|
| Rams @ 49ers -- FREE | Thursday Night Football |
| Chiefs @ Browns | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Bengals @ Titans | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Commanders @ Saints | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Ravens @ Giants | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Cowboys @ Panthers | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Jets @ Jaguars | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Dolphins @ Texans | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Colts @ Broncos | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Bills @ Lions | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Steelers @ Eagles | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Patriots @ Cardinals | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Bucs @ Chargers | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Packers @ Seahawks | Sunday Night Football |
| Bears @ Vikings -- FREE | Monday Night Football |
| Falcons @ Raiders -- FREE | Monday Night Football |