As we are preparing for our 2023 fantasy drafts, we are going to dive into the recent history of average draft positions to pull away any ongoing trends or pitfalls.
Every year, we have nearly eight full months to prepare for the draft, but just how good are we at setting the market for the season?
Today we are looking at quarterbacks. We have already covered the running back, wide receiver, and tight end positions.
Quarterback Fantasy Related Articles:
- Quarterback Tiers
- Quarterback Rankings
- Quarterback Trends
- Red Zone Points vs Expectation: Quarterback
- Stats That Matter: Quarterback
Highlights:
- When you look at the top seven quarterbacks in fantasy points per game last season, six of them were drafted within the top seven of the position last summer.
- From a weekly stance, the top-12 quarterbacks in ADP combined to account for 44.4% of all QB1 scoring weeks in 2022.
- 87.2% of all quarterbacks selected in the top three of their position have delivered a QB1 campaign while nearly two-thirds of that group have produced a top-six scoring season.
QB ADP vs. Points Scored since 2010:
Pulling up average draft position since 2010, the relationship between the cost of quarterbacks and their points scored per game has a soft correlation on the surface.
That said, we collectively have gotten better at drafting the position in recent years.
Top-24 QB in ADP and Correlation to PPR Points per Game Since 2010:
| Year | Top-24 | Top-12 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 0.3863 | 0.5055 |
| 2021 | 0.5826 | 0.5616 |
| 2020 | 0.4995 | 0.5221 |
| 2019 | 0.3002 | 0.2538 |
| 2018 | 0.2279 | 0.3063 |
| 2017 | 0.3001 | 0.2641 |
| 2016 | 0.3591 | 0.2011 |
| 2015 | 0.3007 | 0.2671 |
| 2014 | 0.2381 | 0.3681 |
| 2013 | 0.3381 | 0.2622 |
| 2012 | 0.4958 | 0.4212 |
| 2011 | 0.2005 | 0.1679 |
| 2010 | 0.1914 | 0.2806 |
The 2022 season took a step back overall after we had hyper-accurate seasons drafting the position over the 2020-2021 seasons, but gamers were collectively still on top of things. Even with some regression, last season’s correlation for the top-24 scorers was the third-highest rate since 2012, trailing only the previous two seasons.
Where the position was stronger last season compared to the previous two seasons was being able to land successful higher-end output later in the draft.
We had Tua Tagovailoa (QB16 in ADP), Justin Fields (QB17), and Trevor Lawrence (QB18) all hit as QB1 plays in points per game that carried a mid-range cost.
Daniel Jones (QB28) and Geno Smith (QB35) were great finds at the bottom of drafts. Jared Goff was just outside of the top-12 in points per game and was being drafted as the QB27 last summer.
After we had a couple of seasons in which late-round quarterback was a tough road to navigate, we had some pushback last season.
Even with late-round quarterbacks rebounding, when looking at how good we have been at drafting the top-12 quarterbacks, things remained just as strong.
In each of the past three seasons, top-12 quarterbacks and their ADP carry a correlation of over 50% to fantasy points scored per game.
Justin Herbert was the only real miss at the front end of drafts, with the real disappointments of Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, Russell Wilson, and Matthew Stafford coming with back-end QB1 costs.
When you look at the top seven quarterbacks in fantasy points per game last season, six of them were drafted within the top seven of the position last summer.
While last season offered more later-round options to compete as back-end QB1 options, if you want to land a headliner quarterback, you have to pay to play.
We have gotten extremely efficient at setting the top of the market for the position in fantasy these past three seasons with gamers now focusing on elevating the archetype of quarterbacks that have that dual-threat ability.
When you look at the quarterbacks with higher ADP that failed last season, the majority of them were strictly pocket passers while two of the better low-cost hits were mobile options.
The bottom line is that passing production in isolation still offers an arbitrage opportunity for fantasy, but the rushing component is harder to find as drafts progress.
If you fall into a player putting both together, that is still a scarce resource, even with quarterbacks running more than ever.
Let us take this a step further with a look at where the highest-scoring games at the position are coming from.
Percentage of High Scoring Weekly Games by Top-12 QB in ADP:
| Year | Top-12 | Top-6 | Top-3 | QB1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 44.4% | 53.7% | 64.8% | 72.2% |
| 2021 | 52.1% | 64.8% | 79.6% | 88.9% |
| 2020 | 50.5% | 58.8% | 70.6% | 75.0% |
| 2019 | 37.3% | 39.2% | 45.1% | 52.9% |
| 2018 | 41.2% | 40.2% | 47.1% | 41.2% |
| 2017 | 34.3% | 36.3% | 35.3% | 41.2% |
| 2016 | 43.1% | 51.0% | 62.7% | 64.7% |
| 2015 | 39.2% | 45.1% | 60.8% | 70.6% |
| 2014 | 43.6% | 51.0% | 60.8% | 52.9% |
| 2013 | 47.5% | 56.9% | 66.7% | 70.6% |
| 2012 | 41.2% | 51.0% | 47.1% | 52.9% |
From a weekly stance, the top-12 quarterbacks in ADP combined to account for 44.4% of all QB1 scoring weeks in 2022. That fits into what we opened up with. That rate was a step back from the previous two seasons, but still a larger share of the best games since 2013 outside of 2020-2021.
Those players accounted for 53.7% of all top-six scoring weeks, 64.8% of all top-three scoring weeks, and 13 of the 18 high scorers every week over the season.
The front-loaded weeks are what we truly care about and the top players in draft cost are where those weeks are coming from in recent seasons, even with this past season giving up some ground.
The last time the QB1 in ADP also closed the season as the QB1 in overall scoring was Aaron Rodgers in 2011.
Of the top 50 scoring fantasy seasons for quarterbacks since 2010, just five of them have been quarterbacks selected as the QB1 in fantasy drafts.
While that seems disparaging on the surface, remember the context and expectations that come with that draft selection.
These players have not completely matched and shattered those expectations, but they also have rarely bricked as well. Unlike at the other fantasy positions, the floor here remains high even if you fall short of expectations by swinging big at quarterback.
Just one quarterback (Cam Newton in 2016) was the QB1 in ADP and averaged fewer than 18.5 fantasy points per game while Peyton Manning in 2015 was the only passer with an ADP in the top three of the position to score fewer than 16.5 points per game.
Outside of 2QB/Superflex formats, the QB1 overall is not going to set you back in the context of the position.
QB Tiers and Rate of Players Matching or Exceeding Draft Position and High-Scoring Rates:
| QB ADP | Match+ | QB1% | Top-6% | Top-3% | PPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Top-3 | 33.3% | 87.2% | 64.1% | 33.3% | 20.4 |
| QB4-6 | 33.3% | 56.4% | 33.3% | 23.1% | 18.4 |
| QB7-12 | 52.6% | 52.6% | 23.1% | 10.3% | 16.4 |
| QB13-18 | 65.4% | 42.3% | 16.7% | 7.7% | 15.4 |
| QB19-24 | 57.7% | 21.8% | 8.9% | 2.6% | 14.6 |
There are arbitrary cutoffs here but splitting up our ADP pie into front-end quarterbacks (top three in ADP), the secondary tier (QB4-6 in ADP), our back-half QB1 options (QB7-12), front-half QB2 (QB13-18) and back-half QB2 (QB19-24) we can further dissect the hit rates at the position and illuminate how the front of the position has carried more weight.
This also highlights the concept of “area drafting” which can present the right pocket of the position to be in on or prevent you from unnecessarily forcing a position because you deem it a need in drafts.
The top six quarterbacks have a lower rate of matching their draft cost due to a tighter margin of error, but you can also see the rate at which players from those tiers deliver high-floor paired with high-ceiling seasons.
87.2% of all quarterbacks selected in the top three of their position have delivered a QB1 campaign while nearly two-thirds of that group have produced a top-six scoring season.
You can see above that there is a bit of a firewall at the position once you clear the top half of the QB1 group.
We are going to be walking through how I am drafting teams myself next week in larger detail, but this season in particular, I believe five players fit that mold of where the firewall is for options that have true odds to be the QB1 overall: Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, and Justin Fields.
Once we are past that initial wave of high-priced quarterbacks, the position gets much tighter.
The back half of the QB1 options starts to blend in with the front half of the QB2 options.
Once the elite options are gone from the player pool, this is where you see gamers often start to roster fill. They force the position, even though the rates in which that subset of options can produce truly difference-making seasons plummets and points per game tighten up.
Even last season, this was the primary trap area. Especially when gamers were taking options that lacked mobility such as Brady, Rodgers, and Stafford.
Back-end QB1 options still have a historical edge in success over the front half of QB2 plays, but you will have to question the squeeze versus continuing to wait. Especially if that option does not come along with mobility, you are best to sit tight and go in another direction.
Applying that logic to this season, we do have mobile options such as Deshaun Watson (QB9) and Anthony Richardson (QB11) in that back-end QB1 strike zone, but is there a real reason that you should feel the need to rush into a Tua Tagovailoa or Dak Prescott when players such as Geno Smith, Aaron Rodgers, or Jared Goff can be had later on?
I believe you can also suggest that Trevor Lawrence at QB8 is more of a “miss small” pick than landing someone that cannot be arbitraged by a later option and outright carries you to a title.
Even as someone anticipating a rebound for Justin Herbert or believes that Joe Burrow has modern-day Joe Montana energy, that tier of quarterbacks HAS to run out elite passing production to compete at the front end of the position.
All three of those guys are safer picks than either Lamar Jackson or Justin Fields, but both Jackson and Fields are drawing higher odds at being the QB1 overall since they do not have the pressure of having to have a Pantheon-level passing season to get there.
All of those passing-first options will have to flirt with 40 touchdown passes just to be in the area of pushing for the top spot, and that is hard to just outright bank on, even for great passers.
When we get to the back half of the QB2 options, points per game stay in a strong proxy of the previous two tiers, but the hit rates from those spots significantly drop.
We still have seen nearly two quarterbacks per season from the lower QB2 tier of ADP hit as top-12 scorers in a given season over the past decade.
We should still anticipate for a few passers to find their way into providing value based on draft cost, but that area of the draft has been lean on providing actual difference-making seasons beyond value plays.
For many of the passers that end up as QB1 players from that area of the draft, it is typically survivorship from playing a full season at a decent level.
Of the 18 top-12 scoring seasons from that bucket of passers, half of them were just as the QB10-QB12 that season while just seven were top-six scorers and two (Matt Ryan in 2016 and Cam Newton in 2011) were top-three scorers.
Takeaways:
- We are more accurate at drafting quarterbacks than ever. Particularly in identifying which archetypes of quarterbacks offer the highest ceiling outcomes paired with high floors.
- Quarterback has become a “pay-to-play” position. If you want a player consistently churning in weekly-defining weeks, that player is coming with high draft capital.
- Those options are still finite. You do not have to be the team to select the first passer in 1QB formats, but stay cognizant about when that fall-off from the mid-QB1 tier to the back-end QB1 area hits.
- If you do miss out on the front end of the position, do not force the issue on a player that does not offer mobility. It is easier to find options to arbitrage passing stats as the draft progresses as opposed to finding rushing points.
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