- The average draft position among the top 48 running backs and points scored per game had their lowest correlation in a season since 2018.
- 37.0% of the backs drafted in the dead zone who matched or exceeded ADP since 2010 have been rookies or second-year players.
- Since 2010, there have been 90 running backs selected as the second or later running back on their roster who also ended the season as a top-24 scorer. 70 of those 90 running backs (77.8%) were attached to lead backs who were being selected outside of the top 12 of the position.
As we prepare for our 2024 fantasy drafts, let's dive into the recent history of average draft positions to pull away any ongoing trends or pitfalls.
We have nearly eight full months to prepare for the draft every year, but how good are we at setting the market for the season?
We are looking to hash that out here, continuing with the wide receivers.
Running Back Fantasy Related Articles:
- Running Back Tiers
- Running Back Rankings
- Running Back Trends
- Red Zone Points vs Expectation: Running Backs
We have covered that the 2023 season was a tough one for offensive output, which significantly impacted things across the fantasy landscape.
Yesterday, we covered how we fell off in setting the quarterback market accurately compared to recent seasons.
A few weeks ago, we covered how the state of the running back position has been consistently waning in terms of usage across the board.
That also spilled over into the fantasy running back market last season.
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Top-48 RB in ADP & Correlation to PPR Points Per Game Since 2010
| Year | R-Squared |
|---|---|
| 2023 | 0.2405 |
| 2022 | 0.5254 |
| 2021 | 0.4018 |
| 2020 | 0.4487 |
| 2019 | 0.5281 |
| 2018 | 0.1078 |
| 2017 | 0.3786 |
| 2016 | 0.2386 |
| 2015 | 0.2129 |
| 2014 | 0.2846 |
| 2013 | 0.3013 |
| 2012 | 0.5472 |
| 2011 | 0.3361 |
| 2010 | 0.2724 |
The average draft position among the top 48 running backs and points scored per game had their lowest correlation in a season since 2018.
It was a steep fall from the previous four seasons when the points per game among the top 48 backs could be significantly explained solely by draft position.
Only 17 running backs among the top 48 matched their ADP cost last season.
Running Back Tiers and Rate of Players Matching/Exceeding Draft Position and High-Scoring Rates:
| RB ADP | Match+ | 2023 | RB2% | 2023 | RB1% | 2023 | Top-6% | 2023 | Top-3% | 2023 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RB1 | 53.6% | 41.7% | 75.3% | 75.0% | 53.6% | 41.7% | 30.9% | 25.0% | 19.1% | 16.7% |
| RB2 | 48.2% | 33.3% | 48.2% | 33.3% | 20.2% | 25.0% | 8.9% | 16.7% | 3.0% | 8.3% |
| RB3 | 57.1% | 66.7% | 36.9% | 58.3% | 11.9% | 8.3% | 4.5% | 0.0% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| RB4 | 59.5% | 58.3% | 22.0% | 25.0% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 2.4% | 8.3% | 1.8% | 0.0% |
Things were terrible last season up top.
Chrisitan McCaffrey was the only running back in the top 10 to match their ADP in seasonal output.
We had RB1 scoring seasons from Breece Hall (RB15 in ADP), Rachaad White (RB23), Raheem Mostert (RB47), Alvin Kamara (RB26), and James Cook (RB29).
That was the most RB1 producers selected outside of the top 12 in a season since 2016.
Just 41.7% of the RB1 picks in ADP closed last season as an RB1, well below the base rate above.
While RB1 draft picks were down in 2023, it is still noteworthy that the RB2 “dead zone” was still lackluster.
RB2 draft picks did produce three RB1 scorers, but their hit rate in terms of matching ADP was even worse than the base of our entire sample size.
Outside of the hits in Hall, White, and Jahmyr Gibbs, only Kenneth Walker was a top-24 back last season from the RB2 pocket that we often refer to as the dead zone.
RB2 options are cheaper this offseason, but the thing about the dead zone is that it does not move in terms of overall draft position. It is a pocket of the position internally that has historically been soft and has a steep drop-off in bust rate from RB1 selections.
Whereas RB1 picks failed to meet high cost last season as a group, 75% of them still were RB2 scorers or better, right in line with the base rates above.
Since 2010, just 48.2% of all backs selected in that area of the draft have finished as an RB2 or better, and last year that was 33.3%.
Miles Sanders, Dalvin Cook, and Alexander Mattison were classic dead-zone traps.
Braving the Dead Zone
If you are selecting players from the RB2 dead zone, you want to target younger options that have a pipeline to catching the football, just as was the case for Hall, White, and Gibbs.
37.0% of the backs drafted in the dead zone who matched or exceeded ADP since 2010 have been rookies or second-year players.
In that same sample, there have been 34 picks from the dead zone that have finished with RB1 seasons.
14 of those backs (41.2%) were in seasons 1-2 of their careers while 20 of them were in the first three seasons of their career.
Just eight of them were in their sixth season or later.
If you are selecting a veteran, that player needs access to receptions, something drying up at the position.
21 of those 34 backs caught at least 3.0 more passes per game while just five of them caught fewer than 2.0 passes per game.
Ironically, Rachaad White once again fits those criteria again this season.
James Cook also stands out in terms of career arc and receiving ability.
Zamir White is young but does appear limited in stacking receptions.
Inversely, Alvin Kamara is older but continues to catch a ton of passes.
Avoid Cheap Lead Running Backs
I mentioned Alexander Mattison as a classic trap player for gamers.
That song that gamers sing to themselves about is the volume potential of a player who has yet to be productive.
We all have some red on our ledgers in that department.
Since 2010, only 35.6% of the running backs that were the first running backs selected from their team and outside of the RB1 range in ADP met their draft cost.
If drafting someone under this umbrella, you also want to make sure they are discounted because they are unproven.
In 2023, eight running backs cleared their ADP as the first option in their fantasy backfields outside of the RB1 range.
Six of those eight were in their first or second season.
Since 2010, 40% of all hits from the discounted RB1 criteria have been first or second-year players.
Just 24.3% of that group were in their sixth season or later.
That is where you may hear alarm bells for players such as Joe Mixon, Aaron Jones, or James Conner in the immediate RB2 range of draft costs, but particularly when attempting to run into potential values such as Nick Chubb, Ezekiel Elliott, or Gus Edwards later on.
Late Round Gems from 2023
We also had wild values from Kyren Williams (RB69 in ADP), De’Von Achane (RB41), James Conner (RB25), Isiah Pacheco (RB30), and David Montgomery (RB31).
All of those backs finished the season top 15 at the position in points per game while being drafted on average at the RB3 level or lower.
It was a great year for finding value at the position, which has placed a fingerprint on how drafts are going this offseason.
This summer, wide receivers are rocketing up draft boards and gamers are building out WR-heavy rosters at their highest rate.
I have already laid out a case as to why we should bet on the field being tighter to the RB1 this upcoming season after CMC dusted the competition in 2023.
That said, we do have a few ongoing trends that are tough to ignore across the league when building out our rosters.
Running back usage continues to decline leaguewide in both the running and passing games while passing games have been more concentrated on their lead targets.
That marriage has created the cocktail we are seeing play out in the current fantasy landscape in which WR1 options are valued at a premium.
While I am not anticipating we have such a rich return on cheap running backs this season as last year, the number of do-it-all fantasy backs is as finite of a resource as it has been since I have been playing.
Gamers have gotten sharper as well in acknowledging that.
Years ago, we would have seen backs like Williams and potentially Raheem Mostert have significant jumps in ADP year-over-year based on their breakouts.
Two of the largest draft hits from 2023 are still being handled cautiously.
Mostert is past 30 and playing with an electric young player. The trepidation from the field is more than reasonable paired with the expected touchdown regression.
Williams is a little trickier to navigate.
Since 2010, there have been 44 running backs to average over 20 PPR points per game.
As you can see in that image at the top of the page, that cluster of backs has come attached to premium capital.
37 of those 44 seasons (84.1%) came from running backs selected as RB1 players in those seasons.
Williams was just the sixth player of that group to be selected as an RB3 or lower.
Williams has been compared to players such as Justin Forsett, James Robinson, or Thomas Rawls. I have even laid out a few flippant comps along those lines. But his breakout was much better than those backs.
Here are the other five backs who demolished lower-end draft capital and how they followed things up.
| RB | Year | ADP | PPG | N+ ADP | N+ PPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Jackson | 2011 | 32 | 20.9 | 16 | 11.5 |
| Devonta Freeman | 2015 | 38 | 21.1 | 7 | 17.8 |
| Darren McFadden | 2010 | 38 | 21.0 | 9 | 17.7 |
| C.J. Anderson | 2018 | 48 | 23.8 | 63 | 2.2 |
| James Conner | 2018 | 55 | 21.5 | 6 | 14.6 |
| Kyren Williams | 2023 | 69 | 21.3 | 7 | TBD |
C.J. Anderson (from the same system when he filled in for Todd Gurley) was the only back here that gamers were out on the following season.
The other four had a decline in production following their breakout season, but players like DeVonta Freeman (RB7 in points per game in 2016) and Darren McFadden (RB8 in points per game in 2011) remained solid as mid-RB1 options while active.
If Williams still holds a grip on the touches as a clear RB1, then his current draft cost appears to be in line with those backs.
Fred Jackson ended up sharing a backfield with C.J. Spiller in 2012, dipping to RB27 in points per game.
James Conner dropped to RB17 in points game after the Steelers let Bell walk in 2019, the same year that Ben Roethlisberger was lost for the season in Week 2.
Even though I did not make things any easier for gamers in handling Williams these remaining few weeks of summer, I just wanted to add some more accurate context to the breakout for him.
How to Select Better RB2 Options
While we are unlikely to find players as good as Williams and Mostert in the same season again from the depth of the position, one thing about them that stands out is that they fit the mold of what we look for when selecting cheaper running backs that are not the lead options on their team.
This is often where gamers get handcuffing the position wrong.
When drafting reserve running backs, you should not be looking for running backs specifically attached to front-end options, but ones that are attached to that fragile group of discounted RB1 options that we highlighted earlier.
Since 2010, there have been 90 running backs selected as the second or later running back on their roster who also ended the season as a top-24 scorer.
70 of those 90 running backs (77.8%) were attached to lead backs who were being selected outside of the top 12 of the position.
Even more of a micro-edge is that 37 of those 70 players (52.9%) were attached to RB1 picks coming specifically from the “dead zone”.
Remember when Cam Akers was going off the board as an RB2 last season?
We have had a running back who was the RB2 or later on his roster finish as an RB1 in every season since 2010.
Since 2010, there have been 32 team RB2 or later options to finish as RB1 scorers.
25 of them were attached to RB1 options being selected outside of the top 12 with 15 of them attached to backs specifically in the “dead zone”.
When grabbing bench backs and throwing darts at the position, use the “dead zone” and those discounted RB1 picks to your advantage by taking backs attached to those players.
Especially the ones who are not younger pass catchers.
This is where Ty Chandler stands out as a calculated dart throw.
Zach Charbonnet and one of the Chicago backups are close to knocking on that door.
Trey Benson has a good amount of contingency value priced in since nearly everyone expects James Conner to miss some time yearly.
We also have nebulous RB1 draft picks in Tony Pollard, Zack Moss, Devin Singletary, Javonte Williams, Brian Robinson, Gus Edwards, Nick Chubb, Jonathon Brooks, Ezekiel Elliott, and Gus Edwards.
Those are backfields we can highlight as having the most value potential. Tyjae Spears, Tyrone Tracy, Chase Brown, Austin Ekeler, Rico Dowdle, Jaleel McLaughlin, Kimani Vidal or JK Dobbins, and Chuba Hubbard are among the names that should be circled as drafts progress and rosters get filled out.
Top takeaways:
- The continued decline of running back opportunities created significant volatility at the position in 2023
- Despite RB1 production being more volatile in 2023, the “dead zone” was still very real
- RB1 backs have carried the highest floors and ceilings, but things immediately become sketchy afterward
- Avoid spending a lot of time in the RB2 range of drafts unless that player is a young pass catcher
- When selecting a team RB1 who is discounted, also make sure that player is a young pass catcher
- When selecting team RB2 and bench options, target the dead zone backs and discounted team RB1 options