Fantasy Football Analysis: Colts Select Tyler Warren

The Colts added another young pass catcher to their roster, selecting Tyler Warren at No. 14 overall.

Let's examine Warren's 2025 fantasy football outlook and Dynasty value.

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Tyler Warren 2025 Fantasy Football Outlook

Warren shattered his ceiling this past year after catching 49 passes over his first four seasons at Penn State.

Warren flashed for 7 touchdowns in 2023 but was still limited playing behind Theo Johnson.

With Johnson leaving for the NFL, Warren took over, collecting 104 receptions for 1,233 yards and 8 touchdowns over 16 games.

A Swiss Army Knife, he rushed 26 times for 218 yards and 4 more touchdowns.

He went 3 of 6 for 35 yards and a touchdown throwing the ball (on this team, that may be enough to draw some attempts).

For good measure, he also had a punt.

The Mackey Award Winner was targeted on 30.5% of his routes (third among tight ends in this class), posting 2.78 yards per route (2nd).

49.6% of his targets resulted in a first down or touchdown (second).

Warren caught 61.9% (13-of-21) of his contest catches, while no tight end with as many targets as he had posted a higher rate.

He led all tight ends with 19 targets in the red zone, catching 16 for 7 touchdowns.

Warren has seen a lot of man coverage, facing man on 48.7% of his routes, the highest rate of any tight end in this draft class.

Against man coverage, he posted a robust 3.98 yards per route run while drawing a target on a class-high 42.8% of his routes.

No player (wide receivers included) in this class had more yards against man coverage than Warren’s 521.

He will face more zone coverage in the NFL, but Warren still posted 2.46 yards per route against zone coverage, while a class-high 53.5% of his targets against zone coverage resulted in a first down or touchdown.

As versatile as his production suggests, Warren played 47.3% of his snaps in the slot, 33.1% inline, and another 14% out wide while also logging snaps in the backfield and at quarterback.

From a position stance, this makes a ton of sense.

The Colts got next to nothing from their tight end unit in 2024.

They targeted their tight ends only 15.2% of the time last season, 29th in the league.

On those targets, Indianapolis tight ends combined for a league-low 39 receptions, 467 yards (31st), and 2 touchdowns (29th).

The only small slice of shade to throw his way is that this quarterback situation in Indianapolis is a short-term road block, paired with a stable of good receivers (who have already been victimized by the quarterback play).

The Colts are heading into the 2025 season with more questions than answers at the quarterback position after Anthony Richardson struggled in his second season.

Among the 36 quarterbacks to qualify for the league’s passer rating, he completed a league-low 47.7% of his passes.

The next closest player completed 60.6%.

Entering the league with significant red flags in terms of accuracy, Richardson checked every negative box in completing 10.9% fewer passes than expected (the worst in the league).

A league-high 17.8% of his passes were inaccurate throws.

The average among the players who qualified for passer rating was a 10.6% inaccurate throw rate.

Richardson took a high rate of throws that came with a decreased success rate.

He averaged a league-high 12.2 air yards per pass attempt.

That was the highest rate since Tim Tebow in 2011 (12.9 yards downfield).

A league-high 22.7% of his passes were 20 or more yards downfield.

Tebow’s 2011 season was the only season with a higher rate (24%) since the data has been tracked.

Richardson completed only 34.4% of his passes (44 of 128) 10 or more yards downfield, the lowest rate in the league.

The only other seasons with a lower rate since 2010 were DeShone Kizer in 2017, at 32.7% (55 of 168), and Tebow in 2011, at 33.1% (48 of 145).

That’s a lot of Tebow popping up as the closest comparable seasons.

It is easy to make some excuses here based on Richardson's taking a high rate of inefficient throws, suffering a high rate of drops, and poor offensive line play.

However, the bottom line is that Richardson still struggled to cash in on the free squares required to keep an NFL offense on schedule.

Richardson completed 60.3% of his passes on throws under 10 yards downfield, the lowest rate in a season since C.J. Beathard in 2017 (58.3%).

From a clean pocket, Richardson had a 16.8% inaccurate throw rate. The average was 9.3%.

This is why we saw Richardson benched for a stint last season.

The team has added Daniel Jones on a one-year contract to create competition this offseason.

The only player Jones finished ahead of last season in rating (79.4) was Richardson (61.6).

The odd part about Jones's addition is that these quarterbacks play a different style despite subpar efficiency, which complicates the consistency of this offense.

While Richardson is a high-variance player who wants to push the ball downfield and take shots with his arm strength, Jones is a low-ceiling player who has needed hand-holding in coaxing out the best spurts of his career in New York.

We highlighted that Richardson took the most shots downfield of any quarterback.

Since Jones entered the league in 2019, he has averaged 7.3 air yards per pass attempt, 38th among 45 qualifying quarterbacks.

Just 8.7% of his career throws have gone 20 or more yards downfield (43rd).

To compound matters, Jones has struggled in the short passing game.

On that same list of 45 quarterbacks, he ranks 40th in rating on throws under 10 yards downfield.

You can make excuses for Jones based on the quality of pass catchers he had in New York, but he was 31st in that department last season with the addition of Malik Nabers.

Playing alongside Michael Pittman, Josh Downs, Adonai Mitchell, and Alec Pierce, paired with the quarterback play, does make Warren more of a tougher bet as a rookie for 2025 value, but there is plenty of fluidity here for dynasty purposes.

The Colts could have a new quarterback as early as next season.

They have a potential out on Pittman’s contract after this season, and Pierce is an unrestricted free agent.