The Seahawks continued their offensive redesign by signing Cooper Kupp to a three-year, $45 million contract.
Kupp stays in the division, getting to play the Rams at least twice a year, and is joining a depth chart that has serious questions behind Jaxon Smith-Njigba.
Let's examine the 2025 fantasy football outlook for Kupp, Smith-Njigba, and the rest of the Seahawks passing attack.
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Cooper Kupp 2025 Fantasy Outlook
Before discussing his fit with the Seahawks, we have to look at Kupp's decline over the last several seasons with the Rams.
Per Warren Sharp
Cooper Kupp‘s decline the last couple of years has been both visible and measurable.
And it has been massive.
Per ESPN's player tracking data, Kupp's rank in ability to get “open” over the last four years:
2021: #15 of 160
2022: #71 of 150
2023: #102 of 153
2024: #141 of 159Kupp ranked #11 out 11 Rams pass catchers in success rate last year.
He gained just 4.0 yards after the catch, which was #9 of 11 on the Rams last year.
His 4.0 YAC was a career low and followed a downward trend:
2021: 5.8
2022: 5.5
2023: 5.4
2024: 4.0Lastly, 72 of his 100 total targets came within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage.
But his catch rate on those shorter targets has declined massively over the years:
2020: 80%
2021: 80%
2022: 87%
2023: 69%
2024: 71%His success rate in 2024 of just 35% was a career low as well and part of a big trend.
Look at his success rate (and rank among WRs) since 2020 on targets of less than 10 yards:
2021: 57% (#14 of 59)
2022: 56% (#17 of 60)
2023: 46% (#34 of 57)
2024: 35% (#57 of 59)
The stats back up the eye test, with Kupp looking noticeably less effective in 2024.
On the other side of these arguments, Kupp still earned targets last season even when Puka Nacua was on the field with him.
On 243 pass plays with both Kupp and Nacua on the field last season, Nacua earned a massive 37.7% target rate per route, but Kupp was still targeted on 24.2% of his routes on those snaps.
That target rate would have ranked 21st among qualified receivers last season, and that was with Kupp as the No. 2 option, albeit in a target concentrated offense.
And while Kupp was worse after the catch and has been trending down for a couple of seasons, he still ranked 47th among 103 qualified receivers in YAC per reception.
His depth of target does help him in that stat, but Next Gen Stats still had him slightly above YAC expectation per catch.
There is little doubt that Kupp has taken a step back, but he is taking that step back from a pretty high peak.
An Adam Thielen with the Panthers kind of fantasy existence is not out of the question for Kupp in 2025 given what the Seahawks have outside of Jaxon Smith-Njigba on the depth chart.
That is not a high-upside fantasy role, especially with Smith-Njigba perhaps operating in the same areas of the field in an offense we expect to lean more on the run in 2025 under new OC Klint Kubiak.
Still, Kupp is landing on a weak depth chart and is getting paid good money.
It is fair to expect a solid share of the targets for him when he is healthy.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba 2025 Fantasy Outlook
As for Jaxon Smith-Njigba, this signing is interesting in what it likely says about how the new offensive staff plans to use him this season.
Through two years, Smith-Njigba has played 73.3% of his snaps in the slot and averaged 7.63 air yards per target.
That was up to 8.66 air yards per target last season, but that still ranked 83rd among qualifying receivers, just a few spots ahead of Cooper Kupp.
Kupp played 63.2% of his snaps from the slot last year and has lined up there on 60.2% of his snaps over the last five seasons.
We also have the question of scheme after new OC Klint Kubiak used 11 personnel on just 33.3% of New Orleans' offensive snaps last season, the second lowest rate in the league.
The Saints did have massive injury problems at receiver, but Kubiak comes out of the Shanahan coaching tree, and both the 49ers and Dolphins finished in the bottom five of 11 personnel usage last year.
Given where Kupp is in his career and what we might expect in terms of formations in Seattle, it seems likely that Smith-Njigba will be asked to win more from the outside in his third season.
That could open up more fantasy upside per target — JSN was 24th among qualifying receivers in fantasy points per target last season — but it also could put him in a less comfortable position.
Among qualifying receivers last season, Smith-Njigba ranked 26th in yards per route run from the slot.
He ranked 65th in yards per route run when lined up out wide.
Smith-Njigba took a big step forward in year two, and it is reasonable to assume he will continue to improve.
He also was a better receiver than Kupp last season, so viewing him as the No. 1 in this situation also makes sense.
But there are fit questions here, and Kupp does offer a lot more theoretical target competition than even a mid-round rookie might have.
Ultimately, this is something of a hit to Smith-Njigba's fantasy projection for 2025.
