It was an exciting week of football that produced four new names atop the list, showing there has been some volatility in weekly fantasy scoring.
All this starts with Week 10's scoring leader, Christian Kirk. The Cardinals-Buccaneers macthup went well for Kyler Murray and Kliff Kingsbury truthers as the jokingly dubbed “horizontal raid” passing attack finally went vertical, with Kirk as the main beneficiary. Having failed to reach the endzone entering the week, he racked up 37.8 points on only 10 targets, achieving 6/138/3. This was easily the lowest targets and receptions among the top 5 WRs this week, which at first suggested he had broken off some large YAC plays. What actually changed was his Air Yards (199) up from his previous average of 76, meaning he was mostly thrown open on deep passes and caught his TDs close to or inside the endzone.
I’m unsure if his role has changed and the offense will continue to make more deep throws or if this was just a product of the matchup against the Bucs defense that shuts down the run and funnels offenses towards the pass. This was a fun showcase for the potential of the Air-Raid offense in the NFL. As Larry Fitzgerald continues to fade, Kirk has a chance to shine in his role as the top WR target in Arizona.
Second is Giants WR, Darius Slayton, who scored 34.1 points, going 10/121/2 on 14 targets in a 34-27 shootout loss to the Jets. Slayton has been producing TDs, ranking ninth at the position but not above 24th in anything else. His average targets (5.6) and receptions (3.4) have been disappointing. Additionally, he gets almost no YAC with 38 this week and a previous high of only 13. He does have some chemistry with Daniel Jones, having practiced with him before they were starting, but with a catch rate just above 60%, he is likely going to be a TD or bust option most weeks. He is clearly benefiting from both Evan Engram and Sterling Shepard missing time, and that is unlikely to continue once either one returns.
Third this week is MVP candidate Lamar Jackson, who is back for the third time, with 33.4 points. The most impressive aspect is he managed that many points on only 17 pass attempts! He completed 15 throws (88%) for 223/3/0 and once again used the Konami Code, adding 7/65/1 rushing. When Jackson runs the ball, it just looks like someone is playing Madden with the all the stats maxed out. He is on pace to easily break Michael Vick’s single-season rushing record of 1,039 yards and has continued to show improvement as a passer. He is the highest-scoring and most consistent QB in fantasy with 28.7 PPG and only one week outside the top 12. An argument can be made for him to be ranked ahead of Mahomes at least some weeks, especially considering the insane floor his rushing provides.
In fourth is Derrick Henry with 33.1 points on 23/188/2 adding only two catches for three yards against the Chiefs. Entering Week 10, Kansas City had given up 35.5 PPG to opposing backs, ranking second to last. Henry fell right in line with that for his best game of the year and his fifth as a top 12 RB. He ranks second in rush attempts and fourth in rush yards, but is way down at 43rd in targets (1.9/Game). Therefore, he is more dependant on breaking off long runs and getting TDs than most RBs, especially in PPR.
He has far exceeded his average Fantasy Points Over Expectation (FPOE) of 3.7, in the last two weeks with 13.9 and 16.4, but his only other week over 5 FPOE was Week 1. I’d expect some quick regression and look to trade him while his stock is high in PPR leagues. However, there is an argument to be made that Henry’s recent boost in production is correlated with the Titans' improved offense since Ryan Tannehill took over as the starting QB in Week 7. It is a situation worth monitoring going forward, as the sample size is too small to be sure yet.
Tyreek Hill concludes the list this week with, surprisingly, his first appearance. He picked up 11/157/1 on a career-high 19 targets, (his previous high was 14), earning 33 fantasy points. He also had one rush for three yards. Outside of the first week in which he left with an injury, Hill has been consistently good this year, averaging 23 PPG and exceeding 25 in three of five games already. Currently ranked second in FPOE per game, he has yet to rank worse than ninth in his career, showing that the nature of his high-ceiling performances are anything but fluky outliers. Averaging 154.4 Air Yards per game and with Patrick Mahomes at QB, there is simply no better deep threat in the game than Hill.
This is his first week exceeding 10 targets, though some of his recent play has been without Mahomes. If Hill gets peppered with 10+ targets per game, there isn’t another WR I’d prefer over him. His consistency has been a bit surprising and I’m interested to see if he can maintain it for the remainder of the season.